Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, March 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 26	15%
Day 5	Friday, March 27	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 28	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 29	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, March 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5

Strong westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. At low-levels, moisture advection is forecast to strengthen during the day from the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley as surface dewpoints gradually increase into the lower to mid 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing along and near the front. Moderate instability should develop to the south of the front, which combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is expected to be from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into western and northern Ohio, where a threat area has been added for Thursday.

On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a front moves southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Although isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the afternoon and evening, model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. This should keep any severe threat minimal.

Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8

The cold front is forecast to move southward through the Southeast on Saturday and should remain near the Gulf Coast on Sunday. In its wake, a relatively dry airmass is forecast to be in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. On Monday, some model forecasts suggest that a mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains. Low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains Monday into Monday night. If this where to occur, then thunderstorm activity would be mostly likely Monday night as a low-level jet develops. However, this scenario is highly uncertain due to the extended range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/23/2026

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National Risk Overview

Monday, March 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, March 24: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, March 25: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, March 26: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, March 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, March 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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