Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, March 26

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, March 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, March 23	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, March 24	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, March 25	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, March 26	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190859 SPC AC 190859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

On Sunday/D4, thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the OH Valley into the Appalachians, and perhaps as far south as the TN Valley, as an upper trough amplifies across the upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. A cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from a low over NY/PA, with perhaps lower 60s F dewpoints and MUCAPE on the order of 500-1500 J/kg possible. Models appear to have a wide range of instability values for Sunday, and as such predictability is low. However, there is at least some potential for strong to perhaps a few severe storms over the mid to upper OH Valley. The most likely scenario is for a marginal setup given the northwest flow pattern and modest-moisture-content warm sector.

This front will push south toward the Gulf Coast on Monday/D5, with high pressure building in to the north. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Monday, with another possibly amplifying across the Great Lakes/Northeast Tuesday/D6 into Wednesday/D7. As this occurs, an upper ridge is likely to exist across the Southwest, with little overall severe potential for those days.

..Jewell.. 03/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, March 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, March 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, March 21: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, March 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, March 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, March 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, March 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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