Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, April 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, April 15	15%
Day 5	Thursday, April 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, April 17	15%
Day 7	Saturday, April 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, April 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120839 SPC AC 120839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Wed - Southern Plains to southern Wisconsin

An upper trough will be oriented over the central/southern High Plains Wednesday morning. This feature will shift east to the Mississippi River by Thursday morning. As this occurs, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass from TX toward the Great Lakes. Some convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery and convective evolution during the afternoon/evening. However, persistent southerly low-level flow ahead of a dryline and continued warm advection should support areas of airmass recovery. A mix of supercells and linear segments will be possible, posing an all-hazards severe risk.

Day 5/Thu

Severe potential should be lower on Thursday as the upper trough and weakens at it shifts east across the Ohio Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the TN Valley, with modest instability and limited heating tempering severe potential.

Day 6/Fri - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest

Medium range guidance has been fairly consistent the past several forecast cycles in bringing a large-scale upper eastward from the Rockies into the Plains Friday/Friday night. This should result in surface cyclogenesis across portions of the Upper Midwest with a trailing cold front extending into the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place beneath strengthening southwesterly deep-layer flow. This should support a severe risk ahead of the front.

Days 7-8/Sat-Sun

The upper trough will continue east over the eastern U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. Stronger ascent will shift northeast into Canada. Deep-layer flow parallel to the surface front and a narrowing warm sector should limit severe potential.

..Leitman.. 04/12/2026

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, April 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, April 13: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, April 14: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, April 15: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, April 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, April 17: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, April 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, April 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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