Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Tuesday, April 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, April 3	15%
Day 5	Saturday, April 4	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, April 5	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, April 6	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, April 7	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310850 SPC AC 310850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather potential will persist through the remainder of the work week and into parts of the weekend as an amplified upper wave and attendant surface low traverse the country. The cold front associated with the late-week storm system will most likely push south into the Gulf by Sunday as high pressure builds across the eastern two-thirds of the country and short-wave ridging builds aloft. This will likely limit the potential for widespread severe thunderstorms for the early portion of next week.

D4/Friday - Lower Missouri Valley into the southern Plains

The approach of an upper wave into the central U.S. will support steady intensification of a surface low across eastern KS and into the lower MO River Valley through the day Friday. This will support a northward flux of low to mid 60s dewpoints through the day, which should yield SBCAPE values on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg across northern OK into eastern KS and far western MO by late afternoon based on a consensus of model solutions. Thunderstorm development is expected as a cold front slowly begins to push southeast and overtakes a surface trough/dryline. Deep-layer shear vectors and storm motions off the boundary should promote initially discrete cells, though upscale growth is anticipated by the evening hours amid persistent ascent along the front. Regardless, long-range guidance has shown a consistent signal for a robust convective environment over the past 48 hours, and the favorable alignment of both deterministic and ensemble guidance lends high confidence in a severe threat emerging across this region Friday afternoon and evening.

D5/Saturday - Midwest/OH Valley

Friday's surface low will continue to deepen as it accelerates northeastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes by late Saturday. Northward moisture advection is expected ahead of a trailing cold front as it rapidly shifts east across the Midwest and lower OH Valley through the afternoon. Strong flow fields within the lowest few kilometers and focused lift along the front will likely support some degree of a severe wind threat. However, guidance continues to show disagreement regarding mean wind vector orientation with the front and the degree of pre-frontal destabilization, both of which will influence the intensity of convection and the overall severe threat.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, March 31: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, April 1: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, April 2: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, April 3: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, April 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, April 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, April 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, April 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.