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Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Severe weather is not currently anticipated.
← back to overviewSPC AC 110531
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Severe weather is not currently anticipated.
Southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley
Substantial large-scale height falls are forecast across much of the Rockies/Plains region during the day1 period as upper troughing becomes established from MT into northern Mexico. Within this larger-scale trough, several embedded short waves will eject across northern Mexico into the southern Plains/lower MS Valley region. Even so, surface response will not be particularly impressive as surface ridging currently dominates the Plains with the leading edge of this air mass (cold front) extending across the TX Coastal Plain. Latest model guidance suggests this air mass will be reluctant to lift north until very late in the period, and modified Gulf air may not spread inland until later in the day2 period. For these reasons it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary instigator in convective development through the period. Forecast soundings exhibit very steep mid-level lapse rates atop the cooler boundary layer, and this should prove beneficial for elevated thunderstorm development ahead of each ejecting short-wave trough, modulated by the LLJ influence. Given the steep lapse rates, and strong effective shear, some updraft organization may occur. While the strongest organized storms may produce hail, at this time it's not entirely clear adequate instability will exist for severe hail, thus probabilities will not be introduced at this time.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia.
← back to overviewSPC AC 110638
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA
### SUMMARY
Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia.
Synopsis
A shortwave trough pivoting through the southern High Plains will begin to intensify by Wednesday afternoon as it approaches the mid-Mississippi Valley. A surface cyclone will evolve along a southward-surging cold front in the southern Plains. The surface low will deepen more substantially by late afternoon in the mid-Mississippi Valley as it moves quickly north and east. Richer Gulf moisture will return into the Southeast and may reach as far north as portions of Tennessee. The cold front will sweep through the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon and into Thursday morning.
Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States
Warm advection precipitation will likely be ongoing along the surface boundary Wednesday morning. Models vary on the spatial extent of precipitation with the ECMWF generally showing less clearing during the afternoon than other models. Available CAM guidance also shows similar variability. In terms of environment, low/mid 60s F dewpoints should reach through much of Alabama/Mississippi. Upper 60s F dewpoints are expected in southern Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama, but could potentially push as far north as central Mississippi/Alabama as strong advection continues into the evening. Effective shear of 50-60 kts will favor organized storms/bowing segments. This shear will initially be roughly parallel to the front, but, as the front surges southeast, shear vectors will have a greater cross-boundary component. Strong low-level shear will also be in place with a 45-55 kt low-level jet moving from Louisiana during the morning into Mississippi/Alabama during the afternoon.
The current expectation is for morning storms near the Sabine Valley to gradually intensify as they move northeast into a modestly destabilizing boundary-layer. How these storms evolve is uncertain. Damaging winds are a likely hazard, but, depending on storm mode and the degree of heating in Mississippi, could also pose a similar risk for tornadoes. Storms along the front are not likely to make much progress southeastward until the late afternoon. As the front moves, convective transport of the strong wind fields will promote damaging winds and strong low-level shear will bring a risk for embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. Discrete development ahead of the front during the evening is possible given strong theta-e advection and weak capping, but synoptic ascent will be displaced north which reduces confidence in that scenario. Surface-based storms become much less likely into Tennessee and Georgia.
..Wendt.. 02/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Piedmont. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low.
← back to overviewSPC AC 110814
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning into perhaps the afternoon in parts of the Piedmont. Additional thunderstorms may occur in coastal central California and parts of the Sacramento Valley. Severe weather potential currently appears low.
Synopsis
Thunderstorms will be ongoing early Thursday along a cold front in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. With forcing for ascent rapidly lifting northeastward away from the region, the overall severe threat with this activity appears low. An isolated strong gust could occur into mid-morning, however. Farther north in the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont, strong forcing could promote a few thunderstorms early in the period. As this activity moves eastward, it should encounter a cold air wedge east of the terrain. Northward advection of moisture is not likely to occur sufficiently to support much in the way of instability or strong surface gusts during the afternoon.
A strong upper trough will move into northern/central California late Thursday into Friday morning. As a frontal system impacts the region, strong forcing and cold air aloft are expected to support lift/buoyancy that will be marginally supportive of lightning activity. Some of this activity could extend inland into parts of the Sacramento Valley.
..Wendt.. 02/11/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Day 4 | Thursday, February 13 | low / uncertain |
Day 5 | Friday, February 14 | predictability too low |
Day 6 | Saturday, February 15 | 15% |
Day 7 | Sunday, February 16 | predictability too low |
Day 8 | Monday, February 17 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100937 SPC AC 100937
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday. Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide will minimize severe risk.
Southeast
There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South. This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday. Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data becomes available.
Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic
As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored.
..Wendt.. 02/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Day 4 | Thursday, February 13 | low / uncertain |
Day 5 | Friday, February 14 | predictability too low |
Day 6 | Saturday, February 15 | 15% |
Day 7 | Sunday, February 16 | predictability too low |
Day 8 | Monday, February 17 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100937 SPC AC 100937
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday. Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide will minimize severe risk.
Southeast
There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South. This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday. Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data becomes available.
Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic
As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored.
..Wendt.. 02/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Day 4 | Thursday, February 13 | low / uncertain |
Day 5 | Friday, February 14 | predictability too low |
Day 6 | Saturday, February 15 | 15% |
Day 7 | Sunday, February 16 | predictability too low |
Day 8 | Monday, February 17 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100937 SPC AC 100937
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday. Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide will minimize severe risk.
Southeast
There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South. This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday. Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data becomes available.
Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic
As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored.
..Wendt.. 02/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Day 4 | Thursday, February 13 | low / uncertain |
Day 5 | Friday, February 14 | predictability too low |
Day 6 | Saturday, February 15 | 15% |
Day 7 | Sunday, February 16 | predictability too low |
Day 8 | Monday, February 17 | potential too low |
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100937 SPC AC 100937
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday. Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide will minimize severe risk.
Southeast
There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South. This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday. Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data becomes available.
Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic
As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored.
..Wendt.. 02/10/2025
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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