Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, April 20

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, April 16	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, April 17	15%
Day 6	Saturday, April 18	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, April 19	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, April 20	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130844 SPC AC 130844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu - Mid-South vicinity

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from eastern OK/TX to the central/southern Appalachians on Thursday. Convection is likely to be ongoing from the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley to the ArkLaTex region Thursday morning. This will likely temper downstream destabilization (and overall severe risk), but a few strong storms are possible across the Mid-South vicinity.

Day 5/Fri - Southern Plains to Iowa

Medium range guidance has been consistently showing an upper trough over the western U.S. developing eastward toward the High Plains Friday/Friday night. As this occurs, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A lee low will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, with a dryline extending across western OK/TX during the afternoon. By evening and into the overnight hours, a cold front will spread southeast across the central/southern Plains and Lower MO Valley. This pattern will support a risk of severe storms across the warm sector from OK to IA.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Some severe risk may persist into Saturday as a surface low deepens over the Great Lakes and the cold front from the Day 5/Friday period continues to sweep east across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley, becoming oriented across the Appalachians by Sunday morning. Severe potential may depend on how convection on Friday evolves and impacts the downstream airmass heading into Saturday morning, resulting in low predictability at this time. Strong surface high pressure will build across the Plains in the wake of the cold front, and Gulf moisture will become cut-off as the front pushes well south into the Gulf Basin. This should bring a reprieve from severe thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure envelops much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, April 13: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, April 14: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, April 15: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, April 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, April 17: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, April 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, April 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, April 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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