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Outlook for Tuesday, March 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, March 16	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100747 SPC AC 100747

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat as a cold frontal passage and surface high pressure over the central U.S. leave a dry/stable airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies.

On Saturday, lower-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow over much of the U.S. will amplify as a shortwave upper trough deepens over the Rockies and emerges over the High Plains by Day 6/Sunday morning. As this occurs, modest Gulf moisture will return northward across east TX into the Mid-South. A strong surface low is forecast to move across the Upper Midwest on Sunday as the upper trough continues to dig and shift east into the Midwest. This will bring a cold front southeast across portions of the Plains and Midwest. Some severe potential could develop across central portions of the U.S. on Day 6/Sunday as the cold front sweeps eastward, but confidence is low given a lack of deeper moisture return overlapping with stronger shear across the Midwest.

As the upper trough and surface cold front continue east on Day 7/Monday, some low-end severe potential could possibly develop across the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast, but confidence is low given similar concerns to those on Day 6/Sunday. With this system moving offshore by the end of the period, severe potential appears low on Day 8/Tuesday.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, March 10: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Wednesday, March 11: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, March 12: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, March 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, March 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, March 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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