Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Wednesday, December 19
Thursday, December 20
Friday, December 21
Saturday, December 22
Sunday, December 23
Monday, December 24
Tuesday, December 25
Wednesday, December 26

Outlook for Wednesday, December 19

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190548

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight.

Discussion

A potent southern-stream mid-level trough over TX/LA will partially phase with an amplifying northern stream trough over the western Gulf of Mexico during the period. Only weak surface reflection is currently progged in the models as an effective maritime boundary perhaps advances into the Galveston Bay/upper TX coast during the morning. Forecast soundings suggest that a surface-based storm cannot be ruled out over the upper TX coast during the morning, but this scenario seems unlikely. During the day, the west-east oriented maritime warm front will probably encroach on the shelf waters in southeastern LA. Isolated thunderstorm activity over the central Gulf Coast will likely remain elevated and weak given the lack of higher theta-e penetrating the region. By late tonight, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop over the central Gulf of Mexico as increasingly stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the western 2/3rds of the Gulf Basin. Although isolated thunderstorms are possible over the FL Peninsula mainly late tonight, stunted lapse rates and only a marginal moist layer (per forecast soundings) near the west coast all indicate the probability of an organized severe thunderstorm to be unlikely prior to the start of the Day 2 period.

..Smith/Nauslar.. 12/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Thursday, December 20

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible from Florida into eastern North Carolina Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190617

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FLORIDA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible from Florida into eastern North Carolina Thursday.

Southeastern US

Very strong 12hr mid-level height falls are forecast to spread across the northern Gulf basin Thursday as a 500mb speed max intensifies to near 120kt and digs into the base of a pronounced eastern US trough over the southern Gulf by 21/12z. In response to a lead short-wave trough, a surface low is forecast to approach the FL Big Bend region by early afternoon with a trailing cold front to near the western FL Straits. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to enhance frontal convection within a strongly sheared environment. This low-latitude convection should encounter modestly buoyant air mass as favorable trajectories across the Caribbean should allow 70F surface dew points to advance ahead of the front into the southern FL Peninsula. With time, deep south-southwesterly flow is expected to force this air mass toward coastal NC; although 70F dew points will likely remain offshore through the period with a more modified air mass likely inland.

Severe squall line is expected to develop along the front over the Gulf of Mexico late day1 then progress across the FL Peninsula ahead of the front as mid-tropospheric flow intensifies across this region. There is some concern that a few supercells may evolve ahead of the squall line but the primary storm mode should be linear. Hail, wind, and a few tornadoes are possible with this activity.

During the latter half of the period, strong LLJ will evolve over the Carolinas into the Middle Atlantic. This will assist the northward advance of a warm front inland ahead of the aforementioned surface low that is expected to track across northern FL into western NC during the evening hours. Very strong wind fields will favor organized convection and there is increasing concern that near-surface based supercells may evolve across eastern NC during the overnight hours as the warm sector spreads north. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight

..Darrow.. 12/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, December 21

Outlook Summary

Low thunder potential will be noted from the southern Appalachians into portions of northern New England Friday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190750

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Low thunder potential will be noted from the southern Appalachians into portions of northern New England Friday.

Eastern US

Very strong 500mb jet, in excess of 110kt, will translate across northern FL early in the period and increase to near 140kt over the Delmarva by 22/00z before shifting into New England during the overnight hours. In response to this feature, surface low should track across western NC into upstate NY then into QC after dark. Exit region of this mid-level jet is expected to aid convective threat across portions of the Piedmont prior to cold frontal passage. Latest guidance suggest a narrow corridor of steeper lapse rates will spread northeast from northwestern SC into western MD and this should be the zone where lightning would be most concentrated. There is some concern that instability will approach levels supporting robust updrafts, especially given the very strong mid-level jet. Forecast soundings across this region do not exhibit more than weak buoyancy, but relatively steep lapse rates are expected through at least 5km. Very cold mid-level temperatures across the Piedmont would favor lightning with strongly sheared convection despite the relatively low cloud tops. Will not introduce 5% severe probs to this region yet as there is some question to the degree of buoyancy. If instability is expected to be greater across this region then a MRGL risk could be warranted and addressed at that time.

..Darrow.. 12/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Saturday, December 22

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190831 SPC AC 190831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Models are in general agreement through day4 regarding the timing and placement of varied short waves as they progress across the CONUS. Beyond day4, significant differences evolve, but there is some concern that a fairly significant upper trough may materialize over the southwestern US by mid week. If this feature does develop then substantial moisture/instability could return to TX which could lead to organized convection. Will not introduce severe probs for this scenario given the low predictability beyond day4.

..Darrow.. 12/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, December 23

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190831 SPC AC 190831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Models are in general agreement through day4 regarding the timing and placement of varied short waves as they progress across the CONUS. Beyond day4, significant differences evolve, but there is some concern that a fairly significant upper trough may materialize over the southwestern US by mid week. If this feature does develop then substantial moisture/instability could return to TX which could lead to organized convection. Will not introduce severe probs for this scenario given the low predictability beyond day4.

..Darrow.. 12/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, December 24

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190831 SPC AC 190831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Models are in general agreement through day4 regarding the timing and placement of varied short waves as they progress across the CONUS. Beyond day4, significant differences evolve, but there is some concern that a fairly significant upper trough may materialize over the southwestern US by mid week. If this feature does develop then substantial moisture/instability could return to TX which could lead to organized convection. Will not introduce severe probs for this scenario given the low predictability beyond day4.

..Darrow.. 12/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, December 25

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190831 SPC AC 190831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Models are in general agreement through day4 regarding the timing and placement of varied short waves as they progress across the CONUS. Beyond day4, significant differences evolve, but there is some concern that a fairly significant upper trough may materialize over the southwestern US by mid week. If this feature does develop then substantial moisture/instability could return to TX which could lead to organized convection. Will not introduce severe probs for this scenario given the low predictability beyond day4.

..Darrow.. 12/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, December 26

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190831 SPC AC 190831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Models are in general agreement through day4 regarding the timing and placement of varied short waves as they progress across the CONUS. Beyond day4, significant differences evolve, but there is some concern that a fairly significant upper trough may materialize over the southwestern US by mid week. If this feature does develop then substantial moisture/instability could return to TX which could lead to organized convection. Will not introduce severe probs for this scenario given the low predictability beyond day4.

..Darrow.. 12/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, December 19
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Thursday, December 20
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, December 21
ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, December 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, December 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, December 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, December 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, December 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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