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Outlook for Monday, April 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, April 2	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, April 3	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, April 4	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, April 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, April 6	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300853 SPC AC 300853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Long-range guidance has come into better agreement over the past 24 hours regarding the evolution of the synoptic regime - particularly regarding the progression of an upper level trough and attendant surface low during the late-week/early-weekend period.

D4/Thursday - Midwest/Ohio Valley

A cold front pushing across the Midwest on Tuesday is forecast to stall across the OH Valley on Wednesday before advancing northward as a warm front ahead of an approaching surface low on Thursday. Northward moisture return is expected ahead of a weak cold front attendant to the low. Long-range forecast guidance suggests this will support adequate buoyancy for deep convection, and 35-45 knot deep-layer shear vectors will favor organized storms. Uncertainties regarding storm mode persist based on mean wind vectors largely parallel to the front, but some severe risk appears likely given favorable buoyancy and shear.

D5/Friday - Central/Southern Plains

Ensemble consensus is that an amplified upper trough will begin to approach the central Rockies/High Plains through the day Friday. This will promote strong lee cyclogenesis across CO/KS and a northward surge of moisture (potentially as high as low to mid 60s dewpoints) into OK and eastern KS. Thunderstorm development in proximity to the deepening low appears probable by late afternoon based on deterministic and ensemble QPF signals, and strengthening flow aloft may favor discrete storm modes for convection developing along a sharpening dryline. Ensemble guidance, notably the 00z GEFS, shows a fairly strong signal for a substantial convective environment from northern OK into eastern KS Friday afternoon (e.g. 30% probability for SCP values above 5). Despite improving agreement among deterministic and ensemble guidance, this alignment has only emerged over the past 12-24 hours. Severe probabilities will likely be needed for portions of eastern KS and northern OK if this trend holds over the next 24 hours.

D6/Saturday - Ohio Valley

Similar to D5/Friday, guidance has come into better agreement regarding the intensification and northeastward progression of the surface low through D6/Saturday into the Great Lakes region. This will usher moisture northward into the OH Valley by Saturday afternoon where diurnal heating may support either development of new convection along a trailing cold front and/or re-intensification of residual convection (though the quality and extent of moisture return remains somewhat uncertain at this range). Regardless, intensifying wind fields should promote storm organization and the potential for a more widespread severe weather event. As with D5/Friday, risk probabilities will likely be needed if current model trends are maintained and confidence the moisture/buoyancy quality increases.

..Moore.. 03/30/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, March 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, March 31: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, April 1: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, April 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, April 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, April 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, April 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, April 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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