Severe Weather Outlook
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, July 24
Outlook Summary
A few severe thunderstorms with wind damage, isolated large hail, and a tornado or two are possible from northern Illinois into Lower Michigan late this afternoon into this evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 242010
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
CORRECTED FOR MCD REFERENCES IN OUTLOOK TEXT
SUMMARY
A few severe thunderstorms with wind damage, isolated large hail, and a tornado or two are possible from northern Illinois into Lower Michigan late this afternoon into this evening.
20Z Update
No change has been made to the Slight Risk. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are still expected late this afternoon into this evening from northern IL into Lower MI. See MCD 1340 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390 for more information regarding the threat in Lower Michigan, and MCD 1341 for more information regarding the threat across far southeast IA into northern IL.
Isolated strong/severe storms are also possible across portions of the Southwest. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly to include portions of southwest UT and northwest NM, based on the position of ongoing strong convection that will move into portions of AZ/southern NV later this afternoon/evening. See MCD 1342 for more information regarding the threat in this region.
..Dean.. 07/24/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021/
Lower MI
A well-defined shortwave trough over WI/Upper Mi will track rapidly eastward today across Lower MI. A moist and unstable air mass is in place over this region, along with relatively strong vertical shear. Thunderstorms (including a supercell or two) are expected to develop by mid-afternoon and track across the region, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Please refer to MCD #1339 for further details.
IL/IN
By mid-late afternoon, strong instability is expected to develop along the trailing cold front from southwest Lower MI into northern IL/IN. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along this axis, although models vary significantly regarding coverage and intensity. Those storms that do form will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts through the early evening.
AZ/NV
Similar to yesterday, scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of northern AZ and southern NV. A moist boundary layer coupled with strong heating through early afternoon will help to yield MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Low-level shear is weak, but 25 knot mid-level winds will help organize westward-moving cold pools and result in the potential for gusty winds in some areas, along with hail in the higher elevations.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, July 25
Outlook Summary
Thunderstorms with isolated wind-damage potential are possible across parts of the Ohio valley and Northeast, and also across parts of South Dakota, Sunday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 241728
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST…AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA
### SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with isolated wind-damage potential are possible across parts of the Ohio valley and Northeast, and also across parts of South Dakota, Sunday afternoon and evening.
Ohio Valley into the Northeast
A belt of 30-40 kt west-northwesterly midlevel flow will largely remain in place from the northern Plains into the Northeast on Sunday, along the southern periphery of a deep mid/upper-level trough covering much of eastern Canada. An embedded midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move across New England during the morning and early afternoon, with another shortwave trough glancing northern New England Sunday night, but otherwise large-scale ascent may remain weak from the OH Valley into the Northeast through much of the period. As a result, coverage of robust afternoon thunderstorm development remains uncertain. However, a few strong storms will be possible along/ahead of a weak surface boundary sagging into the region. Effective shear of 20-30 kt will support the potential for weakly organized cells/clusters, with isolated damaging wind possible where low-level lapse rates can steepen during the afternoon.
South Dakota
Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of South Dakota by late afternoon, as MLCINH is removed by strong surface heating/mixing. Potential areas for initiation include a weak surface trough across western SD, and a weak surface boundary near the ND/SD border. Despite rather limited low-level moisture, MLCAPE is expected to rise into the 500-1000 J/kg range as temperatures increase to near or above 100F in some locations. Modest west-northwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 25-35 kt, sufficient for at least transient storm organization. A very warm and deeply-mixed boundary layer will support an isolated severe-wind risk with the strongest storms and outflows.
Southwest
As a midlevel trough continues to drift westward across Arizona, moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow/deep-layer shear may again support a few organized storms across portions of the Southwest. The areal extent of the more favorable environment is expected to be smaller than previous days, so no probabilities have been included at this time. However, a few strong cells/clusters cannot be ruled out, especially from northwest AZ/southwest UT into southern NV and perhaps southeast CA.
..Dean.. 07/24/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, July 26
Outlook Summary
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the Northeast and upper Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240729
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the Northeast and upper Mississippi Valley.
Northeast
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Northeast on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the central Appalachians and lower Great Lakes. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints mostly in the 60s F. The highest surface dewpoints are forecast to be located across northern New England where moderate instability appears likely to develop by afternoon. Convection will most likely initiate in these areas of stronger instability and in the higher terrain. The moderate instability combined with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt range (evident on forecast soundings) should support an isolated wind-damage threat. The wind-damage threat will likely be greatest along the leading edge of short multicell line segments that move into areas where low-level lapse rates are steep during the late afternoon and early evening.
Upper Mississippi Valley
A northwest mid-level flow pattern will remain in place across the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region on Monday. At the surface, a low will move southeastward into the northern Plains as a moist airmass advects northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Although the airmass should remain capped for much of the day, elevated thunderstorm development will be possible during the evening across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in north-central Minnesota during the early evening and move southeastward into north-central Wisconsin during the mid to late evening. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor have moderate instability, concentrated above 750 mb. Effective shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 kt range. This thermodynamic and wind shear profile could be enough for a marginal severe threat with elevated rotating storms being accompanied by hail and strong gusty winds.
