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Outlook for Tuesday, April 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, April 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, April 11	15%
Day 6	Sunday, April 12	15%
Day 7	Monday, April 13	15%
Day 8	Tuesday, April 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070856 SPC AC 070856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

An upper-level trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific on Friday into the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow gradually strengthens over the south-central states. In response, low-level moisture advection will continue over the Great Plains. Ahead of the western U.S. trough, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. A severe threat will be possible ahead of and near the trough during the afternoon and evening.

On Sunday, the western U.S. upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a moist and moderately unstable airmass is forecast over much of the southern and central Plains by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop over much of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear appear likely to be in place, which will be favorable for severe storms. Supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado threat will be possible. An isolated severe threat may also develop in parts of the north-central U.S.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

A secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest on Monday. Ahead of this system, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Although a severe threat will be possible along much of the instability corridor, the greatest threat is expected to develop in the southern Plains, where model forecasts show the most favorable environment.

On Tuesday, model forecasts have some agreement concerning the timing of the trough, which is forecast to eject northeastward across the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the trough, there is large variance among the models concerning the distribution of instability. If a moderately unstable airmass is in place by Tuesday afternoon ahead of the ejecting system, a severe threat will be likely from the southern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, the system will probably be slower than forecast, which adds considerable uncertainty this late in the period.

..Broyles.. 04/07/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, April 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, April 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Thursday, April 9: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, April 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, April 11: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, April 12: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, April 13: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, April 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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