Severe Weather Outlook
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Thursday, January 23
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231948
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight.
Discussion
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.
..Smith.. 01/23/2020
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020/
Gulf Coast
A longwave trough will continue to become increasingly prominent with a slow-eastward shift over the east-central CONUS, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs phasing and a deepening low over the Lower Missouri Valley. These trends and related warm/moist advection will influence gradual air mass modification over the western/northern Gulf of Mexico while also contributing to scattered rainfall inland from the ArkLaMiss/southeast Louisiana to Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
Weaker/secondary cyclogenesis will occur along the middle Gulf Coast through tonight, with a warm front approaching the coasts of southeast Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. However, with scattered rainfall persisting inland, it still seems likely that continental trajectories will be slow to abate with stronger/surface-rooted convection likely to remain over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Accordingly, severe potential over inland areas of the region is still expected to remain very low.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Friday, January 24
Outlook Summary
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across the southern and middle Atlantic coastal states Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 231721
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across the southern and middle Atlantic coastal states Friday.
Synopsis
A mid-level low will move from the Ozarks to the southern Great Lakes during the day-2 period. An attendant frontal zone associated with an eastward-moving mid-level low southeast of Bermuda, has progressed into the central Caribbean. In wake of the front, a relatively cool airmass south/east of the Southeast U.S. will only have a short duration to partially modify before the approaching mid-level trough from the west. As a result, instability will likely be hindered in what would otherwise promote a more favorable setup for stronger thunderstorm activity near the NC coast late Friday night/early Saturday morning.
Nonetheless, strengthening forcing for ascent and at least scant to weak elevated instability may result in a low-topped convective band to develop over western NC and move into central VA and eastern NC during the overnight. A plume of upper 50s F dewpoints is forecast to overspread the NC coastal plain with cold 500 mb temperatures (-18 C). Uncertainty is quite high regarding the magnitude of destabilization given the antecedent airmass modification needed.
Will re-evaluate both observational and model run-to-run trends for the possibility for including low-severe probabilities at later outlook updates.
MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD
Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None
..Smith.. 01/23/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
Outlook for Saturday, January 25
Outlook Summary
Elevated thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the southern Plains late Saturday/Sunday morning.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 230820
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Elevated thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the southern Plains late Saturday/Sunday morning.
Discussion
A progressive pattern aloft will prevail across the U.S. during the upcoming weekend, as a series of shorter-wavelength troughs cross the western and central U.S., while a large upper low moves gradually into the Northeast.
At the surface, a cool front will shift southward across south Florida and the Keys, while a low moves onshore over the Northwest in conjunction with an eastern Pacific short-wave trough. Over the south-central U.S., weak low pressure – and low-level warm advection – will spread across the region through the period, associated with another short-wave feature aloft.
Aside from an early lightning flash or two near south Florida and the Keys, and perhaps a couple of others over portions of the Northwest U.S. Coast, the only area more likely to see at least 10% lightning coverage appears to be over parts of the southern Plains. Here, weak elevated theta-e advection and the aforementioned increase in QG forcing may permit nocturnal, elevated convection to develop over parts of Texas and possibly into Oklahoma. Severe weather is not expected.
..Goss.. 01/23/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
Outlook for Sunday, January 26
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 231002 SPC AC 231002
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement early in the medium-range period, as several short-wave perturbations aloft progress eastward across the U.S. in relatively low-amplitude flow. However, initially small differences between the models become greater with time – beginning with a stronger feature progged to move into the southern Plains day 5 (Monday 1-27). Eventually, a large/complex area of cyclonic flow should evolve – gradually expanding to encompass a large portion of the central and eastern U.S. through the end of the period.
As this trough evolves/expands, opportunities for increased convective potential are apparent over portions of the southeastern quarter of the country. However, the combination of model differences, and some likelihood that a stable boundary layer persists inland through the period, precludes any forecast for possible stronger convective potential through the period.
..Goss.. 01/23/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, January 27
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 231002 SPC AC 231002
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement early in the medium-range period, as several short-wave perturbations aloft progress eastward across the U.S. in relatively low-amplitude flow. However, initially small differences between the models become greater with time – beginning with a stronger feature progged to move into the southern Plains day 5 (Monday 1-27). Eventually, a large/complex area of cyclonic flow should evolve – gradually expanding to encompass a large portion of the central and eastern U.S. through the end of the period.
As this trough evolves/expands, opportunities for increased convective potential are apparent over portions of the southeastern quarter of the country. However, the combination of model differences, and some likelihood that a stable boundary layer persists inland through the period, precludes any forecast for possible stronger convective potential through the period.
..Goss.. 01/23/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, January 28
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 231002 SPC AC 231002
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement early in the medium-range period, as several short-wave perturbations aloft progress eastward across the U.S. in relatively low-amplitude flow. However, initially small differences between the models become greater with time – beginning with a stronger feature progged to move into the southern Plains day 5 (Monday 1-27). Eventually, a large/complex area of cyclonic flow should evolve – gradually expanding to encompass a large portion of the central and eastern U.S. through the end of the period.
As this trough evolves/expands, opportunities for increased convective potential are apparent over portions of the southeastern quarter of the country. However, the combination of model differences, and some likelihood that a stable boundary layer persists inland through the period, precludes any forecast for possible stronger convective potential through the period.
..Goss.. 01/23/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, January 29
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 231002 SPC AC 231002
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement early in the medium-range period, as several short-wave perturbations aloft progress eastward across the U.S. in relatively low-amplitude flow. However, initially small differences between the models become greater with time – beginning with a stronger feature progged to move into the southern Plains day 5 (Monday 1-27). Eventually, a large/complex area of cyclonic flow should evolve – gradually expanding to encompass a large portion of the central and eastern U.S. through the end of the period.
As this trough evolves/expands, opportunities for increased convective potential are apparent over portions of the southeastern quarter of the country. However, the combination of model differences, and some likelihood that a stable boundary layer persists inland through the period, precludes any forecast for possible stronger convective potential through the period.
..Goss.. 01/23/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, January 30
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 231002 SPC AC 231002
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
DISCUSSION
The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement early in the medium-range period, as several short-wave perturbations aloft progress eastward across the U.S. in relatively low-amplitude flow. However, initially small differences between the models become greater with time – beginning with a stronger feature progged to move into the southern Plains day 5 (Monday 1-27). Eventually, a large/complex area of cyclonic flow should evolve – gradually expanding to encompass a large portion of the central and eastern U.S. through the end of the period.
As this trough evolves/expands, opportunities for increased convective potential are apparent over portions of the southeastern quarter of the country. However, the combination of model differences, and some likelihood that a stable boundary layer persists inland through the period, precludes any forecast for possible stronger convective potential through the period.
..Goss.. 01/23/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Thursday, January 23
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, January 24
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, January 25
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, January 26
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Monday, January 27
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Tuesday, January 28
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Wednesday, January 29
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Thursday, January 30
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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