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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, May 23
Friday, May 24
Saturday, May 25
Sunday, May 26
Monday, May 27
Tuesday, May 28
Wednesday, May 29
Thursday, May 30

Outlook for Thursday, May 23

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231950

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS…OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE…AND EASTERN MAINE

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight.

NE into IA

Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models.

Western OK and TX

A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912.

..Jewell.. 05/23/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/

Northern Plains

Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA.

Southern Plains

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it.

Maine

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details.

TN Valley

Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Friday, May 24

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 231721

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area.

Synopsis

On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected.

Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI

Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows.

Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear.

Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected.

Northeast TX into AR/Mid South

Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential.

Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors.

..Jewell.. 05/23/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, May 25

Outlook Summary

Potentially significant severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the the central and southern Plains vicinity on Saturday. All severe hazards are possible, including a couple strong tornadoes, damaging gusts and large to very large hail.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 30%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230738

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS…OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Potentially significant severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the the central and southern Plains vicinity on Saturday. All severe hazards are possible, including a couple strong tornadoes, damaging gusts and large to very large hail.

Central/Southern Plains to the Ozarks

A potentially significant severe-weather episode is possible on Saturday, especially from near the Red River northward across much of OK and into eastern KS. All severe hazards are expected.

An upper trough over the western U.S. is expected to shift east over the Plains. As this occurs, deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase over the region. A 500 mb jet around 60-70 kt is forecast along with an area of strong upper divergence. At the surface, a warm front is expected to lift quickly northward as southerly low-level flow increases in response to deepening low pressure over the southern High Plains. The warm front should impinge on southeast NE by 00z, extending east/southeast along the I-70 corridor. The warm front will continue to lift northward into IA overnight. Meanwhile, a sharpening dryline will extend southward from west-central KS to western OK and central TX. Surface dewpoints in the low 70s F will extend north into southern KS (and east across the Ozarks), with 60s F into southern NE/IA. Very steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong to extreme destabilization.

By 21-00z large-scale ascent is expected to overspread the dryline and northward-advancing warm front. Convective coverage is a bit uncertain, but at least widely scattered storms are expected. Nevertheless, an increasing low-level jet (850 mb southwesterly winds 45-60 kt) and vertically veering wind profiles will support supercells. Given expected instability, development may be rapid and intense, with storms quickly becoming severe. Strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging gusts are all possible, particularly from near the Red River into OK and eastern KS.

It is possible with time that one or more bowing segments will develop by late evening into the overnight hours as convection spreads east into the Ozarks. Damaging wind and QLCS tornado potential will accompany this activity.

TN Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia

Modest northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region on Saturday. A very moist and unstable airmass will present, supporting diurnal thunderstorm activity. Deep boundary-layer mixing and effective shear around 20-30 kt amid 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will support sporadic strong storms capable of locally strong gusts.

..Leitman.. 05/23/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, May 26

Outlook Images

any severe 30%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230857 SPC AC 230857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sun - Ozarks, Mid-MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys

A regional severe weather episode is expected on Day 4/Sunday. Significant severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards will be possible.

An upper trough will overspread the region, resulting in a corridor of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow overlapping a very moist and strongly unstable airmass. Forecast guidance depicts a 700 mb southwesterly jet around 45-60 kt over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, a surface low near northeast KS/northwest MO at the beginning of the period will deepen as it lifts northeast toward Lake Michigan through the evening. A cold front will develop east across the region from late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of the front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will support strong destabilization.

Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS/Lower MO Valley. The evolution of this activity is a bit uncertain, but may continue to develop east along a warm front draped across northern IL/IN. Additional convection is expected across the warm sector from southeast MO/northwest AR eastward into TN/KY. While storm mode/evolution remains a bit uncertain at this time (may be a mix of supercells and more linear convection), supercell wind profiles coupled with favorable thermodynamics will support all-hazards severe potential across a broad area during the day and into the nighttime hours.

Day 5/Mon - Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast

Spread among forecast guidance increases considerably on Monday and various models evolve the central U.S. upper trough quite a bit differently. If a more progressive system prevails, favorable vertical shear and large-scale ascent will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic vicinity (decreasing with southward extent into the Southeast). Severe-storm potential may develop ahead of an east/southeastward-advancing cold front if this scenario unfolds. However, uncertainty precludes introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

Forecast spread increases further late in the period. Overall severe potential appears to wane for much of the CONUS during this time, but predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 05/23/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, May 27

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230857 SPC AC 230857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sun - Ozarks, Mid-MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys

A regional severe weather episode is expected on Day 4/Sunday. Significant severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards will be possible.

An upper trough will overspread the region, resulting in a corridor of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow overlapping a very moist and strongly unstable airmass. Forecast guidance depicts a 700 mb southwesterly jet around 45-60 kt over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, a surface low near northeast KS/northwest MO at the beginning of the period will deepen as it lifts northeast toward Lake Michigan through the evening. A cold front will develop east across the region from late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of the front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will support strong destabilization.

Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS/Lower MO Valley. The evolution of this activity is a bit uncertain, but may continue to develop east along a warm front draped across northern IL/IN. Additional convection is expected across the warm sector from southeast MO/northwest AR eastward into TN/KY. While storm mode/evolution remains a bit uncertain at this time (may be a mix of supercells and more linear convection), supercell wind profiles coupled with favorable thermodynamics will support all-hazards severe potential across a broad area during the day and into the nighttime hours.

