Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, March 24

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, March 20	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, March 21	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, March 22	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, March 23	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, March 24	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170612 SPC AC 170612

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest from Fri/D4 into Sat/D5, but will begin to flatten as a progressive, low-amplitude wave moves into the far northern Rockies and Plains. This feature is then forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes and Northeast during the Sun/D6 to Tue/D8 period, while an upper ridge possibly re-builds over the Southwest. However, predictability becomes low for that pattern change.

In association with the northern wave, low pressure with a trailing cold front may develop from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic from Sun/D6 into Mon/D7. Given the antecedent dry conditions, only marginal moisture return and destabilization are expected. While this may support scattered thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley region on Sunday/D6, substantial severe weather is not anticipated.

Behind that system, a reinforcing high will likely spread south across the Plains and much of the East, resulting in stable conditions.

..Jewell.. 03/17/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, March 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, March 18: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, March 19: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, March 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, March 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, March 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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