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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, July 11
Saturday, July 12
Sunday, July 13
Monday, July 14
Tuesday, July 15
Wednesday, July 16
Thursday, July 17
Friday, July 18

Outlook for Friday, July 11

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120055

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains.

Midwest

Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight.

Southern High Plains

Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN.

Central High Plains

Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat.

..Grams.. 07/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, July 12

Outlook Summary

Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, and eastern Michigan on Saturday. Large hail and damaging gusts are possible over much of southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico during the afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, and eastern Michigan on Saturday. Large hail and damaging gusts are possible over much of southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico during the afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

A shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the upper MS Valley, while a separate weaker system drifts east across the central to southern Plains. Meanwhile, weak ridging will remain over the Southeast, with a stronger upper high over southern CA.

At the surface, low pressure will move across Lower MI, with drying across the upper MS Valley as winds veer. A diffuse boundary will extend southwestward into parts of MO, KS, and OK, providing a focus for storms.

Great Lakes Region

Strong heating will occur ahead of a cold front, with upper 60s F dewpoints over IN, OH, and much of Lower MI. Little cooling aloft is forecast with the glancing upper wave, but MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. Convergence within the surface trough will lead to scattered storms along the wind shift, with a few severe gusts and marginal hail possible. Low-level shear will be strongest over northern Lower MI, and an isolated supercell cannot be ruled out. Some uncertainty exist regarding overall storm coverage, as midlevel subsidence moves in late in the day.

OH/Mid MS Valleys to the southern Plains

Ongoing storms with outflow may exist from parts of the South Plains into OK Saturday morning. Any associated boundaries may provide a focus for redevelopment during the afternoon, as 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE develops. Aside from that, moist easterly low-level flow through a deep layer will be favorable for thunderstorms across almost all of Southwest TX, including the Big Bend area. While shear will be weak, lightly veering winds with height along with steep lapse rates and strong instability should lead to a few robust, slow-moving storms with localized damaging hail and downburst potential.

..Jewell.. 07/11/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 13

Outlook Summary

Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111926

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS…AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK

### SUMMARY

Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal.

VA northward into NY

Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA.

..Jewell.. 07/11/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 5 Tuesday, July 15 predictability too low
Day 6 Wednesday, July 16 predictability too low
Day 7 Thursday, July 17 predictability too low
Day 8 Friday, July 18 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110840 SPC AC 110840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A surface cold front across the southern Great Plains early in the period will quickly redevelop northward into the northern Plains in response to strong lee cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains. This cyclogenesis will occur in response to a positive-tilt short-wave trough moving through the broadly zonal mid-level flow across the northern US.

This front will move back south during the period as a seasonably strong high pressure builds southward into the central US in the wake of the aforementioned short-wave trough. Thunderstorms are likely to develop in the vicinity of the front/aggregate outflow boundary each afternoon as it moves south. However, given the lack of significant flow amplification as the mid-level wave crosses the northern US, it is likely that thunderstorms will remain displaced south of the requisite effective-layer shear needed to promote an organized severe threat identifiable at this time range.

One exception to the idea that storms will be displaced from the better shear may take place on Monday/Day-4 across portions of North Dakota. Here, low-level moisture will surge northward in response to the aforementioned northern High Plains lee cyclogenesis. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the northern Great Plains during the day, yielding most-unstable CAPE values ranging from 1000 J/kg to perhaps 3000 J/kg depending on model guidance.

However, run-to-run inconsistency in the space and time evolution of relevant features leads to little confidence in identifying where any overlap of thunderstorms, instability, and effective-layer shear might support severe thunderstorms. However, if model guidance begins to converge on potential scenarios, probabilistic delineation may become warranted in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 5 Tuesday, July 15 predictability too low
Day 6 Wednesday, July 16 predictability too low
Day 7 Thursday, July 17 predictability too low
Day 8 Friday, July 18 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110840 SPC AC 110840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A surface cold front across the southern Great Plains early in the period will quickly redevelop northward into the northern Plains in response to strong lee cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains. This cyclogenesis will occur in response to a positive-tilt short-wave trough moving through the broadly zonal mid-level flow across the northern US.

This front will move back south during the period as a seasonably strong high pressure builds southward into the central US in the wake of the aforementioned short-wave trough. Thunderstorms are likely to develop in the vicinity of the front/aggregate outflow boundary each afternoon as it moves south. However, given the lack of significant flow amplification as the mid-level wave crosses the northern US, it is likely that thunderstorms will remain displaced south of the requisite effective-layer shear needed to promote an organized severe threat identifiable at this time range.

One exception to the idea that storms will be displaced from the better shear may take place on Monday/Day-4 across portions of North Dakota. Here, low-level moisture will surge northward in response to the aforementioned northern High Plains lee cyclogenesis. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the northern Great Plains during the day, yielding most-unstable CAPE values ranging from 1000 J/kg to perhaps 3000 J/kg depending on model guidance.