Day 5/Mon - Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast

Spread among forecast guidance increases considerably on Monday and various models evolve the central U.S. upper trough quite a bit differently. If a more progressive system prevails, favorable vertical shear and large-scale ascent will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic vicinity (decreasing with southward extent into the Southeast). Severe-storm potential may develop ahead of an east/southeastward-advancing cold front if this scenario unfolds. However, uncertainty precludes introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

Forecast spread increases further late in the period. Overall severe potential appears to wane for much of the CONUS during this time, but predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 05/23/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, May 28

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230857 SPC AC 230857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sun - Ozarks, Mid-MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys

A regional severe weather episode is expected on Day 4/Sunday. Significant severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards will be possible.

An upper trough will overspread the region, resulting in a corridor of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow overlapping a very moist and strongly unstable airmass. Forecast guidance depicts a 700 mb southwesterly jet around 45-60 kt over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, a surface low near northeast KS/northwest MO at the beginning of the period will deepen as it lifts northeast toward Lake Michigan through the evening. A cold front will develop east across the region from late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of the front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will support strong destabilization.

Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS/Lower MO Valley. The evolution of this activity is a bit uncertain, but may continue to develop east along a warm front draped across northern IL/IN. Additional convection is expected across the warm sector from southeast MO/northwest AR eastward into TN/KY. While storm mode/evolution remains a bit uncertain at this time (may be a mix of supercells and more linear convection), supercell wind profiles coupled with favorable thermodynamics will support all-hazards severe potential across a broad area during the day and into the nighttime hours.

Day 5/Mon - Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast

Spread among forecast guidance increases considerably on Monday and various models evolve the central U.S. upper trough quite a bit differently. If a more progressive system prevails, favorable vertical shear and large-scale ascent will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic vicinity (decreasing with southward extent into the Southeast). Severe-storm potential may develop ahead of an east/southeastward-advancing cold front if this scenario unfolds. However, uncertainty precludes introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

Forecast spread increases further late in the period. Overall severe potential appears to wane for much of the CONUS during this time, but predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 05/23/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, May 29

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230857 SPC AC 230857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sun - Ozarks, Mid-MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys

A regional severe weather episode is expected on Day 4/Sunday. Significant severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards will be possible.

An upper trough will overspread the region, resulting in a corridor of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow overlapping a very moist and strongly unstable airmass. Forecast guidance depicts a 700 mb southwesterly jet around 45-60 kt over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, a surface low near northeast KS/northwest MO at the beginning of the period will deepen as it lifts northeast toward Lake Michigan through the evening. A cold front will develop east across the region from late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of the front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will support strong destabilization.

Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS/Lower MO Valley. The evolution of this activity is a bit uncertain, but may continue to develop east along a warm front draped across northern IL/IN. Additional convection is expected across the warm sector from southeast MO/northwest AR eastward into TN/KY. While storm mode/evolution remains a bit uncertain at this time (may be a mix of supercells and more linear convection), supercell wind profiles coupled with favorable thermodynamics will support all-hazards severe potential across a broad area during the day and into the nighttime hours.

Day 5/Mon - Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast

Spread among forecast guidance increases considerably on Monday and various models evolve the central U.S. upper trough quite a bit differently. If a more progressive system prevails, favorable vertical shear and large-scale ascent will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic vicinity (decreasing with southward extent into the Southeast). Severe-storm potential may develop ahead of an east/southeastward-advancing cold front if this scenario unfolds. However, uncertainty precludes introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

Forecast spread increases further late in the period. Overall severe potential appears to wane for much of the CONUS during this time, but predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 05/23/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, May 30

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230857 SPC AC 230857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sun - Ozarks, Mid-MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys

A regional severe weather episode is expected on Day 4/Sunday. Significant severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards will be possible.

An upper trough will overspread the region, resulting in a corridor of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow overlapping a very moist and strongly unstable airmass. Forecast guidance depicts a 700 mb southwesterly jet around 45-60 kt over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, a surface low near northeast KS/northwest MO at the beginning of the period will deepen as it lifts northeast toward Lake Michigan through the evening. A cold front will develop east across the region from late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of the front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will support strong destabilization.

Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS/Lower MO Valley. The evolution of this activity is a bit uncertain, but may continue to develop east along a warm front draped across northern IL/IN. Additional convection is expected across the warm sector from southeast MO/northwest AR eastward into TN/KY. While storm mode/evolution remains a bit uncertain at this time (may be a mix of supercells and more linear convection), supercell wind profiles coupled with favorable thermodynamics will support all-hazards severe potential across a broad area during the day and into the nighttime hours.

Day 5/Mon - Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast

Spread among forecast guidance increases considerably on Monday and various models evolve the central U.S. upper trough quite a bit differently. If a more progressive system prevails, favorable vertical shear and large-scale ascent will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic vicinity (decreasing with southward extent into the Southeast). Severe-storm potential may develop ahead of an east/southeastward-advancing cold front if this scenario unfolds. However, uncertainty precludes introduction of 15 percent severe probabilities at this time.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

Forecast spread increases further late in the period. Overall severe potential appears to wane for much of the CONUS during this time, but predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 05/23/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Thursday, May 23
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 30%
Friday, May 24
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Saturday, May 25
ANY SEVERE: 30%
Sunday, May 26
ANY SEVERE: 30%
Monday, May 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, May 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, May 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, May 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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