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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, June 20

Outlook Summary

Damaging wind risk continues from southern Virginia to eastern Georgia this afternoon. The risk for very large hail with a few tornadoes also persists across parts of the Mid-Missouri Valley this afternoon into early evening. Otherwise, scattered severe storms are expected across a broad portion of the central and northern Great Plains, and over the eastern states.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 201947

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS…AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S….AND FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Damaging wind risk continues from southern Virginia to eastern Georgia this afternoon. The risk for very large hail with a few tornadoes also persists across parts of the Mid-Missouri Valley this afternoon into early evening. Otherwise, scattered severe storms are expected across a broad portion of the central and northern Great Plains, and over the eastern states.

Discussion

No substantive changes are being made to the ongoing outlook, as forecast reasoning, and general areas of greater risk, remain on track. The greatest change to the existing areas is a decrease in the expanse of both the MRGL risk area and thunder area over the southern Plains, where capping is expected to largely hinder convective risk.

Otherwise, severe risk continues over portions of the Southeast, where ongoing watches and warnings are in effect. Meanwhile, severe storms are expected to develop from the central and northern high Plains eastward across the central Plains region later this afternoon and evening.

..Goss.. 06/20/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019/

Southeast and Mid Atlantic States

A progressive shortwave trough is evident in morning water vapor imagery over AL, with other minor MCVs farther north over east TN and WV. These features will track eastward today across much of the Southeast states and Mid Atlantic region. Strong daytime heating is occurring over this region, where dewpoints in the 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg. Strong westerly flow aloft, steep low-level lapse rates, and favorable large-scale forcing will combine for an active strong/severe thunderstorm event for this region. Multiple lines and clusters of storms will traverse the area this afternoon and evening, posing a risk of damaging winds and some hail.

Northern PA/NJ/NY into New England

Persistent cloud cover is limiting heating/destabilization from northern PA/NJ northward into New England. Despite the limited thermodynamic environment, model guidance and recent radar trends suggest the potential for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very favorable vertical shear profiles for organized or even rotating storms capable of gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. However, given the weak CAPE profiles, it appears that the severe risk in this area will remain widely spaced and primarily marginal. Nevertheless, have extended the SLGT risk area northward into central NY ahead of ongoing strong activity.

NE/IA/KS/MO

A well-defined shortwave trough is moving across SD/NE this morning. 12z model guidance provides continued confidence that a cluster of intense storms will continue to develop/evolve with this feature over northeast NE and track southeastward into parts of IA/MO/KS. These storms may produce very large hail and damaging winds. This corridor may require an upgrade to ENH at 20z once mesoscale details become more clear on the evolution of the cluster of storms.

Northern and Central High Plains

Strong heating is occurring today from southeast MT into eastern WY and far eastern CO, where dewpoints in the mid 40s to lower 50s and steep mid-level lapse rates are present. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along this axis by mid/late afternoon - spreading eastward through the evening. Forecast soundings show favorable vertical shear profiles for a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. The activity which forms in eastern CO/western KS appears to have the best chance of persisting deep into the evening and spreading farther east across KS.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 21

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible Friday across parts of the northern and central Plains, southeast across the middle and lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys, to the Tennessee Valley region.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 201739

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible Friday across parts of the northern and central Plains, southeast across the middle and lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys, to the Tennessee Valley region.

Northeast Colorado vicinity

As a cold front shifts slowly southward across the central High Plains, heating of the moist post-frontal airmass across northeast Colorado will occur. Coupled with ascent ahead of the advancing upper system, focused at the surface by post-frontal upslope flow over the Front Range/Palmer Ridge, afternoon storm development is expected.

With low-level easterly/east-northeasterly flow veering/strengthening with height to southwesterly, shear will support supercell evolution. Along with large hail, locally damaging winds will be possible, along with a couple of tornadoes. The storms should grow upscale as they shift off the higher terrain through the evening, cross portions of Nebraska and northern Kansas, with continued severe risk well into the evening hours.

