Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, May 9
Monday, May 10
Tuesday, May 11
Wednesday, May 12
Thursday, May 13
Friday, May 14
Saturday, May 15

Outlook for Sunday, May 9

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe storms are expected from parts of central/east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes all appear possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090536

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe storms are expected from parts of central/east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes all appear possible.

Central Texas to Middle Tennessee

Early this morning a mature MCS has evolved over northeast KS/northwest MO in advance of a mid-level short-wave trough. This complex of storms will likely begin to propagate southeast as LLJ veers across the Ozark Plateau into southern IL by the start of the period. Leading edge of this convection should approach southern MO by daybreak, just ahead of the cold front which should advance to a position from south-central MO-northwest AR-northern TX by 18z.

Latest short-range model guidance suggests weak mid-level height falls will spread across the OH Valley during the day1 period as a low amplitude trough ejects into IN by 18z, then into western PA by early evening. In the wake of this feature, surface pressures will rise over the middle of the country forcing a strong cold front to surge south into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley during peak-heating hours. This boundary will serve as the primary focus for robust convection, along with outflow from aforementioned MCS as it propagates into the Mid-South region.

Large-scale deep westerly flow will materialize across the pre-frontal warm sector from north TX into TN as the primary LLJ translates across KY into western PA ahead of the primary short wave. As a result, boundary-layer heating and frontal convergence will be the primary mechanisms for thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings suggest supercells are likely ahead of the front as surface-6km bulk shear will be on the order of 40kt where MLCAPE values should exceed 2000 J/kg. Local hail algorithms suggest 2+ inch stones are possible with the strongest storms. Additionally, while the more focused low-level shear/convergence will be well northeast of this region, there is some potential for a few tornadoes with these supercells. Overall, an elongated corridor of scattered severe storms should ultimately evolve from portions of central/northeast TX into western TN, primary along an axis of stronger buoyancy.

..Darrow/Karstens.. 05/09/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Monday, May 10

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur Monday across parts of south-central Texas. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, as well as southern Virginia into the Carolinas.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090558

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts may occur Monday across parts of south-central Texas. Other strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, as well as southern Virginia into the Carolinas.

South-Central Texas

A nearly stalled front should extend across central TX on Monday, with a dryline extending southward from this front into north-central Mexico. Nearly zonal mid-level flow will persist over the southern Plains, with nebulous large-scale forcing for ascent. Even so, low-level convergence along the front and sharpening dryline and modest east-southeasterly low-level flow should prove sufficient in tandem with strong diurnal heating to foster isolated convective development Monday afternoon/evening. The airmass along/south of the front and east of the dryline should become moderately to strongly unstable, with MLCAPE of 2000-3500+ J/kg forecast. Although the stronger mid-level westerly flow is forecast to remain mostly north of the front, winds should strengthen at upper levels. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will support supercell structures with any storms that can form.

The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and a long, generally straight hodograph at mid/upper levels suggest large to perhaps very large hail should be the main threat with any supercells. Isolated severe/damaging wind gusts may also occur with both the initially discrete storms, and any clusters that can develop east-southeastward through the evening. There is still some uncertainty with how much convection will ultimately form across the warm sector in south-central TX given the lack of obvious forcing aloft. But, the 12Z ECMWF and 00Z GFS both show a robust convective precipitation signal, and some convection-allowing guidance also develops multiple supercells across this region. Accordingly, confidence in convective initiation occurring has increased enough to include greater severe hail/wind probabilities across part of south-central TX.

Southern Virginia into the Carolinas

A low-amplitude shortwave trough should move off the East Coast early in the period. Other weak, convectively augmented mid-level perturbations may move eastward across the Carolinas and vicinity through the day. A trailing cold front extending across southern VA into western NC should be the primary forcing mechanism that will focus storm development Monday afternoon. Diurnal heating of a fairly moist low-level airmass will probably support MLCAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/kg by peak afternoon heating. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should foster a mix of supercells and clusters with initial development, with a tendency for some upscale growth through the afternoon and early evening given the linear forcing of the front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts both appear possible with these storms as they move east-southeastward. They should eventually move offshore and/or weaken by Monday evening.

Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast

Storms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across some part of the lower MS Valley and Southeast, but there is uncertainty with both the placement and intensity of this convection. Most guidance suggests that the better isolated severe storm threat should remain mostly to the south of these morning storms. Somewhat farther north, a surface front will likely serve as the northern limit for any appreciable severe potential. Given nebulous large-scale ascent forecast in model guidance, it remains unclear how much additional convection will develop Monday afternoon along/south of the front. Any storms that do form could become severe given a weakly to moderately unstable airmass and the presence of 35-50 kt of westerly mid-level flow. Isolated large hail and strong to damaging wind gusts should be the main threats. With considerable uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage and the effect of morning storms on the degree of destabilization Monday afternoon, will maintain a broad Marginal Risk area.

North-Central/East Texas to the ArkLaTex

Isolated to scattered storms may form through the period from parts of north-central/east TX to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Most of this activity should occur to the north of a surface front. But, the shallow nature of this front and the continued presence of steep mid-level lapse rates should allow for a reservoir of potentially moderate instability to remain across this region (MUCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg). Large hail will likely be the main severe threat with any storms that occur, as 40-50 kt of mid-level westerly flow will foster similar values of effective bulk shear.

