Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, March 2

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, February 26	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, February 27	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, February 28	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 1	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, March 2	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230837 SPC AC 230837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

The upper-air pattern across the US will remain characterized as broad, fast, northwest flow for most of the forecast period. Embedded within this flow, a series of shortwave troughs will move across the US. The first, and potentially most impactful of these troughs will move across the eastern US on Thursday and Friday (Days 4 and 5).

A surface low will develop across portions of the Tennessee Valley early in the day Thursday in response to increasing large-scale ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This low will quickly move east then northeast, pushing a cold front through much of the Southeast US. A couple days of moisture return will result in surface dewpoints in the 50Fs to perhaps low 60Fs ahead of this cold front. Despite poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy profiles, strong convergence along the front should yield a narrow band of forced ascent/convection. A strong low-level jet and curved low-level hodographs indicated in forecast soundings may support a few isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado or two with this convection, even absent widespread lightning. Although confidence is increasing that a band of strongly forced convection will occur along the cold front, confidence remains too low in where damaging wind gusts/brief tornado may occur to introduce unconditional 15% severe probabilities.

In the wake of this cold front, the severe potential looks to be rather limited as surface moisture is suppressed south into the northern Gulf until next weekend at the earliest, when southerly return flow should develop across Texas and Oklahoma.

..Marsh.. 02/23/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, February 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, February 24: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, February 25: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, February 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, February 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, February 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, March 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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