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Outlook for Friday, March 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, March 2	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, March 3	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, March 4	15%
Day 7	Thursday, March 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, March 6	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270959 SPC AC 270959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5

At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move across California on Monday as zonal flow remains in place over the central and eastern U.S. On Tuesday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as flow becomes southwesterly in the south-central states. A moist airmass will likely be in place on Monday and Tuesday from eastern parts of the southern Plains into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening across parts of the moist airmass. In areas that destabilize the most, a marginal severe threat may develop.

Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8

On Wednesday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains, as an associated mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into the southern Plains, as a moist airmass spreads northward from north Texas into southern and eastern Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms appear most likely to form along the cold front, and further south across parts of the warm sector. Moderate deep-layer shear is evident on model forecasts which should support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening, with a potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. While confidence is high enough to add a severe threat area across the southern Plains, variance does exist concerning the timing of the shortwave trough. If the trough moves across the southern Plains faster, then the area could need to be adjusted.

On Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to eject northeastward into the Great Lakes region, as a large upper-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Southwesterly mid-level flow will likely be in place over parts of the Great Plains, with a moist and unstable airmass remaining over much of Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. At this time, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the threat because some solutions move a shortwave ridge northeastward across the south-central U.S.

On Friday, model forecasts suggest that a large-scale upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the southern and central Plains, where a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place. However, a significant amount of variance exists among the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude and spacing of any severe threat.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, February 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, February 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, March 1: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, March 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, March 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, March 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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