Severe Weather Outlook
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, August 7
Outlook Summary
A cluster of thunderstorms may evolve across the Upper Midwest this evening, accompanied by a risk for severe wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071934
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2020
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
### SUMMARY
A cluster of thunderstorms may evolve across the Upper Midwest this evening, accompanied by a risk for severe wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two.
Discussion
Only two minor changes were made this outlook update. 1) Reduced hail/wind probabilities from 15 to 5 percent across parts of eastern ND and northwest MN. The MCV/vorticity center is forecast to track to the southeast of this area with lower storm coverage and potential for severe located to the north and northwest of the mid-level vort. 2) Added a small 5 percent hail probability in parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
..Smith.. 08/07/2020
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2020/
Synopsis
Troughing within a weak belt of westerlies lingers west through south-southwest of the Appalachians. However, the models indicate that the primary embedded perturbation will shift east-northeast of the Ohio Valley through the northern and mid Atlantic coast by late tonight, as subtropical ridging becomes a bit more prominent across much of the United States.
A belt of stronger mid-latitude westerlies, now nosing inland near the western Canadian/U.S. border, is forecast to tend to shift north of the international border through this period, and undergo some amplification, with broad ridging building across the northeastern Pacific into the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, a vigorous short wave impulse on the leading edge of this regime is forecast to migrate east-northeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies through the Canadian Prairies.
In response to these developments, a broad plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air appears likely to continue advecting eastward across much of the Great Plains, while also nosing northeastward into portions of the Upper Midwest. Some southward suppression of this air mass is possible across eastern Montana into the Dakotas by late tonight, with the surface cold front advancing more rapidly southward through northwestern Minnesota and much of the Dakotas by 12Z Saturday.
Northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest
Seasonably moist boundary layer conditions are returning to the region, due to both moisture advection and evapotranspiration, beneath the warming and capping elevated mixed-layer air. It appears that this will contribute to large mixed-layer CAPE (2000-3000+ J/kg) with daytime heating, ahead of the cold front, across much of the northern Great Plains.
However, to the southeast of the short wave migrating into the Canadian Prairies, and in the wake of a much more subtle preceding perturbation (now progressing into the Red River Valley), mid-level height rises may contribute to suppression of deep convective development across much of the Dakotas. While the eastward advancing surface cold front could provide a focus for at least attempts at sustained thunderstorm development across parts of the western into central Dakotas late this afternoon and early evening, it is becoming increasingly unclear that storms will be able to develop. Even if they do, with stronger mid-level cooling and wind fields lagging to the northwest of the front, severe weather potential may remain limited.
Lift associated with the weaker lead perturbation seems likely to provide the primary focus for sustained thunderstorm development later today through tonight. This may initiate near the edge of the stronger capping elevated mixed-layer air, perhaps in the immediate wake of the convectively generated vorticity center currently over southeastern North Dakota, which is forecast to turn eastward across northern Minnesota today through tonight.
Near and to the southwest of the mid-level cyclonic circulation, a developing zone of stronger differential surface heating may provide the low-level focus for the strongest convective development. This probably will include one or two supercells initially, then perhaps an organizing upscale growing convective system by this evening. An associated risk for severe hail, and perhaps a tornado or two, probably will transition to primarily a severe wind threat, which could spread into northwestern Wisconsin late tonight before diminishing.
Central Appalachians into northern Mid Atlantic coast
Although southwesterly deep-layer mean flow remains modest to weak at around 20 kt or less, some enhancement at mid-levels along and to the lee of the Appalachians could perhaps enhance convective development this afternoon.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 8
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe storms are expected across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska Saturday evening into the overnight hours. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the main hazards with this activity.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 071711
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2020
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe storms are expected across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska Saturday evening into the overnight hours. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the main hazards with this activity.
North-central Great Plains
The southern fringe of modest mid-level westerly flow will overspread parts of the north-central Great Plains to the north of a mid-level anticyclone centered over the south-central U.S. Embedded within this flow to the south of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow over MT, an impulse will move across the north-central High Plains during the period. In the low levels, a front will become draped across parts of SD/NE into WY and will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development late in the day. Southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of rich moisture across parts of KS/NE with 60s-70s deg F dewpoints. Model guidance indicates isolated thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon over WY and perhaps near the Black Hills/Badlands before additional storms develop during the evening. A reservoir of strong instability (MLCAPE ranging from 1500 J/kg near the WY/NE border to 4000-5000 J/kg in central NE) coupled with sufficient shear for storm organization, will favor severe thunderstorms with the more mature/intense updrafts. A thunderstorm cluster will likely evolve during the evening and move east across NE and maintain a lingering wind risk into the overnight near the terminus of a central Great Plains southerly LLJ.
