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Outlook for Monday, April 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, April 9	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, April 10	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, April 11	15%
Day 7	Sunday, April 12	15%
Day 8	Monday, April 13	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060834 SPC AC 060834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow over the south-central U.S. is forecast to gradually transition from westerly to southwesterly. In response, low-level moisture advection will likely take place in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms will be possible near a front in the central Plains from late Thursday afternoon into the early overnight period, as a low-level jet strengthens. On Friday, weak instability is forecast to develop over much of the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across parts of this airmass. An isolated severe threat may develop in some areas, but deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak over much of the southern Plains, suggesting a more localized severe potential.

On Saturday, the potential for severe storms is expected to increase over parts of southern High Plains, as mid-level southwesterly flow strengthens. Model consensus suggests that the greatest severe threat potential will be over parts of west Texas, where some models have an axis of moderate instability in place by late Saturday afternoon. Supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the afternoon and evening, with storms that develop near this instability axis.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

On Sunday, an upper-level low and an associated trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Ahead of this trough, moderate instability is forecast to develop by Sunday afternoon over much of the southern High Plains. Scattered severe storms would be possible to the east of a west Texas dryline in the afternoon and evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the approaching trough.

On Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the central U.S, with an axis of moisture and instability located in the Great Plains. Scattered severe storms will be possible from Monday into Monday night from the southern Plains northward into Upper Midwest. At this extended range, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. For this reason, will hold off on a threat area until the models show better agreement.

..Broyles.. 04/06/2026

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National Risk Overview

Monday, April 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, April 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, April 8: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, April 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, April 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, April 11: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, April 12: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, April 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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