Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, March 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, March 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, March 24	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, March 25	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, March 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, March 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200842 SPC AC 200842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6

An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Carolinas Monday afternoon. Instability is forecast to be weak, but a marginal severe threat could develop in areas that heat up the most.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, northwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern two-thirds of nation. This pattern will keep a warm and dry airmass in place over the continental U.S., making thunderstorms unlikely in most areas.

Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8

Mid-level flow is forecast to become more westerly across the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible from Thursday afternoon into the overnight period across the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, as a mid-level jet streak passes through the north-central U.S. On Friday, a continued chance for thunderstorm development will be possible from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Appalachians. Although a severe threat may develop on either Thursday or Friday, low predictability exists concerning any specific scenario.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2026

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National Risk Overview

Friday, March 20: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, March 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, March 22: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, March 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, March 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, March 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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