..Smith.. 08/07/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Sunday, August 9
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail and wind damage should be the primary threats.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 070713
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail and wind damage should be the primary threats.
Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the northern High Plains on Sunday as a 60 to 80 kt mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. At the surface, a fast-moving cold front will advance eastward across the northern Plains. The front is expected to reach the eastern Dakotas by afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to strong destabilization. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the front in eastern North Dakota during the mid afternoon and move eastward across northern and central Minnesota during the late afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms could develop southwestward into west-central Minnesota and far northeastern South Dakota. Additional thunderstorms will be possible eastward across the warm sector into the western Great Lakes region.
Ahead of the front, model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE could reach the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range in parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley by late afternoon. Forecast soundings across north-central Minnesota at 21Z show supercell wind profiles with 15 kt surface winds veering to the west-southwest at 50 kt in the mid-levels. This should be favorable for severe storms along the front. Supercells will be capable for producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. The potential for damaging wind gusts could increase as a line of storms organizes along the front during the early to mid evening. At this point, the main uncertainty with the forecast is the timing of the cold front. A slower or faster frontal speed could result in the slight risk being displaced either eastward or westward. The slight risk is currently focused on the area where model forecasts are in best agreement concerning the positions of the front and instability axis near and after peak heating.
..Broyles.. 08/07/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, August 10
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070853 SPC AC 070853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2020
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5
The medium-range models including the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and CANADIAN begin the day 4 to 8 period with a long fetch of west-northwesterly flow across the northwest and north-central United States. A shortwave trough and associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Great Lakes region on Monday where scattered strong thunderstorms may develop. Forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible there Monday afternoon and evening.
On Tuesday, the models keep westerly mid-level flow in place across much of the northern states and show a corridor of moderate instability across the central and northern Plains. Although large-scale ascent may be weak across the north-central states, thunderstorms could develop along the western edge of the stronger instability, in parts of the northern Plains. Forecast deep-layer shear in the northern Plains appears sufficient for an isolated severe threat Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
On Wednesday, both the ECMWF and GFS move a shortwave trough into the mid Mississippi Valley but have a shortwave ridge in the northern Plains. The models maintain a corridor of moderate instability in the central and northern Plains where isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible. Forecast deep-layer shear again appears sufficient for an isolated severe threat there Wednesday afternoon and evening.
On Thursday and Friday, model forecasts diverge sharply. The commonality among solutions is a corridor of low-level moisture and instability from the mid Missouri Valley into the northern Plains. Some solutions suggest an upper-level ridge will be in place in the north-central U.S. This would keep convective coverage minimal. However, uncertainty late in the period is substantial. Any storms that can develop in the stronger instability could have an isolated severe threat.
..Broyles.. 08/07/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 11
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070853 SPC AC 070853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2020
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5
The medium-range models including the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and CANADIAN begin the day 4 to 8 period with a long fetch of west-northwesterly flow across the northwest and north-central United States. A shortwave trough and associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Great Lakes region on Monday where scattered strong thunderstorms may develop. Forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible there Monday afternoon and evening.
On Tuesday, the models keep westerly mid-level flow in place across much of the northern states and show a corridor of moderate instability across the central and northern Plains. Although large-scale ascent may be weak across the north-central states, thunderstorms could develop along the western edge of the stronger instability, in parts of the northern Plains. Forecast deep-layer shear in the northern Plains appears sufficient for an isolated severe threat Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
On Wednesday, both the ECMWF and GFS move a shortwave trough into the mid Mississippi Valley but have a shortwave ridge in the northern Plains. The models maintain a corridor of moderate instability in the central and northern Plains where isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible. Forecast deep-layer shear again appears sufficient for an isolated severe threat there Wednesday afternoon and evening.
On Thursday and Friday, model forecasts diverge sharply. The commonality among solutions is a corridor of low-level moisture and instability from the mid Missouri Valley into the northern Plains. Some solutions suggest an upper-level ridge will be in place in the north-central U.S. This would keep convective coverage minimal. However, uncertainty late in the period is substantial. Any storms that can develop in the stronger instability could have an isolated severe threat.
