Severe Weather Outlook
new youtube channel - we've just launched a new experimental youtube channel over at tornado HQ, including severe weather outlook videos.
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, December 8
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind low
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081630
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks.
Ozarks/ArkLaTex
Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in advance of a front and dryline across Texas.
Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south.
Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the primary surface risk should be focused farther south.
A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also exist mainly across portions of Arkansas.
..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/08/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Saturday, December 9
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and large hail will be possible from east Texas to the Tennessee Valley, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 081730
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TX INTO THE TN VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and large hail will be possible from east Texas to the Tennessee Valley, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A deep, positively tilted upper-level trough will move eastward across parts of the central/eastern CONUS on Saturday. Within the larger-scale trough, an upper-level cyclone initially over MN will evolve into a shortwave that moves eastward through the day, as a surface low moves quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes region toward Hudson Bay. A trailing low-amplitude shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves from the southern Rockies toward the lower/mid MS Valley. A cold front will move across the southern Plains and eventually into parts of the Southeast, with weak surface wave development possible during the day near the ArkLaTex region.
East TX into the TN Valley
In advance of the cold front, relatively rich low-level moisture will be in place across parts of TX/LA Saturday morning, and stream northward into parts of the Southeast and TN Valley through the day. Modest diurnal heating will support moderate destabilization from east TX into the ArkLaMiss region (MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range), with more modest buoyancy (MLCAPE to near 500 J/kg) potentially extending as far north as southern KY. Meanwhile, increasing deep-layer flow/shear in advance of the approaching upper trough will support long hodographs and increasingly favorable wind profiles for organized convection across the warm sector.
Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage Saturday afternoon along and perhaps somewhat ahead of the approaching front, as low-level moistening continues and MLCINH is eroded. Effective shear of 50+ kt will be more than sufficient for supercells, though with deep-layer flow largely parallel to the front, a tendency toward a cluster and/or linear mode is expected with time. Large hail will be possible with any sustained supercells. Also, increasing low-level shear will be sufficient to support a tornado threat with any supercells that can be sustained from late afternoon into the evening, especially if a stronger frontal wave can develop. Otherwise, damaging wind and possibly embedded brief tornadoes may become the primary threat Saturday night as storms move eastward, with a gradual weakening trend expected due to diminishing buoyancy.
Severe probabilities were expanded northeastward somewhat with this outlook, due to the potential for a couple longer-lived supercells or organized bowing segments to persist into the evening. Higher probabilities were trimmed across parts of east TX, where capping and weaker large-scale ascent are expected to limit storm coverage.
..Dean.. 12/08/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Sunday, December 10
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 080822
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes.
Synopsis
An amplified, positive-tilt upper trough from ON to east TX at 12Z Sunday will take on a neutral to slight negative tilt as intense mid-level southerlies become asymmetrically confined ahead of it. This will induce surface cyclogenesis from the central/southern Appalachians across the Northeast into New England through early Monday. Greater surface low deepening should occur during the latter half of the period.
Southeast
A swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from eastern TN to the western FL Panhandle vicinity along a convergent surface cold front steadily progressing eastward. Diurnal diabatic heating ahead of this activity is still expected to be muted, with extensive low-level moistening and resultant cloudiness anticipated. Consensus of guidance, especially the 00Z deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble mean, suggests that low-level warm theta-e advection from the western Atlantic across the Carolinas will probably result in a secondary swath of convective development during the day. Amid weak mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg appears unlikely, especially where 850-mb winds greater than 40 kts are prominent. Even so, transient low-level updraft rotation will probably be occasionally noted in the relatively deeper convective elements in both the frontal and warm conveyor regions. These will be conditionally capable of producing a few brief tornadoes and sporadic damaging winds where scant to meager surface-based instability can develop.
..Grams.. 12/08/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Monday, December 11
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080851 SPC AC 080851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Above-average agreement exists with the establishment of a surface anticyclone over the East on D4/Monday, further reinforced later in the week. This will yield predominant easterly surface winds by D5/Tuesday over the Gulf and FL Peninsula, with gradual airmass modification through the rest of the period.
Curiously, both the deterministic 00Z GFS and ECMWF to varying degrees indicate surface cyclone development over the Gulf around D9/next Saturday. Although both also have fairly minor support from their respective ensemble members for this scenario.
..Grams.. 12/08/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, December 12
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080851 SPC AC 080851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Above-average agreement exists with the establishment of a surface anticyclone over the East on D4/Monday, further reinforced later in the week. This will yield predominant easterly surface winds by D5/Tuesday over the Gulf and FL Peninsula, with gradual airmass modification through the rest of the period.
Curiously, both the deterministic 00Z GFS and ECMWF to varying degrees indicate surface cyclone development over the Gulf around D9/next Saturday. Although both also have fairly minor support from their respective ensemble members for this scenario.
..Grams.. 12/08/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, December 13
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080851 SPC AC 080851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Above-average agreement exists with the establishment of a surface anticyclone over the East on D4/Monday, further reinforced later in the week. This will yield predominant easterly surface winds by D5/Tuesday over the Gulf and FL Peninsula, with gradual airmass modification through the rest of the period.
Curiously, both the deterministic 00Z GFS and ECMWF to varying degrees indicate surface cyclone development over the Gulf around D9/next Saturday. Although both also have fairly minor support from their respective ensemble members for this scenario.
..Grams.. 12/08/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, December 14
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080851 SPC AC 080851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Above-average agreement exists with the establishment of a surface anticyclone over the East on D4/Monday, further reinforced later in the week. This will yield predominant easterly surface winds by D5/Tuesday over the Gulf and FL Peninsula, with gradual airmass modification through the rest of the period.
Curiously, both the deterministic 00Z GFS and ECMWF to varying degrees indicate surface cyclone development over the Gulf around D9/next Saturday. Although both also have fairly minor support from their respective ensemble members for this scenario.
..Grams.. 12/08/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, December 15
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080851 SPC AC 080851
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
DISCUSSION
Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf. Above-average agreement exists with the establishment of a surface anticyclone over the East on D4/Monday, further reinforced later in the week. This will yield predominant easterly surface winds by D5/Tuesday over the Gulf and FL Peninsula, with gradual airmass modification through the rest of the period.
Curiously, both the deterministic 00Z GFS and ECMWF to varying degrees indicate surface cyclone development over the Gulf around D9/next Saturday. Although both also have fairly minor support from their respective ensemble members for this scenario.
..Grams.. 12/08/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, December 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: low
- Saturday, December 9
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, December 10
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, December 11
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Tuesday, December 12
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Wednesday, December 13
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Thursday, December 14
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Friday, December 15
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Your Severe Outlook
Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.
Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
About Severe Weather Outlook . com
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.
- tornado hq - live severe weather warnings
- cyclocane - hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones
- tornado solitaire - play cards while you monitor the US severe weather threat
- tertremo - live view of earthquakes around the world
- earthquake solitaire - get live earthquake updates as you play your favorite card game