Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 25

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, March 21	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, March 22	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, March 23	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, March 24	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, March 25	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180717 SPC AC 180717

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge is forecast to break down across the Southwest late Saturday/D4 into Sunday/D5, with a weak wave embedded in the northwesterly flow regime aloft. During the same time, a stronger but low-amplitude feature will move rapidly east/southeast along the Canadian border, across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.

In association with the northern/Great Lakes disturbance, a cold front is forecast to push south into the Plains on Sunday/D5, extending into the OH Valley by late in the day. This front will interact with marginal moisture return across the Mid MS/OH Valleys, and continue into the Southeast on Monday/D6. This front is forecast to be roughly parallel to the upper flow, and would likely undercut thunderstorms that develop along it. MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg seems reasonable, which will support marginal severe at best.

For the latter days of the period, the forecast becomes less predictable, however, models on a run to run basis appear to be trending toward higher heights/possible ridging over the Southwest, with little to no threat of severe storms.

..Jewell.. 03/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, March 18: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, March 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, March 20: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, March 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, March 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, March 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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