..Broyles.. 08/07/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 12
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070853 SPC AC 070853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2020
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5
The medium-range models including the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and CANADIAN begin the day 4 to 8 period with a long fetch of west-northwesterly flow across the northwest and north-central United States. A shortwave trough and associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Great Lakes region on Monday where scattered strong thunderstorms may develop. Forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible there Monday afternoon and evening.
On Tuesday, the models keep westerly mid-level flow in place across much of the northern states and show a corridor of moderate instability across the central and northern Plains. Although large-scale ascent may be weak across the north-central states, thunderstorms could develop along the western edge of the stronger instability, in parts of the northern Plains. Forecast deep-layer shear in the northern Plains appears sufficient for an isolated severe threat Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
On Wednesday, both the ECMWF and GFS move a shortwave trough into the mid Mississippi Valley but have a shortwave ridge in the northern Plains. The models maintain a corridor of moderate instability in the central and northern Plains where isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible. Forecast deep-layer shear again appears sufficient for an isolated severe threat there Wednesday afternoon and evening.
On Thursday and Friday, model forecasts diverge sharply. The commonality among solutions is a corridor of low-level moisture and instability from the mid Missouri Valley into the northern Plains. Some solutions suggest an upper-level ridge will be in place in the north-central U.S. This would keep convective coverage minimal. However, uncertainty late in the period is substantial. Any storms that can develop in the stronger instability could have an isolated severe threat.
..Broyles.. 08/07/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, August 13
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070853 SPC AC 070853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2020
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5
The medium-range models including the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and CANADIAN begin the day 4 to 8 period with a long fetch of west-northwesterly flow across the northwest and north-central United States. A shortwave trough and associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Great Lakes region on Monday where scattered strong thunderstorms may develop. Forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible there Monday afternoon and evening.
On Tuesday, the models keep westerly mid-level flow in place across much of the northern states and show a corridor of moderate instability across the central and northern Plains. Although large-scale ascent may be weak across the north-central states, thunderstorms could develop along the western edge of the stronger instability, in parts of the northern Plains. Forecast deep-layer shear in the northern Plains appears sufficient for an isolated severe threat Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
On Wednesday, both the ECMWF and GFS move a shortwave trough into the mid Mississippi Valley but have a shortwave ridge in the northern Plains. The models maintain a corridor of moderate instability in the central and northern Plains where isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible. Forecast deep-layer shear again appears sufficient for an isolated severe threat there Wednesday afternoon and evening.
On Thursday and Friday, model forecasts diverge sharply. The commonality among solutions is a corridor of low-level moisture and instability from the mid Missouri Valley into the northern Plains. Some solutions suggest an upper-level ridge will be in place in the north-central U.S. This would keep convective coverage minimal. However, uncertainty late in the period is substantial. Any storms that can develop in the stronger instability could have an isolated severe threat.
..Broyles.. 08/07/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, August 14
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070853 SPC AC 070853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2020
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5
The medium-range models including the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and CANADIAN begin the day 4 to 8 period with a long fetch of west-northwesterly flow across the northwest and north-central United States. A shortwave trough and associated cold front is forecast to move into the western Great Lakes region on Monday where scattered strong thunderstorms may develop. Forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggest an isolated severe threat will be possible there Monday afternoon and evening.
On Tuesday, the models keep westerly mid-level flow in place across much of the northern states and show a corridor of moderate instability across the central and northern Plains. Although large-scale ascent may be weak across the north-central states, thunderstorms could develop along the western edge of the stronger instability, in parts of the northern Plains. Forecast deep-layer shear in the northern Plains appears sufficient for an isolated severe threat Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
On Wednesday, both the ECMWF and GFS move a shortwave trough into the mid Mississippi Valley but have a shortwave ridge in the northern Plains. The models maintain a corridor of moderate instability in the central and northern Plains where isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible. Forecast deep-layer shear again appears sufficient for an isolated severe threat there Wednesday afternoon and evening.
On Thursday and Friday, model forecasts diverge sharply. The commonality among solutions is a corridor of low-level moisture and instability from the mid Missouri Valley into the northern Plains. Some solutions suggest an upper-level ridge will be in place in the north-central U.S. This would keep convective coverage minimal. However, uncertainty late in the period is substantial. Any storms that can develop in the stronger instability could have an isolated severe threat.
..Broyles.. 08/07/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, August 7
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, August 8
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, August 9
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, August 10
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Tuesday, August 11
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Wednesday, August 12
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Thursday, August 13
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Friday, August 14
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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