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Outlook for Friday, April 17

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, April 13	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, April 14	15%
Day 6	Wednesday, April 15	15%
Day 7	Thursday, April 16	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, April 17	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100828 SPC AC 100828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed – Central/Southern Plains to the Midwest

There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding severe potential/evolution during the Monday-Wednesday period. An upper trough will slowly pivot across the West on Monday, and emerge over the central/southern Rockies by early Wednesday before finally ejecting across the Plains and toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Wednesday. During this time, broad southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley.

On Monday, a surface low will develop over the northern/central Plains, with a dryline extending southward across KS/OK/TX and a warm front extending across southern MN/WI. Several lead shortwave impulses will move across the Plains, though height tendencies will remain mostly neutral. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing boundary layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F) will support moderate to strong destabilization. During the evening, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase across the Plains, overspreading the surface dryline. Vertically veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes would support supercells capable of all hazards, though storm coverage remains uncertain.

By Tuesday, the GFS becomes more progressive with the western trough, ejecting it into the Plains by early Wednesday, whereas the ECMWF hangs the trough back west and is slower. Nevertheless, a similar airmass will be in place across the warm sector east of a dryline across the Plains and to the south of a warm front draped across the Great Lakes. Isolated convection may develop along the dryline across the Plains, posing a supercell/all-hazards risk. Higher storm coverage appears more likely across portions of the Mid/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity closer to a surface low.

On Wednesday, the upper trough should progress from the Plains to the Great Lakes while weakening some. A surface cold front will develop southeast across portions of the central U.S. and some severe risk should persist along/ahead of this boundary. How convection evolves on Tuesday into Wednesday will impact where the greatest severe risk will develop, but at least some risk should exist from portions of the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley.

Days 7-8/Thu-Fri

Predictability is low heading into the end of the forecast period on Thursday and Friday as large spread exists among medium range guidance. However, western U.S. upper troughing may persist, suggesting some severe thunderstorm potential could persist for parts of the Plains late in the work week.

..Leitman.. 04/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, April 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, April 11: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, April 12: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, April 13: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, April 14: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, April 15: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, April 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, April 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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