..Broyles.. 07/24/2021
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, July 27
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240855 SPC AC 240855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
A large upper-level high will remain anchored across much of the western and central United States during the mid week time-frame. Northwest mid-level flow is forecast across much of the Mississippi Valley and eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to be located in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, with a front moving southeastward across the upper Midwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Thunderstorm development will be possible across the northern edge of the moist corridor Tuesday afternoon and evening, with storms also possible along and ahead of the front Wednesday and Thursday. Although instability and shear should be sufficient for a severe threat across parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley each afternoon and evening, uncertainty is too high to warrant adding a threat area at this time.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
Northwest mid-level flow is forecast to continue from the north-central states to the Eastern Seaboard on Friday and Saturday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward from the Tennessee Valley on Friday into the Southeast on Saturday. Moderate instability is forecast along and ahead of the front each afternoon, with thunderstorm development possible near the front. Although deep-layer shear may remain relatively weak across most of the Southeast, an isolated severe threat can not be ruled out due to the thermodynamic environment. Mesoscale uncertainty is high concerning any specific scenario this far in advance.
..Broyles.. 07/24/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, July 28
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240855 SPC AC 240855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
A large upper-level high will remain anchored across much of the western and central United States during the mid week time-frame. Northwest mid-level flow is forecast across much of the Mississippi Valley and eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to be located in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, with a front moving southeastward across the upper Midwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Thunderstorm development will be possible across the northern edge of the moist corridor Tuesday afternoon and evening, with storms also possible along and ahead of the front Wednesday and Thursday. Although instability and shear should be sufficient for a severe threat across parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley each afternoon and evening, uncertainty is too high to warrant adding a threat area at this time.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
Northwest mid-level flow is forecast to continue from the north-central states to the Eastern Seaboard on Friday and Saturday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward from the Tennessee Valley on Friday into the Southeast on Saturday. Moderate instability is forecast along and ahead of the front each afternoon, with thunderstorm development possible near the front. Although deep-layer shear may remain relatively weak across most of the Southeast, an isolated severe threat can not be ruled out due to the thermodynamic environment. Mesoscale uncertainty is high concerning any specific scenario this far in advance.
..Broyles.. 07/24/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, July 29
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240855 SPC AC 240855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
A large upper-level high will remain anchored across much of the western and central United States during the mid week time-frame. Northwest mid-level flow is forecast across much of the Mississippi Valley and eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to be located in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, with a front moving southeastward across the upper Midwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Thunderstorm development will be possible across the northern edge of the moist corridor Tuesday afternoon and evening, with storms also possible along and ahead of the front Wednesday and Thursday. Although instability and shear should be sufficient for a severe threat across parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley each afternoon and evening, uncertainty is too high to warrant adding a threat area at this time.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
Northwest mid-level flow is forecast to continue from the north-central states to the Eastern Seaboard on Friday and Saturday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward from the Tennessee Valley on Friday into the Southeast on Saturday. Moderate instability is forecast along and ahead of the front each afternoon, with thunderstorm development possible near the front. Although deep-layer shear may remain relatively weak across most of the Southeast, an isolated severe threat can not be ruled out due to the thermodynamic environment. Mesoscale uncertainty is high concerning any specific scenario this far in advance.
..Broyles.. 07/24/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 30
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240855 SPC AC 240855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
A large upper-level high will remain anchored across much of the western and central United States during the mid week time-frame. Northwest mid-level flow is forecast across much of the Mississippi Valley and eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to be located in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, with a front moving southeastward across the upper Midwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Thunderstorm development will be possible across the northern edge of the moist corridor Tuesday afternoon and evening, with storms also possible along and ahead of the front Wednesday and Thursday. Although instability and shear should be sufficient for a severe threat across parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley each afternoon and evening, uncertainty is too high to warrant adding a threat area at this time.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
Northwest mid-level flow is forecast to continue from the north-central states to the Eastern Seaboard on Friday and Saturday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward from the Tennessee Valley on Friday into the Southeast on Saturday. Moderate instability is forecast along and ahead of the front each afternoon, with thunderstorm development possible near the front. Although deep-layer shear may remain relatively weak across most of the Southeast, an isolated severe threat can not be ruled out due to the thermodynamic environment. Mesoscale uncertainty is high concerning any specific scenario this far in advance.
..Broyles.. 07/24/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, July 31
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240855 SPC AC 240855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
A large upper-level high will remain anchored across much of the western and central United States during the mid week time-frame. Northwest mid-level flow is forecast across much of the Mississippi Valley and eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist axis is forecast to be located in the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, with a front moving southeastward across the upper Midwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Thunderstorm development will be possible across the northern edge of the moist corridor Tuesday afternoon and evening, with storms also possible along and ahead of the front Wednesday and Thursday. Although instability and shear should be sufficient for a severe threat across parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley each afternoon and evening, uncertainty is too high to warrant adding a threat area at this time.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
Northwest mid-level flow is forecast to continue from the north-central states to the Eastern Seaboard on Friday and Saturday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward from the Tennessee Valley on Friday into the Southeast on Saturday. Moderate instability is forecast along and ahead of the front each afternoon, with thunderstorm development possible near the front. Although deep-layer shear may remain relatively weak across most of the Southeast, an isolated severe threat can not be ruled out due to the thermodynamic environment. Mesoscale uncertainty is high concerning any specific scenario this far in advance.
..Broyles.. 07/24/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, July 24
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, July 25
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: 5%
- Monday, July 26
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, July 27
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Wednesday, July 28
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Thursday, July 29
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Friday, July 30
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Saturday, July 31
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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