Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, March 29

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, March 25	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, March 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, March 27	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, March 28	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, March 29	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220840 SPC AC 220840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5

An upper-level ridge will move into the Rockies on Wednesday, as northwesterly mid-level flow remains from the Great Plains to the eastern U.S. On Thursday, the ridge will become less amplified as it moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Within this moist airmass, a pocket of moderate instability is expected by late Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible near a front along the northern edge of the stronger instability from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. A severe threat will be possible, but the magnitude of any potential threat is still uncertain.

Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8

From Friday into Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Weak instability should keep any severe threat marginal.

On Sunday, the models are forecasting a dry airmass over most of the continental U.S., suggesting the potential for storms is low.

..Broyles.. 03/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, March 22: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, March 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, March 24: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, March 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, March 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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