Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, August 24
Sunday, August 25
Monday, August 26
Tuesday, August 27
Wednesday, August 28
Thursday, August 29
Friday, August 30
Saturday, August 31

Outlook for Saturday, August 24

Outlook Summary

The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 250047

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK

### SUMMARY

The greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from central and western Kansas into northern Oklahoma, with severe wind, damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible.

KS and OK vicinity this evening and tonight

A mid-level low/shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery this evening will slowly move eastward across KS through early Sunday morning. An associated mid-level cold pocket and a moist boundary layer has resulted in a moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) per the Dodge City evening raob. Models show storm development to increase primarily after sunset across western/central KS as a southerly LLJ strengthens. Upscale growth into an eventual cluster or two is expected over KS before moving southeast into OK late tonight into early Sunday morning. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with the activity this evening into the overnight hours.

ND this evening

A surface trough located near the ND/MT border is serving as a focus for thunderstorm development this evening. Adequate instability east of the surface trough may foster a couple of strong storms this evening before gradual boundary layer stabilization limits overall storm intensity by late evening.

..Smith.. 08/25/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, August 25

Outlook Summary

A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern Great Plains. More isolated severe storm activity is possible in the southern Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241717

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA

### SUMMARY

A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of the northern Great Plains. More isolated severe storm activity is possible in the southern Plains.

Synopsis

A strong mid-level jet will emanate from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies Sunday and will make slow eastward progress into the northern/central Plains Sunday night. Downstream of this jet and attendant trough, a more loosely phased and lower-amplitude trough will be oriented from the Mid-Mississippi Valley southward to Louisiana. Mid/upper ridging will extend from California to west Texas.

At the surface, a lee trough will gradually sharpen from the far western Dakotas through western Kansas and gradually move eastward through the evening. Another surface low will slowly organize across west Texas. Multiple outflow boundaries may persist/meander across the southern Plains/Ozarks as a convective complex migrates southeastward out of Kansas and weakens through the day. The Dakotas trough and Ozarks surface boundaries will impact severe potential throughout the forecast period. Finally, pending evolution of a tropical disturbance near the Texas/Louisiana coastlines, a low-end tornado threat may materialize across southern Louisiana late in the forecast period.

Dakotas, western Minnesota, and northern Nebraska

The combination of convergence along the sharpening lee trough across the western Dakotas and lift associated with the approaching exit region of the northern Rockies mid-level jet will foster scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon initially across the western Dakotas. These storms will develop in a steep lapse-rate environment, with 60s to near 70 F dewpoints supporting moderate to strong instability as deep shear values increase with the approach of the mid-level jet. Storms should be outflow-dominant initially and pose a wind/hail risk, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Significant hail may be a possibility with initial development given long, straight hodographs and potential for marginal supercell development. This risk will be re-evaluated in later updates for the possibility of a 10% significant hail risk area.

Over time, as storms increase in coverage and grow upscale, a mix of linear and cellular modes should evolve, including one or two strong to severe MCSs. These storms should encounter gradually increasing low-level shear attendant to a strengthening low-level let across the region, but should also encounter increasing low-level inhibition. They should also approach eastern portions of the outlook area overnight with some lingering hail/wind threat especially if storms can remain surface-based.

Southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks

An early morning MCS is expected to migrate southeastward through Kansas and Oklahoma, though most models depict a weakening trend with this activity. Any severe threat beyond mid-morning will be tied areas that can experience greater insolation/destabilization and possibly near any differential heating zones that can evolve. Shear profiles improve with western extent across Oklahoma late in the day as northwesterly mid-level flow increases atop modest southerly low-level flow, although this region will also reside just west of a mid-level trough, with attendant subsidence keeping any afternoon/early evening development isolated at best. The overall uncertainty of the severe threat precludes any increase in severe probabilities for this outlook, and ongoing probabilities will be reconfigured as mesoscale details become clearer.

Southern Louisiana

A weak low has recently formed off the Texas Gulf Coast (ref. NHC Tropical Outlook) and a very low risk of strengthening will exist with this system as it moves slowly east. Any increase in low-level wind fields will result in a modest tornado threat with convection across the region, though this scenario is too uncertain to introduce probabilities at this time.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight

..Cook.. 08/24/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Monday, August 26

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible along a cold front from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240724

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OK…SOUTHEAST KS…AND WESTERN MO

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible along a cold front from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday.

Synopsis

Upper troughing will persist across much of the northern third of the CONUS. A series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs will progress quickly through the base of this trough, helping to strengthen mid-level westerly/northwesterly flow and gradually progress the trough eastward.

