Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, July 11
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 120055
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains.
Midwest
Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight.
Southern High Plains
Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN.
Central High Plains
Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat.
..Grams.. 07/12/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Saturday, July 12
Outlook Summary
Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, and eastern Michigan on Saturday. Large hail and damaging gusts are possible over much of southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico during the afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111729
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, and eastern Michigan on Saturday. Large hail and damaging gusts are possible over much of southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico during the afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the upper MS Valley, while a separate weaker system drifts east across the central to southern Plains. Meanwhile, weak ridging will remain over the Southeast, with a stronger upper high over southern CA.
At the surface, low pressure will move across Lower MI, with drying across the upper MS Valley as winds veer. A diffuse boundary will extend southwestward into parts of MO, KS, and OK, providing a focus for storms.
Great Lakes Region
Strong heating will occur ahead of a cold front, with upper 60s F dewpoints over IN, OH, and much of Lower MI. Little cooling aloft is forecast with the glancing upper wave, but MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg. Convergence within the surface trough will lead to scattered storms along the wind shift, with a few severe gusts and marginal hail possible. Low-level shear will be strongest over northern Lower MI, and an isolated supercell cannot be ruled out. Some uncertainty exist regarding overall storm coverage, as midlevel subsidence moves in late in the day.
OH/Mid MS Valleys to the southern Plains
Ongoing storms with outflow may exist from parts of the South Plains into OK Saturday morning. Any associated boundaries may provide a focus for redevelopment during the afternoon, as 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE develops. Aside from that, moist easterly low-level flow through a deep layer will be favorable for thunderstorms across almost all of Southwest TX, including the Big Bend area. While shear will be weak, lightly veering winds with height along with steep lapse rates and strong instability should lead to a few robust, slow-moving storms with localized damaging hail and downburst potential.
..Jewell.. 07/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, July 13
Outlook Summary
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 111926
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS…AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK
### SUMMARY
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal.
VA northward into NY
Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA.
..Jewell.. 07/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, July 14
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, July 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, July 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110840 SPC AC 110840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface cold front across the southern Great Plains early in the period will quickly redevelop northward into the northern Plains in response to strong lee cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains. This cyclogenesis will occur in response to a positive-tilt short-wave trough moving through the broadly zonal mid-level flow across the northern US.
This front will move back south during the period as a seasonably strong high pressure builds southward into the central US in the wake of the aforementioned short-wave trough. Thunderstorms are likely to develop in the vicinity of the front/aggregate outflow boundary each afternoon as it moves south. However, given the lack of significant flow amplification as the mid-level wave crosses the northern US, it is likely that thunderstorms will remain displaced south of the requisite effective-layer shear needed to promote an organized severe threat identifiable at this time range.
One exception to the idea that storms will be displaced from the better shear may take place on Monday/Day-4 across portions of North Dakota. Here, low-level moisture will surge northward in response to the aforementioned northern High Plains lee cyclogenesis. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the northern Great Plains during the day, yielding most-unstable CAPE values ranging from 1000 J/kg to perhaps 3000 J/kg depending on model guidance.
However, run-to-run inconsistency in the space and time evolution of relevant features leads to little confidence in identifying where any overlap of thunderstorms, instability, and effective-layer shear might support severe thunderstorms. However, if model guidance begins to converge on potential scenarios, probabilistic delineation may become warranted in subsequent forecasts.
..Marsh.. 07/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, July 15
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, July 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, July 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110840 SPC AC 110840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface cold front across the southern Great Plains early in the period will quickly redevelop northward into the northern Plains in response to strong lee cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains. This cyclogenesis will occur in response to a positive-tilt short-wave trough moving through the broadly zonal mid-level flow across the northern US.
This front will move back south during the period as a seasonably strong high pressure builds southward into the central US in the wake of the aforementioned short-wave trough. Thunderstorms are likely to develop in the vicinity of the front/aggregate outflow boundary each afternoon as it moves south. However, given the lack of significant flow amplification as the mid-level wave crosses the northern US, it is likely that thunderstorms will remain displaced south of the requisite effective-layer shear needed to promote an organized severe threat identifiable at this time range.
One exception to the idea that storms will be displaced from the better shear may take place on Monday/Day-4 across portions of North Dakota. Here, low-level moisture will surge northward in response to the aforementioned northern High Plains lee cyclogenesis. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the northern Great Plains during the day, yielding most-unstable CAPE values ranging from 1000 J/kg to perhaps 3000 J/kg depending on model guidance.
However, run-to-run inconsistency in the space and time evolution of relevant features leads to little confidence in identifying where any overlap of thunderstorms, instability, and effective-layer shear might support severe thunderstorms. However, if model guidance begins to converge on potential scenarios, probabilistic delineation may become warranted in subsequent forecasts.
