Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, October 16
Sunday, October 17
Monday, October 18
Tuesday, October 19
Wednesday, October 20
Thursday, October 21
Friday, October 22
Saturday, October 23

Outlook for Saturday, October 16

Outlook Summary

A few severe storms remain possible across parts of the Northeast States through early evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161933

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VERMONT SOUTHWARD INTO NEW JERSEY AND VICINITY

### SUMMARY

A few severe storms remain possible across parts of the Northeast States through early evening.

Northeast and Mid Atlantic

A line of storms continues to move rapidly east across VT, curling southwestward into southern NY and eastern PA. Northern parts of the line have shown relative strength, with MLCAPE to 500 J/kg, cooler temperatures aloft and stronger/backed 850 mb winds to 50 kt. A risk of damaging gusts or a QLCS tornado may persist for a few more hours as the low-topped convective line traverses the instability plume, and before the boundary layer begins to cool.

For more information see mesoscale discussion 1873.

..Jewell.. 10/16/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021/

Northeast

A high-shear/low-CAPE convective episode is expected to peak later this afternoon. A swath of frontal precip, predominately stratiform with embedded higher-reflectivity cores and sporadic lightning flashes, is ongoing from northern NY southwest through central PA. Some breaks in downstream cloud coverage should result in somewhat more robust heating across the eastern PA/NJ area south. However, buoyancy in this regime will remain meager owing to weak mid-level lapse rates. Farther north, where deep-layer ascent will be stronger, greater boundary-layer heating will likely be confined to a corridor along the Upper Hudson to Champlain Valleys. This latter region should coincide with amplification of 850-700 mb wind field this afternoon, where enlarged low-level hodographs will foster an embedded tornado risk for a brief period later this afternoon. Otherwise, a thin, low-topped QLCS is expected to evolve east-northeastward offering a threat for scattered damaging winds from strong to locally severe gusts. These threats should wane after dusk as convection spreads across New England.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Sunday, October 17

Outlook Summary

Little thunderstorm activity is expected across the U.S. on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161702

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Little thunderstorm activity is expected across the U.S. on Sunday.

Synopsis

A stable pattern will exist across most of the CONUS on Sunday with a large area of high pressure over the Rockies and Plains spreading eastward to the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. As a large upper trough swings east across the northeastern states, a cold front will quickly exit eastern ME Sunday morning, with southern parts of the front moving across south FL during the day. While moist, a midlevel subsidence inversion will exist over FL, resulting in mainly shallow convection with little lightning. However, isolated convection deep enough for lightning cannot be ruled out over far southern FL/Keys during the late afternoon.

Elsewhere, an amplified shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest near 00Z, with strong cooling aloft. Very weak instability is forecast, with any convection most likely over the ocean.

..Jewell.. 10/16/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, October 18

Outlook Summary

Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Monday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160718

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Monday.

Discussion

An upper low centered over Quebec will drift slowly southeastward with time, wile surrounding cyclonic flow lingers across the eastern states. In the West, an upper low is progged to deepen as it shifts eastward across the Intermountain region, reaching the Wyoming vicinity overnight.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail over much of the East, while a cold front moves across the Intermountain West in conjunction with the mobile upper low. Overnight, the front will begin to emerge into the northern and central Plains region – stretching from the Dakotas to the southern Rockies/southern High Plains by Tuesday morning.

As this upper low and associated surface system shift steadily eastward, cooling/steepening lapse rates aloft will provide modest destabilization, supporting development of low-topped convection, including potential for sporadic lightning. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.

..Goss.. 10/16/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, October 19

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160849 SPC AC 160849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement Day 4 (Tuesday Oct. 19) in progressing an upper low eastward out of the Rockies and across the northern and central Plains. This feature will be accompanied by an associated surface low/front that will advance across the Plains with time. With return of only modest low-level moisture (50s dewpoints) ahead of the front, minimal instability suggests that any severe risk would remain limited and isolated.

Modeled evolution of the upper low into Day 5 and beyond begins to differ amongst various models, in part due to the degree of interaction of the feature with cyclonic flow surrounding a low over northern Ontario. While it is apparent that a surface front will continue moving eastward across the U.S. through latter stages of the period, timing/location/strength of the front cannot be confidently ascertained. As such, no assessment of severe weather potential is being offered from Day 5 through the end of the period.

..Goss.. 10/16/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 20

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160849 SPC AC 160849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement Day 4 (Tuesday Oct. 19) in progressing an upper low eastward out of the Rockies and across the northern and central Plains. This feature will be accompanied by an associated surface low/front that will advance across the Plains with time. With return of only modest low-level moisture (50s dewpoints) ahead of the front, minimal instability suggests that any severe risk would remain limited and isolated.

Modeled evolution of the upper low into Day 5 and beyond begins to differ amongst various models, in part due to the degree of interaction of the feature with cyclonic flow surrounding a low over northern Ontario. While it is apparent that a surface front will continue moving eastward across the U.S. through latter stages of the period, timing/location/strength of the front cannot be confidently ascertained. As such, no assessment of severe weather potential is being offered from Day 5 through the end of the period.

..Goss.. 10/16/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, October 21

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160849 SPC AC 160849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement Day 4 (Tuesday Oct. 19) in progressing an upper low eastward out of the Rockies and across the northern and central Plains. This feature will be accompanied by an associated surface low/front that will advance across the Plains with time. With return of only modest low-level moisture (50s dewpoints) ahead of the front, minimal instability suggests that any severe risk would remain limited and isolated.

Modeled evolution of the upper low into Day 5 and beyond begins to differ amongst various models, in part due to the degree of interaction of the feature with cyclonic flow surrounding a low over northern Ontario. While it is apparent that a surface front will continue moving eastward across the U.S. through latter stages of the period, timing/location/strength of the front cannot be confidently ascertained. As such, no assessment of severe weather potential is being offered from Day 5 through the end of the period.

..Goss.. 10/16/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, October 22

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160849 SPC AC 160849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement Day 4 (Tuesday Oct. 19) in progressing an upper low eastward out of the Rockies and across the northern and central Plains. This feature will be accompanied by an associated surface low/front that will advance across the Plains with time. With return of only modest low-level moisture (50s dewpoints) ahead of the front, minimal instability suggests that any severe risk would remain limited and isolated.

Modeled evolution of the upper low into Day 5 and beyond begins to differ amongst various models, in part due to the degree of interaction of the feature with cyclonic flow surrounding a low over northern Ontario. While it is apparent that a surface front will continue moving eastward across the U.S. through latter stages of the period, timing/location/strength of the front cannot be confidently ascertained. As such, no assessment of severe weather potential is being offered from Day 5 through the end of the period.

..Goss.. 10/16/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, October 23

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160849 SPC AC 160849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement Day 4 (Tuesday Oct. 19) in progressing an upper low eastward out of the Rockies and across the northern and central Plains. This feature will be accompanied by an associated surface low/front that will advance across the Plains with time. With return of only modest low-level moisture (50s dewpoints) ahead of the front, minimal instability suggests that any severe risk would remain limited and isolated.

Modeled evolution of the upper low into Day 5 and beyond begins to differ amongst various models, in part due to the degree of interaction of the feature with cyclonic flow surrounding a low over northern Ontario. While it is apparent that a surface front will continue moving eastward across the U.S. through latter stages of the period, timing/location/strength of the front cannot be confidently ascertained. As such, no assessment of severe weather potential is being offered from Day 5 through the end of the period.

..Goss.. 10/16/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 16
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: low
WIND: 15%
Sunday, October 17
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Monday, October 18
ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, October 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, October 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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