Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, January 23
Friday, January 24
Saturday, January 25
Sunday, January 26
Monday, January 27
Tuesday, January 28
Wednesday, January 29
Thursday, January 30

Outlook for Thursday, January 23

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231948

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight.

Discussion

No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.

..Smith.. 01/23/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/

Gulf Coast

A longwave trough will continue to become increasingly prominent with a slow-eastward shift over the east-central CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs phasing and a deepening low over the Lower Missouri Valley. These trends and related warm/moist advection will influence gradual air mass modification over the western/northern Gulf of Mexico while also contributing to scattered rainfall inland from the ArkLaMiss/southeast Louisiana to Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

Weaker/secondary cyclogenesis will occur along the middle Gulf Coast through tonight, with a warm front approaching the coasts of southeast Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. However, with scattered rainfall persisting inland, it still seems likely that continental trajectories will be slow to abate with stronger/surface-rooted convection likely to remain over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Accordingly, severe potential over inland areas of the region is still expected to remain very low.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Friday, January 24

Outlook Summary

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across the southern and middle Atlantic coastal states Friday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231721

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across the southern and middle Atlantic coastal states Friday.

Synopsis

A mid-level low will move from the Ozarks to the southern Great Lakes during the day-2 period. An attendant frontal zone associated with an eastward-moving mid-level low southeast of Bermuda, has progressed into the central Caribbean. In wake of the front, a relatively cool airmass south/east of the Southeast U.S. will only have a short duration to partially modify before the approaching mid-level trough from the west. As a result, instability will likely be hindered in what would otherwise promote a more favorable setup for stronger thunderstorm activity near the NC coast late Friday night/early Saturday morning.

Nonetheless, strengthening forcing for ascent and at least scant to weak elevated instability may result in a low-topped convective band to develop over western NC and move into central VA and eastern NC during the overnight. A plume of upper 50s F dewpoints is forecast to overspread the NC coastal plain with cold 500 mb temperatures (-18 C). Uncertainty is quite high regarding the magnitude of destabilization given the antecedent airmass modification needed.

Will re-evaluate both observational and model run-to-run trends for the possibility for including low-severe probabilities at later outlook updates.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None

..Smith.. 01/23/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Saturday, January 25

Outlook Summary

Elevated thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the southern Plains late Saturday/Sunday morning.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230820

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Elevated thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the southern Plains late Saturday/Sunday morning.

Discussion

A progressive pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S. during the upcoming weekend, as a series of shorter-wavelength troughs cross the western and central U.S., while a large upper low moves gradually into the Northeast.

At the surface, a cool front will shift southward across south Florida and the Keys, while a low moves onshore over the Northwest in conjunction with an eastern Pacific short-wave trough. Over the south-central U.S., weak low pressure – and low-level warm advection – will spread across the region through the period, associated with another short-wave feature aloft.

Aside from an early lightning flash or two near south Florida and the Keys, and perhaps a couple of others over portions of the Northwest U.S. Coast, the only area more likely to see at least 10% lightning coverage appears to be over parts of the southern Plains. Here, weak elevated theta-e advection and the aforementioned increase in QG forcing may permit nocturnal, elevated convection to develop over parts of Texas and possibly into Oklahoma. Severe weather is not expected.

..Goss.. 01/23/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Sunday, January 26

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 231002 SPC AC 231002

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement early in the medium-range period, as several short-wave perturbations aloft progress eastward across the U.S. in relatively low-amplitude flow. However, initially small differences between the models become greater with time – beginning with a stronger feature progged to move into the southern Plains day 5 (Monday 1-27). Eventually, a large/complex area of cyclonic flow should evolve – gradually expanding to encompass a large portion of the central and eastern U.S. through the end of the period.

As this trough evolves/expands, opportunities for increased convective potential are apparent over portions of the southeastern quarter of the country. However, the combination of model differences, and some likelihood that a stable boundary layer persists inland through the period, precludes any forecast for possible stronger convective potential through the period.

..Goss.. 01/23/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, January 27

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 231002 SPC AC 231002

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement early in the medium-range period, as several short-wave perturbations aloft progress eastward across the U.S. in relatively low-amplitude flow. However, initially small differences between the models become greater with time – beginning with a stronger feature progged to move into the southern Plains day 5 (Monday 1-27). Eventually, a large/complex area of cyclonic flow should evolve – gradually expanding to encompass a large portion of the central and eastern U.S. through the end of the period.

As this trough evolves/expands, opportunities for increased convective potential are apparent over portions of the southeastern quarter of the country. However, the combination of model differences, and some likelihood that a stable boundary layer persists inland through the period, precludes any forecast for possible stronger convective potential through the period.

..Goss.. 01/23/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, January 28

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 231002 SPC AC 231002

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement early in the medium-range period, as several short-wave perturbations aloft progress eastward across the U.S. in relatively low-amplitude flow. However, initially small differences between the models become greater with time – beginning with a stronger feature progged to move into the southern Plains day 5 (Monday 1-27). Eventually, a large/complex area of cyclonic flow should evolve – gradually expanding to encompass a large portion of the central and eastern U.S. through the end of the period.

As this trough evolves/expands, opportunities for increased convective potential are apparent over portions of the southeastern quarter of the country. However, the combination of model differences, and some likelihood that a stable boundary layer persists inland through the period, precludes any forecast for possible stronger convective potential through the period.

..Goss.. 01/23/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, January 29

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 231002 SPC AC 231002

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement early in the medium-range period, as several short-wave perturbations aloft progress eastward across the U.S. in relatively low-amplitude flow. However, initially small differences between the models become greater with time – beginning with a stronger feature progged to move into the southern Plains day 5 (Monday 1-27). Eventually, a large/complex area of cyclonic flow should evolve – gradually expanding to encompass a large portion of the central and eastern U.S. through the end of the period.

As this trough evolves/expands, opportunities for increased convective potential are apparent over portions of the southeastern quarter of the country. However, the combination of model differences, and some likelihood that a stable boundary layer persists inland through the period, precludes any forecast for possible stronger convective potential through the period.

..Goss.. 01/23/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, January 30

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 231002 SPC AC 231002

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement early in the medium-range period, as several short-wave perturbations aloft progress eastward across the U.S. in relatively low-amplitude flow. However, initially small differences between the models become greater with time – beginning with a stronger feature progged to move into the southern Plains day 5 (Monday 1-27). Eventually, a large/complex area of cyclonic flow should evolve – gradually expanding to encompass a large portion of the central and eastern U.S. through the end of the period.

As this trough evolves/expands, opportunities for increased convective potential are apparent over portions of the southeastern quarter of the country. However, the combination of model differences, and some likelihood that a stable boundary layer persists inland through the period, precludes any forecast for possible stronger convective potential through the period.

..Goss.. 01/23/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Thursday, January 23
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Friday, January 24
ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, January 25
ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, January 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, January 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, January 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, January 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, January 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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