Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 4

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, February 28	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, March 1	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, March 2	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, March 3	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, March 4	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 251039 SPC AC 251039

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Ensemble guidance continues to support a large-scale change to the overall upper-air pattern during this forecast period. The western ridge/eastern trough should flip, evolving toward a western trough and eastern ridge. As this happens, southwest mid-level flow into the central US will support a gradual warming/moistening of the Plains' low-level environment. Details of how far north and the overall quality of the moisture return remain to be seen.

This moisture return will begin in earnest on Saturday (Day 4) as southerly winds take hold across the central US. However, a cold front will suppress this low-level moisture south into central Texas on Sunday and Monday (Days 5 and 6), with some guidance members suggesting a reinforcing frontal push on Tuesday.

By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions of the central US just beyond this forecast period.

..Marsh.. 02/25/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, February 25: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, February 26: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, February 27: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, February 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, March 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, March 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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