Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, March 20

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, March 16	30%
Day 5	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, March 18	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, March 19	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, March 20	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130858 SPC AC 130858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast.

Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.

There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.

Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.

Beyond Monday/D4, stable air behind this system will likely preclude any severe threat through Friday/D8.

..Jewell.. 03/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, March 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, March 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, March 15: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Monday, March 16: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Tuesday, March 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, March 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, March 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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