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Outlook for Tuesday, March 3

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, February 27	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, February 28	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, March 1	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, March 2	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, March 3	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240946 SPC AC 240946

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

The severe potential will remain low through this forecast period as the atmosphere undergoes a pattern change.

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that in the wake of a departing trough, a frontal boundary will stall across the northern Gulf Coast on Friday (Day 4), largely confining appreciable low-level moisture to the Gulf. The front remains loosely in place until late this weekend (Sunday – Day 6) when it washes out and redevelops farther north. This occurs coincident with a transition of the upper-air pattern from a single belt of broadly northwest flow to a split flow regime (ridge over trough).

By early next week (Days 7 and 8) an expansive upper-level ridge will take shape across much of the US while a closed low develops and then opens up beneath this ridge across the Southwest. The position and evolution of the closed low should place modest southwest flow across much of the Plains by the end of the forecast period. Southerly winds to the east of the resulting High Plains lee trough should support a gradual moistening of the Plains' low-level environment.

Although ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement about the large-scale pattern evolution, considerable differences exist with the finer details, such as quality and northward extent of the moisture return, timing of specific feature evolution, and resulting placement of any precipitation potential – including thunderstorms. In any event, the overall resulting pattern and pattern recognition favors an increase in thunderstorm and perhaps severe potential across the central US just beyond this forecast period.

..Marsh.. 02/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, February 24: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, February 25: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, February 26: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, February 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, February 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, March 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, March 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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