Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Saturday, March 21

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, March 17	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, March 18	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, March 19	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, March 20	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, March 21	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140850 SPC AC 140850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

On Tuesday/D4, a large upper trough will move across the Northeast, though the associated surface cold front will already be well offshore the East Coast with high pressure over land. Behind this upper trough, models indicate a large upper ridge will be situated over the Southwest for several days, with a northwest flow pattern across the Plains. Given this pattern, minimal appreciable moisture return is expected over the CONUS, and severe storms appear unlikely through Saturday/D8.

..Jewell.. 03/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, March 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, March 15: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 45%
Monday, March 16: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Tuesday, March 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, March 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, March 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.