Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, March 1

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, February 25	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, February 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, February 27	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, February 28	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, March 1	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220958 SPC AC 220958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

A sharp mid-level trough will move across the US early in the forecast period (Wednesday and Thursday – Days 4 and 5). This wave will induce surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on Wednesday, and this low will quickly move east across the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will draw Gulf moisture northward across much of the Southeast.

Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop on Thursday along and head of an eastward advancing cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. Forecast soundings and low-level wind fields show strong low-level wind fields atop a cool, moist boundary layer. Despite little to any instability, strong convergence along the cold front may support a narrow band of forced ascent. Given the strength of the low-level wind fields, a few strong wind gusts may reach the surface across portions of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday afternoon/evening, even absent lightning. Confidence in the specifics of this evolution are too low to warrant severe probabilities, but will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

This cyclone will push a front south toward the northern Gulf coast by Friday, where southward advancement will stall. This front should wash out/redevelop northward next weekend as southerly flow takes hold and begins to advect moisture northward.

..Marsh.. 02/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, February 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, February 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, February 24: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, February 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, February 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, February 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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