Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, December 7
Wednesday, December 8
Thursday, December 9
Friday, December 10
Saturday, December 11
Sunday, December 12
Monday, December 13

Outlook for Tuesday, December 7

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070510

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday.

Synopsis

A broad upper-level cyclonic flow regime will persist across much of the CONUS today and tonight. An embedded shortwave trough will migrate through larger-scale flow from TX/northeast Mexico toward the southeast U.S. coast by Wednesday morning. The upper pattern will remain bifurcated across the western U.S. as an upper low/trough develops southward offshore from the CA coast and an upper ridge over the northern Intermountain region pushes eastward and is replaced by a shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest.

At the surface, post-frontal high pressure will encompass much of the eastern half of the CONUS, leading to mostly stable conditions and precluding a risk of severe thunderstorms. However, modest low/mid level warm advection will occur across the Southeast as the TX shortwave trough ejects eastward during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Shallow elevated convection, bringing mainly rain showers is expected with this warm advection regime, but a few lightning flashes are possible from southern LA into SC with any deeper cores that develop given modest midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft.

..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/07/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, December 8

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Wednesday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070532

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Wednesday.

Synopsis and Discussion

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Southeast in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Due to a prior frontal intrusion into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the bulk of this morning convection is expected to remain elevated, with only weak MUCAPE forecast. As a large-scale upper trough progresses quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS through the day, these thunderstorms will likewise move off the Atlantic Coast. Latest guidance is in general agreement that modest low-level moisture will be in place across parts of north FL and southern GA ahead of a reinforcing cold front. Some potential for surface-based thunderstorms may exist across this region Wednesday afternoon. But, poor low-level convergence along the front as low/mid-level winds quickly veer to westerly and particularly poor mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity.

..Gleason.. 12/07/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, December 9

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070808

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Tue Dec 07 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Thursday.

Synopsis and Discussion

Large-scale upper troughing is expected to amplify over the western CONUS on Thursday. A southern-stream shortwave trough initially just west of Baja California should move quickly northeastward over northern Mexico through the day. This feature is forecast to eventually reach the southern Plains late Thursday night into early Friday morning while being absorbed into the synoptic-scale upper trough over the western states. Robust lee cyclogenesis appears likely over the central High Plains through the period. A strong low-level mass response will transport rich low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward across central/east TX, the lower MS Valley, and Mid-South by the end of the period. Mainly elevated convection appears possible across this general region in the warm and moist low-level advection regime. MUCAPE is forecast to remain fairly muted owing to modest mid-level lapse rates, which should temper the overall severe potential with any thunderstorms that can develop on Thursday. Across the Pacific Northwest, isolated lightning flashes appear possible mainly along/near the WA/OR Coast with low-topped convection as cold mid-level temperatures associated with a progressive shortwave trough overspread this region.

..Gleason.. 12/07/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Friday, December 10

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060920 SPC AC 060920

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

There is general consensus in medium-range guidance that an upper trough will amplify from Day 4/Thursday through Day 6/Saturday as it advances eastward across the western/central CONUS. Low-level moisture should return northward ahead of this feature across much of the lower/mid MS Valley into the parts of the TN/OH Valleys. Instability should gradually increase in this time frame across these regions ahead of a developing surface low and attendant cold front. Sufficient deep-layer shear ahead of the upper trough would support thunderstorm organization.

Some increase in the severe threat may be realized from late Day 5/Friday and continuing through Day 6/Saturday, mainly over parts of the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and the Southeast where greater low-level moisture is forecast. Regardless, most guidance shows a positive tilt to the upper trough, and a large degree of front-parallel flow may tend to undercut convection that develops. This suggests that the overall severe threat may tend to remain more isolated/marginal, and a 15% severe area for either Day 5/Friday or Day 6/Saturday does not appear warranted at this time. As the upper trough and related surface features continue eastward on Day 7/Sunday, any lingering severe threat should move off the Atlantic Coast, with negligible severe potential across the CONUS thereafter.

..Gleason.. 12/06/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, December 11

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060920 SPC AC 060920

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

There is general consensus in medium-range guidance that an upper trough will amplify from Day 4/Thursday through Day 6/Saturday as it advances eastward across the western/central CONUS. Low-level moisture should return northward ahead of this feature across much of the lower/mid MS Valley into the parts of the TN/OH Valleys. Instability should gradually increase in this time frame across these regions ahead of a developing surface low and attendant cold front. Sufficient deep-layer shear ahead of the upper trough would support thunderstorm organization.

Some increase in the severe threat may be realized from late Day 5/Friday and continuing through Day 6/Saturday, mainly over parts of the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and the Southeast where greater low-level moisture is forecast. Regardless, most guidance shows a positive tilt to the upper trough, and a large degree of front-parallel flow may tend to undercut convection that develops. This suggests that the overall severe threat may tend to remain more isolated/marginal, and a 15% severe area for either Day 5/Friday or Day 6/Saturday does not appear warranted at this time. As the upper trough and related surface features continue eastward on Day 7/Sunday, any lingering severe threat should move off the Atlantic Coast, with negligible severe potential across the CONUS thereafter.

..Gleason.. 12/06/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, December 12

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060920 SPC AC 060920

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

There is general consensus in medium-range guidance that an upper trough will amplify from Day 4/Thursday through Day 6/Saturday as it advances eastward across the western/central CONUS. Low-level moisture should return northward ahead of this feature across much of the lower/mid MS Valley into the parts of the TN/OH Valleys. Instability should gradually increase in this time frame across these regions ahead of a developing surface low and attendant cold front. Sufficient deep-layer shear ahead of the upper trough would support thunderstorm organization.

Some increase in the severe threat may be realized from late Day 5/Friday and continuing through Day 6/Saturday, mainly over parts of the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and the Southeast where greater low-level moisture is forecast. Regardless, most guidance shows a positive tilt to the upper trough, and a large degree of front-parallel flow may tend to undercut convection that develops. This suggests that the overall severe threat may tend to remain more isolated/marginal, and a 15% severe area for either Day 5/Friday or Day 6/Saturday does not appear warranted at this time. As the upper trough and related surface features continue eastward on Day 7/Sunday, any lingering severe threat should move off the Atlantic Coast, with negligible severe potential across the CONUS thereafter.

..Gleason.. 12/06/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, December 13

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060920 SPC AC 060920

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

There is general consensus in medium-range guidance that an upper trough will amplify from Day 4/Thursday through Day 6/Saturday as it advances eastward across the western/central CONUS. Low-level moisture should return northward ahead of this feature across much of the lower/mid MS Valley into the parts of the TN/OH Valleys. Instability should gradually increase in this time frame across these regions ahead of a developing surface low and attendant cold front. Sufficient deep-layer shear ahead of the upper trough would support thunderstorm organization.

Some increase in the severe threat may be realized from late Day 5/Friday and continuing through Day 6/Saturday, mainly over parts of the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and the Southeast where greater low-level moisture is forecast. Regardless, most guidance shows a positive tilt to the upper trough, and a large degree of front-parallel flow may tend to undercut convection that develops. This suggests that the overall severe threat may tend to remain more isolated/marginal, and a 15% severe area for either Day 5/Friday or Day 6/Saturday does not appear warranted at this time. As the upper trough and related surface features continue eastward on Day 7/Sunday, any lingering severe threat should move off the Atlantic Coast, with negligible severe potential across the CONUS thereafter.

..Gleason.. 12/06/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, December 7
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Wednesday, December 8
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Thursday, December 9
ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, December 10
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, December 11
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, December 12
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, December 13
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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