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Outlook for Wednesday, April 8

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, April 4	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, April 5	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, April 6	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, April 7	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, April 8	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010827 SPC AC 010827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Some degree of severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend across portions of the Great Lakes/OH Valley and possibly across the Mid-Atlantic. Heading into next week, a combination of building surface high pressure behind a synoptic cold front and the re-establishment of an upper ridge over the West will limit severe weather chances.

D4/Saturday - Great Lakes/OH Valley

An upper wave and attendant surface low are forecast to quickly translate from the Plains into the Great Lakes region late Friday through Saturday. Moisture return immediately ahead of a trailing cold front will likely support some degree of destabilization Saturday afternoon across the Great Lakes/OH Valley; however, long-range ensemble guidance does not show high probability in surface/mixed-layer buoyancy values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Nonetheless, strong flow within the lowest 1-2 km will likely support a severe wind threat with any convection that can become sufficiently intense. While some severe risk is anticipated, the combination of a modest thermodynamic environment and disagreement regarding the timing/progression of the front through peak heating precludes risk probabilities.

D5/Sunday - Mid-Atlantic

The synoptic cold front is forecast to push off the East Coast by late Sunday, though long-range guidance shows disagreement regarding the timing of the front. Slower solutions, such as the 00z ECMWF, suggest that the frontal passage may occur during the afternoon hours when diurnal destabilization will be greatest. Strong low-level flow coupled with robust broad-scale ascent ahead of the primary upper wave may support a band of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, the general consensus among guidance at this time is that this scenario is likely the outlier solution.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, April 1: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Thursday, April 2: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, April 3: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Saturday, April 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, April 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, April 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, April 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, April 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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