Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, October 21
Monday, October 22
Tuesday, October 23
Wednesday, October 24
Thursday, October 25
Friday, October 26
Saturday, October 27

Outlook for Sunday, October 21

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms will be possible across the southwestern U.S. today. Severe weather is not expected across the continental United States today or tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210508

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms will be possible across the southwestern U.S. today. Severe weather is not expected across the continental United States today or tonight.

DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough will move eastward away from the East Coast today as surface high pressure settles in across the eastern third of the nation. Another upper-level trough will approach Baja California. Moisture advection ahead of the trough will increase surface dewpoints across parts of the southwestern U.S. In response, enough instability should be in place by afternoon for thunderstorm development from Arizona northward into Utah and westward into parts of Nevada and California. In spite of this, instability and shear is not expected to be sufficient for a severe threat.

..Broyles/Cook.. 10/21/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Monday, October 22

Outlook Summary

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday over much of the Great Basin and Arizona, with more isolated activity across southern Texas.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210506

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday over much of the Great Basin and Arizona, with more isolated activity across southern Texas.

Synopsis

A weak area of cyclonic flow aloft will move southward across northern Baja CA with midlevel southwesterly winds on the order of 30 kt into the Four Corners. Cool air aloft will combine with the presence of midlevel moisture to aid the development of scattered thunderstorms, from eastern NV across UT and into AZ. Hodographs may be sufficiently long to support a few cells capable of small hail, but the severe weather risk appears low at this time.

To the east, a weak disturbance will cross the Rio Grande into south TX, with an increase in low-level warm advection. This will result in weak elevated instability over southern TX, while a cool air mass remains at the surface. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient instability aloft to support a few lightning strikes within the broader zone of precipitation.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None

..Jewell.. 10/21/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, October 23

Outlook Summary

Isolated thunderstorms are expected from eastern Arizona and New Mexico northward into central Idaho on Tuesday. Lake effect showers may also produce lightning in the vicinity of Lake Ontario.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210544

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated thunderstorms are expected from eastern Arizona and New Mexico northward into central Idaho on Tuesday. Lake effect showers may also produce lightning in the vicinity of Lake Ontario.

Synopsis

Weak cyclonic flow and cool temperatures aloft will overspread much of the West, resulting in sufficiently steep lapse rates aloft to support afternoon thunderstorms. Elevated 700 mb humidity levels will stretch from northern Mexico and TX across the Four Corners states and into central ID, supporting scattered daytime thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Due to weak instability and a lack of appreciable shear, severe weather is not expected, though stronger MUCAPE values to around 1000 j/kg may support strong storms over AZ.

Elsewhere, a deep upper trough with 500 mb temperatures around -30 C will progress across the Northeast, with a low deepening over the Canadian Maritimes toward Wednesday morning. Weak instability associated with Lake Ontario may support a few low-topped thunderstorms across northern NY during the late afternoon, possibly producing very small hail.

..Jewell.. 10/21/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 24

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200733 SPC AC 200733

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Rather stable conditions will persist across the CONUS through about Thu/D6 as high pressure across the Great Lakes and Midwest keeps the more substantial low-level moisture offshore across the Gulf of Mexico. Various model solutions do show the potential for a trough amplification to occur across the Gulf of Mexico, possibly affecting Florida during the Fri/D7-Sat/D8 period. Predictability is low, but increasing wind shear and lift may interact with a moist air mass over Florida to support scattered severe thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the peninsula.

..Jewell.. 10/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, October 25

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200733 SPC AC 200733

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Rather stable conditions will persist across the CONUS through about Thu/D6 as high pressure across the Great Lakes and Midwest keeps the more substantial low-level moisture offshore across the Gulf of Mexico. Various model solutions do show the potential for a trough amplification to occur across the Gulf of Mexico, possibly affecting Florida during the Fri/D7-Sat/D8 period. Predictability is low, but increasing wind shear and lift may interact with a moist air mass over Florida to support scattered severe thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the peninsula.

..Jewell.. 10/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, October 26

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200733 SPC AC 200733

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Rather stable conditions will persist across the CONUS through about Thu/D6 as high pressure across the Great Lakes and Midwest keeps the more substantial low-level moisture offshore across the Gulf of Mexico. Various model solutions do show the potential for a trough amplification to occur across the Gulf of Mexico, possibly affecting Florida during the Fri/D7-Sat/D8 period. Predictability is low, but increasing wind shear and lift may interact with a moist air mass over Florida to support scattered severe thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the peninsula.

..Jewell.. 10/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, October 27

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200733 SPC AC 200733

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Rather stable conditions will persist across the CONUS through about Thu/D6 as high pressure across the Great Lakes and Midwest keeps the more substantial low-level moisture offshore across the Gulf of Mexico. Various model solutions do show the potential for a trough amplification to occur across the Gulf of Mexico, possibly affecting Florida during the Fri/D7-Sat/D8 period. Predictability is low, but increasing wind shear and lift may interact with a moist air mass over Florida to support scattered severe thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the peninsula.

..Jewell.. 10/20/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Sunday, October 21
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Monday, October 22
ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, October 23
ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, October 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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