Mid Missouri Valley and surrounding areas

While prior convection – shifting southeastward across Missouri/Iowa early in the period – is expected to stabilize the airmass over the Mid Missouri Valley initially, heating/destabilization is expected in the wake of the storms. Though convective development will likely be hindered through much of the day, a combination of isolated development near the weak surface low/warm front expected over the area by late afternoon/early evening, and the later advance of convection from the west, should result a sizable area of scattered storms.

With favorably veering flow with height providing ample shear given moderate CAPE, organized/supercell storms are expected initially. Eventually, the approach of convection from the west should result in MCS development across this area, aided by evening development of a southerly low-level jet. Large hail and damaging winds will remain possible into the evening, along with risk for a couple of tornadoes.

Portions of the Dakotas and into Minnesota

Afternoon development of thunderstorms is expected along an arcing trough from the eastern Dakotas into northeast Nebraska, with isolated storms perhaps occurring as far northwestward as northwest North Dakota. As southwesterly flow aloft increases gradually ahead of the advancing upper trough, atop low-level southerly/southeasterly flow, organized/rotating storms are expected. Hail will likely be the predominant risk, though locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes may also occur, with risk lingering into the evening before diminishing diurnally.

Mid Mississippi/Tennessee Valley region

Though substantial differences exist across the range of models with respect to location, timing, and southeastward sustenance, a general consensus suggests that widespread convection will be ongoing across the Iowa/Missouri vicinity at the start of the period, near the northwest-to-southeast surface front and sustained by a veered/southwesterly low-level jet. Though beneath the axis of large-scale ridging aloft, a substantially moist/unstable environment persisting near the front should fuel a continuation/southeastward progression of the ongoing storms through the day. Several CAM runs suggest a fairly well-organized MCS may persist through the morning and into the afternoon – which could be accompanied by risk for locally damaging winds. Meanwhile, with at least some of the convection likely to lie to the cool side of the front, large hail with slightly elevated storms is expected. While southeastward extent of the possible convective progression remains uncertain, have expanded the MRGL risk southeastward across the Alabama/Georgia vicinity where separate/isolated strong to locally severe storms may develop during the afternoon.

Portions of West Texas

Strong heating/destabilization will occur along the dryline across portions of western Texas Friday, though the airmass should largely remain capped. Hints persist within model guidance that heating may permit local breaches of the cap however, resulting in a couple of isolated, rather high-based storms by late afternoon. Though shear will remain modest, degree of CAPE suggests robust updrafts, and attendant risk for hail and/or damaging winds with any storm which does develop. Storms should diminish into the evening as diurnal stabilization commences.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% SIG - Slight

..Goss.. 06/20/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 22

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains on Saturday.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 200719

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KS AND INTO NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHERN IA.

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains on Saturday.

Synopsis

Upper pattern consisting of a western CONUS trough and eastern CONUS ridge is expected persist into Saturday. This relatively unchanged large-scale pattern will result in continued southwesterly flow aloft across the Plains and the maintenance of a very moist air mass across eastern portions of the southern/central Plains and MS Valley.

Great Plains into the Mid MS Valley.. Frontal boundary between this very moist air mass and the drier, more continental air will likely extend from the mid MO Valley southwestward into the TX Panhandle Saturday afternoon. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous but strong diurnal heating combined with convergence along the front is still expected to result in convective initiation. Most likely location for thunderstorms will be from western OK northeastward through central KS and into northwest MO/southern IA. Deep-layer vertical shear will be modest but steep lapse rates and strong buoyancy will support strong updrafts. Primary severe threat is damaging wind gusts although some hail is also possible. Some tornado threat may materialize if robust storms develop in areas where surface winds are backed.

Eastern CO

Post-frontal upslope flow will result in vertical wind profiles supportive of supercell thunderstorms. However, questions exist regarding whether or not the air mass can destabilize enough for deep convection. A conditional threat for all severe hazards exists but uncertainties regarding destabilization preclude higher than 5% probabilities with this outlook.

