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Outlook for Friday, April 3

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, March 30	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, March 31	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, April 1	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, April 2	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, April 3	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270853 SPC AC 270853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An uptick in severe thunderstorm potential is expected through the upcoming work week and heading into next weekend. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for a return to mean troughing across the western to central CONUS as a long-wave ridge gradually de-amplifies and shifts east. This upper-level flow regime will promote steady lee troughing/cyclogenesis along the High Plains, which in conjunction with the placement of a surface high off the East Coast, will promote moisture return northward into the Plains and MS Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible multiple days next week as ascent associated with upper disturbances embedded within the mean flow regime overspread the moisture plume.

D4/Monday - Upper Mississippi Valley

A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to traverse the U.S./Canadian border during the D4/Monday to D5/Tuesday time frame. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis is expected across the northern Plains. A broad swath of isentropic ascent with in the warm conveyor of the developing cyclone will likely support showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms across portions of the upper MS Valley late Monday. A few deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z ECMWF, hint that the convective environment will be conducive for organized convection, including the potential for elevated supercells. However, ensemble agreement regarding this potential is limited.

D5/Tuesday - Lake Michigan Vicinity

Confidence is gradually increasing in a regional severe weather threat across parts of the upper Great Lakes for D5/Tuesday. Over the past 24 hours, model guidance has come into somewhat better agreement regarding the timing and evolution of the northern Plains surface low through as it translates east and intensifies across the Great Lakes region Tuesday into early Wednesday. Above-seasonal moisture return northward into the Great Lakes region is anticipated by late Tuesday, which should support adequate buoyancy for deep convection. Thunderstorm development appears likely along a trailing cold front as it pushes southeast into the Midwest and MS Valley. Based on ensemble guidance, the best convective environment may reside across the Lake Michigan vicinity where mid/upper-level flow should be stronger in vicinity to the upper jet and may be more orthogonal to the front and supportive of more robust convection compared to locations further south.

Despite the trend towards a more consolidated solution, notable discrepancies remain pertaining to the propagation speed of the upper wave and surface low, which introduces uncertainty in how favorably timed the strongest ascent will be with peak heating/destabilization and potential storm modes. These uncertainties preclude probabilities at this time, but highlights will likely be introduced as model consensus improves.

..Moore.. 03/27/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, March 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, March 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, March 29: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, March 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, March 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, April 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, April 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, April 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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