Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, March 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, March 24	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, March 25	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, March 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, March 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, March 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210829 SPC AC 210829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6

An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday, as a surface high moves eastward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass is forecast across most of the U.S., which should be unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.

On Thursday, a low is forecast to develop in the northern U.S., as low-level moisture returns quickly northward into the parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible across this unstable airmass, mainly Thursday night, along the southern edge of a passing mid-level jet streak. The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms is expected from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley along and near a cold front. At this time, the amount of spread concerning potential outcomes is substantial. An area may need to be added once model solutions begin to agree more, and confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.

Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8

On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the Tennessee Valley, where isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The front is forecast to move southward to near the Gulf Coast by Saturday. Isolated storms would again be possible near the front. Although the current thinking is that any severe threat will be marginal on Friday and Saturday, uncertainty is substantial due to the extended range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/21/2026

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, March 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Sunday, March 22: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, March 23: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, March 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, March 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, March 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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