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Outlook for Saturday, February 28

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, February 24	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, February 25	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, February 26	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, February 27	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, February 28	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210931 SPC AC 210931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

At the start of the forecast period, a dry airmass will remain across much of the United States. The culprit being a large surface anticyclone located across the northern Gulf Coast states suppressing moisture return. By late Tuesday (Day 4), the anticyclone will have moved into the eastern Gulf, with southerly winds advecting moisture northward into the Southern Plains.

Thunderstorm chances may return to portions of the Southern Plains into the Southeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a surface cold front pushes south into the area. At this time, the quality of the moisture return and poor lapse rates suggests limited, if any, severe potential as the front moves through.

The aforementioned front will stall/wash out across the northern Gulf states late on Thursday into Friday (Days 6 and 7) with modest moisture return developing across the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday (Days 7 and 8). This will be short lived as ensemble guidance suggests a seasonably strong cold front moving into/through the Southern Plains next weekend or early the following week. Once again, current guidance indicates the quality of moisture return and poor lapse rates should limit any severe potential.

..Marsh.. 02/21/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, February 21: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, February 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, February 23: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, February 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, February 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, February 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, February 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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