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Outlook for Thursday, March 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 1	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, March 2	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 3	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260956 SPC AC 260956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Early in the forecast period a transition across the western US will take place as the low-amplitude ridge over the Great Basin/Southwest shifts eastward, giving way to an amplifying trough over the West. Several speed maxima are forecast to traverse the flow while it remains primarily northwesterly over the central US early in the period. At the surface, uncertainty remains regarding the southern extent of the arctic front pushing into the Plains on Day 3. Uncertainties in the position of this front will cause low confidence in the projected quality of the low-level moisture recovery across the southern Plains through Tuesday. As the upper-air pattern across the central US transitions from northwesterly to southwesterly, and return flow commenses, the shallow nature of the modified arctic airmass may initially limit the northward penetration of the richest theta-e air.

As the period progresses into Wednesday and Thursday, ensemble guidance remains in general agreement regarding the transition to an amplified western trough and central-to-eastern ridge. However, the timing and phasing of individual shortwaves moving into the Plains remains a source of forecast uncertainty.

The first meaningful shortwave is forecast to eject into the Plains early Wednesday, inducing surface cyclogenesis that should support a northward advancement of the warm sector. Any severe risk with this trough on Wednesday (Day 7) will be predicated on the evolution of the moisture return on prior days.

On Thursday, a second, more potent trough is forecast to approach the Plains. Current ensemble guidance shows quite a bit more variance with the timing, amplitude, and evolution of this second trough. Some guidance brings this wave out as single, potent trough, with other guidance suggesting a series of more subtle shortwave troughs ejecting into the Plains from Thursday into Saturday. These discrepancies will have an impact on the location, timing, and magnitude of any potential severe weather threat.

Despite these timing differences, the synoptic setup (increasing low-level moisture, strengthening southwest flow aloft, repeated cyclogenesis) is favorable for organized severe weather over the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. While the severe weather threat should increase by Wednesday and Thursday (Days 7 and 8), the specific orientation of frontal boundaries and the northward extent of the moisture return will be highly dependent on the evolution of the upper-lows. Given that models tend to struggle with handling the details of pattern changes, will hold off on trying to highlight any specific corridor for severe probabilities for Wednesday and Thursday at this time.

..Marsh.. 02/26/2026

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, February 26: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Friday, February 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, February 28: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, March 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, March 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, March 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, March 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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