Surface pattern early Monday morning will likely feature a cold front extending from a low over eastern Manitoba south-southwestward across the Plains to another low over the OK Panhandle. This front is expected to progress eastward/southeastward throughout the day, likely moving through much of the upper/mid MS Valley, Ozark Plateau, and OK by Tuesday morning.

Southern Plains northeastward into the Upper MS Valley

A warm, moist, and buoyant air mass is expected ahead of the aforementioned front. Additionally, strengthening mid-level flow will contribute to moderate vertical shear. As thunderstorms develop along the front, the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment supports the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and strong wind gusts.

The strongest instability is expected from north-central/northeast OK northeastward across southeast KS into western MO. In this area, dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are expected beneath mid-level lapse rates in excess of 7 degrees C per km, contributing to MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. A higher probability for severe thunderstorms exists over this area.

..Mosier.. 08/24/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 27

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240847 SPC AC 240847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a cold front will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into the southern Plains at the beginning of the period (12Z Tuesday). Showers and thunderstorms are possible along this front as it moves eastward/southeastward on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday but severe potential is expected to be mitigated by the displacement between the better shear (north) and the better low-level moisture and buoyancy (south).

Ridging in the wake of this front is expected to dominate the sensible weather across the eastern CONUS on D6/Thursday but the pattern is more uncertain across the central CONUS due to model inconsistencies. After D6/Thursday, growing model differences lead to low forecast confidence, although the persistent moisture across the central and southeastern CONUS suggests severe thunderstorms remain possible.

..Mosier.. 08/24/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 28

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240847 SPC AC 240847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a cold front will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into the southern Plains at the beginning of the period (12Z Tuesday). Showers and thunderstorms are possible along this front as it moves eastward/southeastward on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday but severe potential is expected to be mitigated by the displacement between the better shear (north) and the better low-level moisture and buoyancy (south).

Ridging in the wake of this front is expected to dominate the sensible weather across the eastern CONUS on D6/Thursday but the pattern is more uncertain across the central CONUS due to model inconsistencies. After D6/Thursday, growing model differences lead to low forecast confidence, although the persistent moisture across the central and southeastern CONUS suggests severe thunderstorms remain possible.

..Mosier.. 08/24/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, August 29

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240847 SPC AC 240847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a cold front will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into the southern Plains at the beginning of the period (12Z Tuesday). Showers and thunderstorms are possible along this front as it moves eastward/southeastward on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday but severe potential is expected to be mitigated by the displacement between the better shear (north) and the better low-level moisture and buoyancy (south).

Ridging in the wake of this front is expected to dominate the sensible weather across the eastern CONUS on D6/Thursday but the pattern is more uncertain across the central CONUS due to model inconsistencies. After D6/Thursday, growing model differences lead to low forecast confidence, although the persistent moisture across the central and southeastern CONUS suggests severe thunderstorms remain possible.

..Mosier.. 08/24/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, August 30

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240847 SPC AC 240847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a cold front will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into the southern Plains at the beginning of the period (12Z Tuesday). Showers and thunderstorms are possible along this front as it moves eastward/southeastward on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday but severe potential is expected to be mitigated by the displacement between the better shear (north) and the better low-level moisture and buoyancy (south).

Ridging in the wake of this front is expected to dominate the sensible weather across the eastern CONUS on D6/Thursday but the pattern is more uncertain across the central CONUS due to model inconsistencies. After D6/Thursday, growing model differences lead to low forecast confidence, although the persistent moisture across the central and southeastern CONUS suggests severe thunderstorms remain possible.

..Mosier.. 08/24/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, August 31

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240847 SPC AC 240847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a cold front will extend from the Upper Great Lakes into the southern Plains at the beginning of the period (12Z Tuesday). Showers and thunderstorms are possible along this front as it moves eastward/southeastward on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday but severe potential is expected to be mitigated by the displacement between the better shear (north) and the better low-level moisture and buoyancy (south).

Ridging in the wake of this front is expected to dominate the sensible weather across the eastern CONUS on D6/Thursday but the pattern is more uncertain across the central CONUS due to model inconsistencies. After D6/Thursday, growing model differences lead to low forecast confidence, although the persistent moisture across the central and southeastern CONUS suggests severe thunderstorms remain possible.

..Mosier.. 08/24/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, August 24
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 30%
WIND: 30%
Sunday, August 25
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, August 26
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, August 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, August 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, August 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, August 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, August 31
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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