..Gleason.. 05/09/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 11

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat May 08 2021

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Tuesday while deamplifying. Steep mid-level lapse rates should remain across parts of the southern Plains, potentially supporting enough instability for organized severe storms. Greater potential for surface-based convection will exist along/south of a slow-moving front that should be located from portions of TX across the lower MS Valley and into the Deep South. Deep-layer flow may only be marginally supportive of severe storms, and the overall severe potential on Tuesday across these regions currently appears too isolated/marginal to include a 15% severe area.

Severe potential appears generally low across the CONUS on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday. Surface high pressure should be in place across much of the central/eastern states in this time frame, with a front moving southward off the Gulf Coast generally limiting low-level moisture inland. There is some indication in medium-range guidance that modest low-level moisture return may occur across parts of the southern CONUS beginning around Day 7/Friday into Day 8/Saturday. But, there are still considerable differences and uncertainties regarding the synoptic-scale upper pattern across the CONUS in this extended time frame, suggesting predictability remains low.

..Gleason.. 05/08/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 12

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat May 08 2021

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Tuesday while deamplifying. Steep mid-level lapse rates should remain across parts of the southern Plains, potentially supporting enough instability for organized severe storms. Greater potential for surface-based convection will exist along/south of a slow-moving front that should be located from portions of TX across the lower MS Valley and into the Deep South. Deep-layer flow may only be marginally supportive of severe storms, and the overall severe potential on Tuesday across these regions currently appears too isolated/marginal to include a 15% severe area.

Severe potential appears generally low across the CONUS on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday. Surface high pressure should be in place across much of the central/eastern states in this time frame, with a front moving southward off the Gulf Coast generally limiting low-level moisture inland. There is some indication in medium-range guidance that modest low-level moisture return may occur across parts of the southern CONUS beginning around Day 7/Friday into Day 8/Saturday. But, there are still considerable differences and uncertainties regarding the synoptic-scale upper pattern across the CONUS in this extended time frame, suggesting predictability remains low.

..Gleason.. 05/08/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, May 13

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat May 08 2021

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Tuesday while deamplifying. Steep mid-level lapse rates should remain across parts of the southern Plains, potentially supporting enough instability for organized severe storms. Greater potential for surface-based convection will exist along/south of a slow-moving front that should be located from portions of TX across the lower MS Valley and into the Deep South. Deep-layer flow may only be marginally supportive of severe storms, and the overall severe potential on Tuesday across these regions currently appears too isolated/marginal to include a 15% severe area.

Severe potential appears generally low across the CONUS on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday. Surface high pressure should be in place across much of the central/eastern states in this time frame, with a front moving southward off the Gulf Coast generally limiting low-level moisture inland. There is some indication in medium-range guidance that modest low-level moisture return may occur across parts of the southern CONUS beginning around Day 7/Friday into Day 8/Saturday. But, there are still considerable differences and uncertainties regarding the synoptic-scale upper pattern across the CONUS in this extended time frame, suggesting predictability remains low.

..Gleason.. 05/08/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, May 14

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat May 08 2021

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Tuesday while deamplifying. Steep mid-level lapse rates should remain across parts of the southern Plains, potentially supporting enough instability for organized severe storms. Greater potential for surface-based convection will exist along/south of a slow-moving front that should be located from portions of TX across the lower MS Valley and into the Deep South. Deep-layer flow may only be marginally supportive of severe storms, and the overall severe potential on Tuesday across these regions currently appears too isolated/marginal to include a 15% severe area.

Severe potential appears generally low across the CONUS on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday. Surface high pressure should be in place across much of the central/eastern states in this time frame, with a front moving southward off the Gulf Coast generally limiting low-level moisture inland. There is some indication in medium-range guidance that modest low-level moisture return may occur across parts of the southern CONUS beginning around Day 7/Friday into Day 8/Saturday. But, there are still considerable differences and uncertainties regarding the synoptic-scale upper pattern across the CONUS in this extended time frame, suggesting predictability remains low.

..Gleason.. 05/08/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, May 15

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080854 SPC AC 080854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat May 08 2021

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Tuesday while deamplifying. Steep mid-level lapse rates should remain across parts of the southern Plains, potentially supporting enough instability for organized severe storms. Greater potential for surface-based convection will exist along/south of a slow-moving front that should be located from portions of TX across the lower MS Valley and into the Deep South. Deep-layer flow may only be marginally supportive of severe storms, and the overall severe potential on Tuesday across these regions currently appears too isolated/marginal to include a 15% severe area.

Severe potential appears generally low across the CONUS on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday. Surface high pressure should be in place across much of the central/eastern states in this time frame, with a front moving southward off the Gulf Coast generally limiting low-level moisture inland. There is some indication in medium-range guidance that modest low-level moisture return may occur across parts of the southern CONUS beginning around Day 7/Friday into Day 8/Saturday. But, there are still considerable differences and uncertainties regarding the synoptic-scale upper pattern across the CONUS in this extended time frame, suggesting predictability remains low.

..Gleason.. 05/08/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Sunday, May 9
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 30%
WIND: 30%
Monday, May 10
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Tuesday, May 11
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, May 12
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, May 13
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, May 14
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, May 15
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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