Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, July 17
Wednesday, July 18
Thursday, July 19
Friday, July 20
Saturday, July 21
Sunday, July 22
Monday, July 23
Tuesday, July 24

Outlook for Tuesday, July 17

Outlook Summary

A few strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and wind remain possible across parts of the northern High Plains into the Central Plains through evening. Isolated strong storms may persist across Maryland and northern Virginia through early evening with strong wind gusts.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180056

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

A few strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and wind remain possible across parts of the northern High Plains into the Central Plains through evening. Isolated strong storms may persist across Maryland and northern Virginia through early evening with strong wind gusts.

Central/Northern Plains

Scattered storms persist this evening across the northern and central high Plains aided by moist southeasterly surface winds and a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across WY. The most intense areas of ongoing storms were across the Black Hills as of 01Z, with a few strong storms over northeastern CO as well. 00Z soundings across the region show marginal instability profiles, but lack of any appreciable capping inversion suggests storms will persist for several more hours as they propagate slowly southeastward, supported by a increasing low-level jet. Additional sporadic development is possible this evening across KS and OK where the most unstable air mass resides. Scattered cells were already developing over southwest KS in proximity to a hot air mass to the south.

MD…northern VA

A few strong storms persist early this evening along a cold front across parts of MD and northern VA. 00Z soundings continue to show moist, unstable profiles immediately ahead of these storms with generally weak shear. However, a relatively cool air mass from earlier outflow exists across parts of the Delmarva, suggesting storms will diminish.

..Jewell.. 07/18/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 18

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Central Plains on Wednesday, with a primary threat of large hail and locally damaging wind.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171728

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NE…NORTHERN KS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Central Plains on Wednesday, with a primary threat of large hail and locally damaging wind.

Synopsis

A midlevel trough is expected to amplify on Wednesday as it moves southeastward from the northern High Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. A surface low is expected to track eastward across the southern Canadian Prairies, while a secondary surface low may form across portions of the southern Plains. Between the two lows, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous across the central Plains, with a surface trough and perhaps one or more outflow boundaries expected to be in place by the afternoon.

Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley

A considerable amount of uncertainty remains regarding the severe thunderstorm potential across the central Plains/mid Missouri Valley region on Wednesday, though a conditionally favorable environment will likely develop across portions of this region during the afternoon. For areas that are not disrupted by overnight convection, light low-level southeasterly flow will maintain relatively moist surface conditions, with sufficient heating to support moderate instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) despite seasonably cool conditions. Effective shear of 35-45 kt will favor some organized storm structures, with a few supercells possible capable of large hail and locally damaging wind. One or more clusters may eventually evolve as well, posing a somewhat greater damaging wind risk potentially lasting well into the evening. Confidence in any one particular scenario is low, but the consensus of HREF guidance and larger-scale environment forecasts favor a local maximum in the severe threat across central NE into northern KS, where a Slight Risk has been introduced.

Ozarks Vicinity

One or more thunderstorm clusters may be ongoing Wednesday morning from southeast KS into the Ozarks. To the south and west of any outflow boundaries related to such activity, a very moist and strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) environment is expected to develop during the afternoon, with minimal convective inhibition expected during peak heating. While deep-layer flow will not be particularly strong, weak southeasterly low-level flow veering to modest northwest flow aloft will support effective shear of 25-35 kt, sufficient for some organized storm structures. At least isolated instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with the strongest storms.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight

..Dean/Peters.. 07/17/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 19

Outlook Summary

A marginal severe threat will be possible on Thursday across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170710

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS

### SUMMARY

A marginal severe threat will be possible on Thursday across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley.

Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley

A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday as a cold front advances southeastward across the northern Plains. The models are forecasting a moist airmass to be in place across the Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valley where surface dewpoints should be upper 60s to lower 70s F. As a result, moderate instability appears likely to develop across much of the moist sector by Thursday afternoon. Model forecasts are not in agreement on where convective development will be most probable. The NAM is forecasting late afternoon storms in western Minnesota while the GFS and ECMWF show storms in southern Minnesota and east-central Iowa. This outlook favors the GFS and ECMWF solutions which suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible in western portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley. A marginal risk area has been added from near the Mississippi River in northeast Iowa westward into southeastern South Dakota and northeast Nebraska where storm coverage may be isolated but strong instability is forecast. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the cells that develop in areas with the strongest instability.

..Broyles.. 07/17/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 20

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170735 SPC AC 170735

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5

The medium-range models are in much better agreement early in the Day 4 to 8 period. The ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMET move an upper-level trough across the mid Mississippi Valley on Friday and show the moist sector in the base of the trough. This would imply that moderate instability will be in place by Friday afternoon across parts of Missouri and Arkansas extending eastward into western parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An isolated severe threat would be possible Friday afternoon along the northern edge of the strongest instability from near St. Louis, MO eastward to the Cincinnati, OH area. For Saturday, the models move the upper-level trough slowly eastward and again show the moist sector in the base of the system. The models would suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Saturday afternoon. Any severe threat would be probably remain marginal due to the relatively weak deep-layer shear forecast.

Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8

The models continue to move the upper-level trough slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday. Thunderstorms would be possible each day from near the upper-level trough eastward across the moist sector. For Sunday, the greatest potential for a marginal severe threat would be in the central Appalachians. The threat would shift eastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday and appears likely to diminish by Tuesday as the upper-level trough becomes less amplified. Also, a marginal severe threat can not be ruled out in parts of the central and northern Plains from Sunday to Tuesday but model spread is large and forecast uncertainty is high.

..Broyles.. 07/17/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, July 21

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170735 SPC AC 170735

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5

The medium-range models are in much better agreement early in the Day 4 to 8 period. The ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMET move an upper-level trough across the mid Mississippi Valley on Friday and show the moist sector in the base of the trough. This would imply that moderate instability will be in place by Friday afternoon across parts of Missouri and Arkansas extending eastward into western parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An isolated severe threat would be possible Friday afternoon along the northern edge of the strongest instability from near St. Louis, MO eastward to the Cincinnati, OH area. For Saturday, the models move the upper-level trough slowly eastward and again show the moist sector in the base of the system. The models would suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Saturday afternoon. Any severe threat would be probably remain marginal due to the relatively weak deep-layer shear forecast.

Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8

The models continue to move the upper-level trough slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday. Thunderstorms would be possible each day from near the upper-level trough eastward across the moist sector. For Sunday, the greatest potential for a marginal severe threat would be in the central Appalachians. The threat would shift eastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday and appears likely to diminish by Tuesday as the upper-level trough becomes less amplified. Also, a marginal severe threat can not be ruled out in parts of the central and northern Plains from Sunday to Tuesday but model spread is large and forecast uncertainty is high.

..Broyles.. 07/17/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, July 22

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170735 SPC AC 170735

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5

The medium-range models are in much better agreement early in the Day 4 to 8 period. The ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMET move an upper-level trough across the mid Mississippi Valley on Friday and show the moist sector in the base of the trough. This would imply that moderate instability will be in place by Friday afternoon across parts of Missouri and Arkansas extending eastward into western parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An isolated severe threat would be possible Friday afternoon along the northern edge of the strongest instability from near St. Louis, MO eastward to the Cincinnati, OH area. For Saturday, the models move the upper-level trough slowly eastward and again show the moist sector in the base of the system. The models would suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Saturday afternoon. Any severe threat would be probably remain marginal due to the relatively weak deep-layer shear forecast.

Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8

The models continue to move the upper-level trough slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday. Thunderstorms would be possible each day from near the upper-level trough eastward across the moist sector. For Sunday, the greatest potential for a marginal severe threat would be in the central Appalachians. The threat would shift eastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday and appears likely to diminish by Tuesday as the upper-level trough becomes less amplified. Also, a marginal severe threat can not be ruled out in parts of the central and northern Plains from Sunday to Tuesday but model spread is large and forecast uncertainty is high.

..Broyles.. 07/17/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, July 23

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170735 SPC AC 170735

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5

The medium-range models are in much better agreement early in the Day 4 to 8 period. The ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMET move an upper-level trough across the mid Mississippi Valley on Friday and show the moist sector in the base of the trough. This would imply that moderate instability will be in place by Friday afternoon across parts of Missouri and Arkansas extending eastward into western parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An isolated severe threat would be possible Friday afternoon along the northern edge of the strongest instability from near St. Louis, MO eastward to the Cincinnati, OH area. For Saturday, the models move the upper-level trough slowly eastward and again show the moist sector in the base of the system. The models would suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Saturday afternoon. Any severe threat would be probably remain marginal due to the relatively weak deep-layer shear forecast.

Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8

The models continue to move the upper-level trough slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday. Thunderstorms would be possible each day from near the upper-level trough eastward across the moist sector. For Sunday, the greatest potential for a marginal severe threat would be in the central Appalachians. The threat would shift eastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday and appears likely to diminish by Tuesday as the upper-level trough becomes less amplified. Also, a marginal severe threat can not be ruled out in parts of the central and northern Plains from Sunday to Tuesday but model spread is large and forecast uncertainty is high.

..Broyles.. 07/17/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, July 24

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170735 SPC AC 170735

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5

The medium-range models are in much better agreement early in the Day 4 to 8 period. The ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMET move an upper-level trough across the mid Mississippi Valley on Friday and show the moist sector in the base of the trough. This would imply that moderate instability will be in place by Friday afternoon across parts of Missouri and Arkansas extending eastward into western parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An isolated severe threat would be possible Friday afternoon along the northern edge of the strongest instability from near St. Louis, MO eastward to the Cincinnati, OH area. For Saturday, the models move the upper-level trough slowly eastward and again show the moist sector in the base of the system. The models would suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Saturday afternoon. Any severe threat would be probably remain marginal due to the relatively weak deep-layer shear forecast.

Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8

The models continue to move the upper-level trough slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday. Thunderstorms would be possible each day from near the upper-level trough eastward across the moist sector. For Sunday, the greatest potential for a marginal severe threat would be in the central Appalachians. The threat would shift eastward into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday and appears likely to diminish by Tuesday as the upper-level trough becomes less amplified. Also, a marginal severe threat can not be ruled out in parts of the central and northern Plains from Sunday to Tuesday but model spread is large and forecast uncertainty is high.

..Broyles.. 07/17/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 17
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Wednesday, July 18
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 19
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, July 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, July 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, July 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, July 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, July 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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