Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, March 23

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 19	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, March 20	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 21	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 22	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, March 23	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160646 SPC AC 160646

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

A northwest flow regime will persist across the Plains through Saturday/D6 as an upper high holds over the southwestern states. The ridge is expected to break down late D6 through the remainder of the period into Monday/D8, as a strong wave moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, and a weaker wave potentially moves into the Great Basin/Four Corners states on Sunday/D7. This overall pattern will maintain relatively stable conditions over most of the CONUS, with high pressure over the southeastern states including the Gulf of America. Further, as the stronger wave potentially moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, a reinforcing cold front is likely to plunge south over much of the central and eastern states into the D7/D8 time frame. While limited moisture may precede this cold front, overall potential for destabilization appears to be minimal.

..Jewell.. 03/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, March 16: TORNADO: 15%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 60%
Tuesday, March 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, March 18: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, March 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, March 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, March 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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