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Outlook for Thursday, April 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, April 5	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, April 6	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, April 7	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, April 8	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, April 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020833 SPC AC 020833

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather potential will be limited for late weekend and into the upcoming work week based on trends in latest guidance. A strong synoptic cold front is forecast to push from the Appalachians and lower MS Valley east/southeastward towards the East Coast and northern Gulf through the day Sunday. While some severe threat may materialize across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon, it will be conditional on favorable timing of the frontal passage with the diurnal heating maximum. The frontal passage will shunt appreciable low-level moisture offshore by early Monday. Building surface high pressure over the central to eastern CONUS through early week will maintain dry and stable conditions east of the Rockies. Additionally, the amplification of an upper ridge over the West will limit thunderstorm chances across the Intermountain West. This synoptic regime will limit moisture return back into the Plains with most guidance suggesting that appreciable moisture return (55+ dewpoints) may not return to the Plains until the D8/Thursday time frame. Consequently, the potential for severe convection will be limited through at least the middle of the upcoming week.

..Moore.. 04/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, April 2: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Friday, April 3: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 30%
Saturday, April 4: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, April 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, April 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, April 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, April 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, April 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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