Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, March 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, March 16	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, March 18	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110752 SPC AC 110752

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Sat-Mon

An upper trough will begin to deepen as it moves over the northern Rockies and into the northern/central High Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. As this occurs, a lee cyclone will deepen as it shifts east across the central Plains toward the MO Valley by early Sunday. Modified Gulf moisture will return northward in response to increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant cold front. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that any deeper/higher quality moisture will remain confined to east TX and the immediate Gulf coast on Sunday. With northward extent into the Mid-South, Mid-MS and Lower OH, and TN Valleys, 50s F dewpoints appear more likely. The upper trough will intensify and shift east across the Midwest and south-central U.S. on Sunday, but stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from better quality moisture return. While some severe potential could develop from east TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys as a strong cold front tracks east across the central U.S. on Sunday, probabilities appear less than 15 percent at this time.

This system will shift east across the eastern U.S. on Monday, though any severe potential along the East Coast appears low at this time as the primary forcing for ascent lags behind the surface front.

Days 7-8/Tue-Wed

An amplified upper ridge will build across the western U.S. during the end of Tuesday and Wednesday while upper troughing persists across the East. Surface high pressure and the prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf will leave a stable and dry airmass in place, precluding severe potential.

..Leitman.. 03/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, March 11: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, March 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, March 13: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, March 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, March 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, March 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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