..Marsh.. 07/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, July 16
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, July 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, July 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110840 SPC AC 110840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface cold front across the southern Great Plains early in the period will quickly redevelop northward into the northern Plains in response to strong lee cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains. This cyclogenesis will occur in response to a positive-tilt short-wave trough moving through the broadly zonal mid-level flow across the northern US.
This front will move back south during the period as a seasonably strong high pressure builds southward into the central US in the wake of the aforementioned short-wave trough. Thunderstorms are likely to develop in the vicinity of the front/aggregate outflow boundary each afternoon as it moves south. However, given the lack of significant flow amplification as the mid-level wave crosses the northern US, it is likely that thunderstorms will remain displaced south of the requisite effective-layer shear needed to promote an organized severe threat identifiable at this time range.
One exception to the idea that storms will be displaced from the better shear may take place on Monday/Day-4 across portions of North Dakota. Here, low-level moisture will surge northward in response to the aforementioned northern High Plains lee cyclogenesis. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the northern Great Plains during the day, yielding most-unstable CAPE values ranging from 1000 J/kg to perhaps 3000 J/kg depending on model guidance.
However, run-to-run inconsistency in the space and time evolution of relevant features leads to little confidence in identifying where any overlap of thunderstorms, instability, and effective-layer shear might support severe thunderstorms. However, if model guidance begins to converge on potential scenarios, probabilistic delineation may become warranted in subsequent forecasts.
..Marsh.. 07/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, July 17
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, July 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, July 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110840 SPC AC 110840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface cold front across the southern Great Plains early in the period will quickly redevelop northward into the northern Plains in response to strong lee cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains. This cyclogenesis will occur in response to a positive-tilt short-wave trough moving through the broadly zonal mid-level flow across the northern US.
This front will move back south during the period as a seasonably strong high pressure builds southward into the central US in the wake of the aforementioned short-wave trough. Thunderstorms are likely to develop in the vicinity of the front/aggregate outflow boundary each afternoon as it moves south. However, given the lack of significant flow amplification as the mid-level wave crosses the northern US, it is likely that thunderstorms will remain displaced south of the requisite effective-layer shear needed to promote an organized severe threat identifiable at this time range.
One exception to the idea that storms will be displaced from the better shear may take place on Monday/Day-4 across portions of North Dakota. Here, low-level moisture will surge northward in response to the aforementioned northern High Plains lee cyclogenesis. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the northern Great Plains during the day, yielding most-unstable CAPE values ranging from 1000 J/kg to perhaps 3000 J/kg depending on model guidance.
However, run-to-run inconsistency in the space and time evolution of relevant features leads to little confidence in identifying where any overlap of thunderstorms, instability, and effective-layer shear might support severe thunderstorms. However, if model guidance begins to converge on potential scenarios, probabilistic delineation may become warranted in subsequent forecasts.
..Marsh.. 07/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, July 18
Outlook Images
any severe predictability too low
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
- Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
- Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Days Covered in this Outlook
| Day 4 | Monday, July 14 | predictability too low |
| Day 5 | Tuesday, July 15 | predictability too low |
| Day 6 | Wednesday, July 16 | predictability too low |
| Day 7 | Thursday, July 17 | predictability too low |
| Day 8 | Friday, July 18 | predictability too low |
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110840 SPC AC 110840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Valid 141200Z - 191200Z
DISCUSSION
A surface cold front across the southern Great Plains early in the period will quickly redevelop northward into the northern Plains in response to strong lee cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains. This cyclogenesis will occur in response to a positive-tilt short-wave trough moving through the broadly zonal mid-level flow across the northern US.
This front will move back south during the period as a seasonably strong high pressure builds southward into the central US in the wake of the aforementioned short-wave trough. Thunderstorms are likely to develop in the vicinity of the front/aggregate outflow boundary each afternoon as it moves south. However, given the lack of significant flow amplification as the mid-level wave crosses the northern US, it is likely that thunderstorms will remain displaced south of the requisite effective-layer shear needed to promote an organized severe threat identifiable at this time range.
One exception to the idea that storms will be displaced from the better shear may take place on Monday/Day-4 across portions of North Dakota. Here, low-level moisture will surge northward in response to the aforementioned northern High Plains lee cyclogenesis. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the northern Great Plains during the day, yielding most-unstable CAPE values ranging from 1000 J/kg to perhaps 3000 J/kg depending on model guidance.
However, run-to-run inconsistency in the space and time evolution of relevant features leads to little confidence in identifying where any overlap of thunderstorms, instability, and effective-layer shear might support severe thunderstorms. However, if model guidance begins to converge on potential scenarios, probabilistic delineation may become warranted in subsequent forecasts.
..Marsh.. 07/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, July 11
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, July 12
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, July 13
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, July 14
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Tuesday, July 15
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Wednesday, July 16
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Thursday, July 17
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
- Friday, July 18
- ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
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