Lower OH Valley into the TN Valley

A forward-propagating MCS may emerge out of the storms ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Lower OH Valley. Some isolated damaging wind gusts would be possible if this MCS materializes. However, uncertainties regarding the presence, organization, and resulting progression of this system currently preclude higher than 5% probabilities.

..Mosier.. 06/20/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 23

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200850 SPC AC 200850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance is in agreement that the western CONUS trough/eastern CONUS ridge upper pattern in place at the beginning of the extended period will break down as the upper trough becomes more progressive and moves into the Plains. However, significant differences exist regarding the speed and depth of this the system as it moves through the Plains. This results in differences in the locations most favorable for severe thunderstorms on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday, limiting predictability.

After D5/Monday, upper ridging is expected to build across the central CONUS while an upper low gradually approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. While some severe thunderstorms will be possible, the lack of stronger forcing for ascent over areas with sufficient moisture leads to low predictability regarding location and coverage.

..Mosier.. 06/20/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, June 24

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200850 SPC AC 200850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance is in agreement that the western CONUS trough/eastern CONUS ridge upper pattern in place at the beginning of the extended period will break down as the upper trough becomes more progressive and moves into the Plains. However, significant differences exist regarding the speed and depth of this the system as it moves through the Plains. This results in differences in the locations most favorable for severe thunderstorms on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday, limiting predictability.

After D5/Monday, upper ridging is expected to build across the central CONUS while an upper low gradually approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. While some severe thunderstorms will be possible, the lack of stronger forcing for ascent over areas with sufficient moisture leads to low predictability regarding location and coverage.

..Mosier.. 06/20/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 25

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200850 SPC AC 200850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance is in agreement that the western CONUS trough/eastern CONUS ridge upper pattern in place at the beginning of the extended period will break down as the upper trough becomes more progressive and moves into the Plains. However, significant differences exist regarding the speed and depth of this the system as it moves through the Plains. This results in differences in the locations most favorable for severe thunderstorms on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday, limiting predictability.

After D5/Monday, upper ridging is expected to build across the central CONUS while an upper low gradually approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. While some severe thunderstorms will be possible, the lack of stronger forcing for ascent over areas with sufficient moisture leads to low predictability regarding location and coverage.

..Mosier.. 06/20/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 26

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200850 SPC AC 200850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance is in agreement that the western CONUS trough/eastern CONUS ridge upper pattern in place at the beginning of the extended period will break down as the upper trough becomes more progressive and moves into the Plains. However, significant differences exist regarding the speed and depth of this the system as it moves through the Plains. This results in differences in the locations most favorable for severe thunderstorms on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday, limiting predictability.

After D5/Monday, upper ridging is expected to build across the central CONUS while an upper low gradually approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. While some severe thunderstorms will be possible, the lack of stronger forcing for ascent over areas with sufficient moisture leads to low predictability regarding location and coverage.

..Mosier.. 06/20/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, June 27

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200850 SPC AC 200850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance is in agreement that the western CONUS trough/eastern CONUS ridge upper pattern in place at the beginning of the extended period will break down as the upper trough becomes more progressive and moves into the Plains. However, significant differences exist regarding the speed and depth of this the system as it moves through the Plains. This results in differences in the locations most favorable for severe thunderstorms on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday, limiting predictability.

After D5/Monday, upper ridging is expected to build across the central CONUS while an upper low gradually approaches the Pacific Northwest coast. While some severe thunderstorms will be possible, the lack of stronger forcing for ascent over areas with sufficient moisture leads to low predictability regarding location and coverage.

..Mosier.. 06/20/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 20

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 45%

Friday, June 21

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Saturday, June 22

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 23

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Monday, June 24

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Tuesday, June 25

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Wednesday, June 26

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Thursday, June 27

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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