Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, March 22

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, March 18	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, March 19	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, March 20	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, March 21	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, March 22	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150850 SPC AC 150850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe storms appear unlikely across the CONUS for the D4-8 period, as an upper ridge holds over the Southwest with a mean upper trough over the East. This pattern will keep a surface high over much of the east/southeast CONUS, with northerly winds over the Gulf Of America for much of the period.

Models do indicate the upper ridge over the Southwest may weaken into the Sat/D7 and Sun/D8 time frame, with perhaps the pattern trending toward zonal. Even so, potential for any significant instability to develop over land remains minimal.

..Jewell.. 03/15/2026

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, March 15: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 45%
Monday, March 16: TORNADO: 15%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 60%
Tuesday, March 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, March 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, March 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, March 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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