Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, April 11

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, April 7	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, April 8	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, April 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, April 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, April 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040844 SPC AC 040844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5

A large area of surface high pressure will settle in across the continental U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated dry and cool airmass will limit thunderstorm potential in most areas.

Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8

On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the central Plains and stall, as moisture advection takes place to the south of the front over much of the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to setup over west Texas Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front and to the east of the dryline. An isolated severe threat will be possible in the afternoon and evening. Models differ considerably on the distribution of instability, with some suggesting that instability will remain relatively weak. This would keep any severe threat marginal in most areas.

On Friday and Saturday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over the southern half of Texas, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward across the region. Lift associated with this feature would support scattered thunderstorm development. The greatest severe potential both Friday and Saturday appears to be across south-central Texas, where the models have moderate deep-layer shear and sufficient instability. At this extended range, uncertainty concerning magnitude and spacing is substantial.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, April 4: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 15%
Sunday, April 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Monday, April 6: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, April 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, April 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, April 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, April 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, April 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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