However, run-to-run inconsistency in the space and time evolution of relevant features leads to little confidence in identifying where any overlap of thunderstorms, instability, and effective-layer shear might support severe thunderstorms. However, if model guidance begins to converge on potential scenarios, probabilistic delineation may become warranted in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, July 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 5 Tuesday, July 15 predictability too low
Day 6 Wednesday, July 16 predictability too low
Day 7 Thursday, July 17 predictability too low
Day 8 Friday, July 18 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110840 SPC AC 110840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A surface cold front across the southern Great Plains early in the period will quickly redevelop northward into the northern Plains in response to strong lee cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains. This cyclogenesis will occur in response to a positive-tilt short-wave trough moving through the broadly zonal mid-level flow across the northern US.

This front will move back south during the period as a seasonably strong high pressure builds southward into the central US in the wake of the aforementioned short-wave trough. Thunderstorms are likely to develop in the vicinity of the front/aggregate outflow boundary each afternoon as it moves south. However, given the lack of significant flow amplification as the mid-level wave crosses the northern US, it is likely that thunderstorms will remain displaced south of the requisite effective-layer shear needed to promote an organized severe threat identifiable at this time range.

One exception to the idea that storms will be displaced from the better shear may take place on Monday/Day-4 across portions of North Dakota. Here, low-level moisture will surge northward in response to the aforementioned northern High Plains lee cyclogenesis. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the northern Great Plains during the day, yielding most-unstable CAPE values ranging from 1000 J/kg to perhaps 3000 J/kg depending on model guidance.

However, run-to-run inconsistency in the space and time evolution of relevant features leads to little confidence in identifying where any overlap of thunderstorms, instability, and effective-layer shear might support severe thunderstorms. However, if model guidance begins to converge on potential scenarios, probabilistic delineation may become warranted in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, July 17

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 5 Tuesday, July 15 predictability too low
Day 6 Wednesday, July 16 predictability too low
Day 7 Thursday, July 17 predictability too low
Day 8 Friday, July 18 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110840 SPC AC 110840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A surface cold front across the southern Great Plains early in the period will quickly redevelop northward into the northern Plains in response to strong lee cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains. This cyclogenesis will occur in response to a positive-tilt short-wave trough moving through the broadly zonal mid-level flow across the northern US.

This front will move back south during the period as a seasonably strong high pressure builds southward into the central US in the wake of the aforementioned short-wave trough. Thunderstorms are likely to develop in the vicinity of the front/aggregate outflow boundary each afternoon as it moves south. However, given the lack of significant flow amplification as the mid-level wave crosses the northern US, it is likely that thunderstorms will remain displaced south of the requisite effective-layer shear needed to promote an organized severe threat identifiable at this time range.

One exception to the idea that storms will be displaced from the better shear may take place on Monday/Day-4 across portions of North Dakota. Here, low-level moisture will surge northward in response to the aforementioned northern High Plains lee cyclogenesis. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the northern Great Plains during the day, yielding most-unstable CAPE values ranging from 1000 J/kg to perhaps 3000 J/kg depending on model guidance.

However, run-to-run inconsistency in the space and time evolution of relevant features leads to little confidence in identifying where any overlap of thunderstorms, instability, and effective-layer shear might support severe thunderstorms. However, if model guidance begins to converge on potential scenarios, probabilistic delineation may become warranted in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, July 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4 Monday, July 14 predictability too low
Day 5 Tuesday, July 15 predictability too low
Day 6 Wednesday, July 16 predictability too low
Day 7 Thursday, July 17 predictability too low
Day 8 Friday, July 18 predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110840 SPC AC 110840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A surface cold front across the southern Great Plains early in the period will quickly redevelop northward into the northern Plains in response to strong lee cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains. This cyclogenesis will occur in response to a positive-tilt short-wave trough moving through the broadly zonal mid-level flow across the northern US.

This front will move back south during the period as a seasonably strong high pressure builds southward into the central US in the wake of the aforementioned short-wave trough. Thunderstorms are likely to develop in the vicinity of the front/aggregate outflow boundary each afternoon as it moves south. However, given the lack of significant flow amplification as the mid-level wave crosses the northern US, it is likely that thunderstorms will remain displaced south of the requisite effective-layer shear needed to promote an organized severe threat identifiable at this time range.

One exception to the idea that storms will be displaced from the better shear may take place on Monday/Day-4 across portions of North Dakota. Here, low-level moisture will surge northward in response to the aforementioned northern High Plains lee cyclogenesis. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the northern Great Plains during the day, yielding most-unstable CAPE values ranging from 1000 J/kg to perhaps 3000 J/kg depending on model guidance.

However, run-to-run inconsistency in the space and time evolution of relevant features leads to little confidence in identifying where any overlap of thunderstorms, instability, and effective-layer shear might support severe thunderstorms. However, if model guidance begins to converge on potential scenarios, probabilistic delineation may become warranted in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 11
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Saturday, July 12
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 13
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, July 14
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 15
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 16
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 17
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 18
ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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