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Outlook for Wednesday, April 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, April 11	15%
Day 5	Sunday, April 12	15%
Day 6	Monday, April 13	15%
Day 7	Tuesday, April 14	15%
Day 8	Wednesday, April 15	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6

On Saturday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen over the central U.S., as an upper-level system moves to near the West Coast. A moist airmass will be in place over the southern and central Plains, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region. Large-scale ascent along with warming surface temperatures will result in scattered thunderstorm development over much of west Texas Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE is expected to peak near 1000 J/kg in some areas, with 0-6 km shear being in the 30 to 40 knot range over much of the southern High Plains. This should be sufficient for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible.

From Saturday night into Sunday, strong moisture advection is forecast over the Great Plains. By Sunday afternoon, moderate instability is expected to be in place over much of this airmass. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the moist sector during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts move a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet through central and northeast Texas during the afternoon and evening. If this happens, then a substantial severe threat would be possible from parts of central and north Texas into Oklahoma. Severe storms, including supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat would be possible in areas that destabilize the most.

On Monday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to remain from the southern Plains extending north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over much of the instability corridor in the afternoon and evening. The greatest potential for severe storms is forecast from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley and upper Mississippi Valley, where the models develop moderate instability and have 0-6 km shear mostly in the 30 to 40 knot range. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat will be possible.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

The western U.S. trough is finally forecast to approach the southern Plains on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass should be in place. Some solutions suggest that a mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. This would create strong deep-layer shear over parts of the moist sector, suggesting that a substantial severe threat will be possible. Although there is still spatial uncertainty regarding this scenario, current model forecasts would support supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts and some tornadoes.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the central states, with a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability in place by afternoon from northeast Texas into western Ozarks. This would be favorable for severe storms. However, at this extended range, considerable uncertainty exists concerning severe threat magnitude and spacing.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, April 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, April 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, April 10: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, April 11: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, April 12: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, April 13: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, April 14: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, April 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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