Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, October 30
Saturday, October 31
Sunday, November 1
Monday, November 2
Tuesday, November 3
Wednesday, November 4
Thursday, November 5
Friday, November 6

Outlook for Friday, October 30

Outlook Summary

Only a few weak thunderstorms are possible over southern Florida today.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 300513

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Only a few weak thunderstorms are possible over southern Florida today.

South Florida

Strong short-wave trough, currently located over the southern Appalachians, will eject off the Atlantic Coast early in the day1 period. As this feature shifts east, trailing cold front will settle into south FL then slow as it moves across the FL Straits. This boundary will serve as the focus for potential convective development through the period, especially during the afternoon when boundary-layer heating will maximize buoyancy within a high-PW air mass (1.5-2"). Forecast soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE ahead of the front with 2000-3000 J/kg expected within a weakly sheared environment. For these reasons, isolated-scattered thunderstorms should be noted across the south FL warm sector later today.

..Darrow/Jirak.. 10/30/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Saturday, October 31

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Saturday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 300512

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Saturday.

Synopsis

A mid-level trough, initially over the western Dakotas Saturday morning, will amplify as it moves east to the upper Great Lakes by daybreak Sunday. In the low levels, relatively dry/stable conditions will encompass much of the Lower 48 with tranquil weather conditions prevailing. The exception for no thunderstorm activity will be the FL Everglades, where a few weak thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon.

..Smith.. 10/30/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, November 1

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 300625

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Sunday.

Synopsis

A powerful mid- to upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday into Sunday night. In the low levels, a cold front will concurrently sweep east across the lower Great Lakes and into the western Atlantic. Although an isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled out over the lower Great Lakes in association with shallow convection over lakes, it appears the only thunderstorm activity will occur over the Everglades and coastal south FL during the afternoon.

..Smith.. 10/30/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Monday, November 2

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300737 SPC AC 300737

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

There is high confidence of a quiescent period for severe thunderstorms during the extended period. A large-scale mid-level trough will exit the East Coast on Monday (day 4) with ridging occurring over the central U.S. on Tuesday (day 5). Models are in good agreement showing a quasi-zonal flow regime over the contiguous United States on Wednesday (day 6) followed by increased model spread. The operational ECMWF has been consistent the last few model runs in showing the development of a large-scale trough over the West Coast on Friday (day 8).

..Smith.. 10/30/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, November 3

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300737 SPC AC 300737

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

There is high confidence of a quiescent period for severe thunderstorms during the extended period. A large-scale mid-level trough will exit the East Coast on Monday (day 4) with ridging occurring over the central U.S. on Tuesday (day 5). Models are in good agreement showing a quasi-zonal flow regime over the contiguous United States on Wednesday (day 6) followed by increased model spread. The operational ECMWF has been consistent the last few model runs in showing the development of a large-scale trough over the West Coast on Friday (day 8).

..Smith.. 10/30/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, November 4

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300737 SPC AC 300737

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

There is high confidence of a quiescent period for severe thunderstorms during the extended period. A large-scale mid-level trough will exit the East Coast on Monday (day 4) with ridging occurring over the central U.S. on Tuesday (day 5). Models are in good agreement showing a quasi-zonal flow regime over the contiguous United States on Wednesday (day 6) followed by increased model spread. The operational ECMWF has been consistent the last few model runs in showing the development of a large-scale trough over the West Coast on Friday (day 8).

..Smith.. 10/30/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, November 5

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300737 SPC AC 300737

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

There is high confidence of a quiescent period for severe thunderstorms during the extended period. A large-scale mid-level trough will exit the East Coast on Monday (day 4) with ridging occurring over the central U.S. on Tuesday (day 5). Models are in good agreement showing a quasi-zonal flow regime over the contiguous United States on Wednesday (day 6) followed by increased model spread. The operational ECMWF has been consistent the last few model runs in showing the development of a large-scale trough over the West Coast on Friday (day 8).

..Smith.. 10/30/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, November 6

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300737 SPC AC 300737

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

There is high confidence of a quiescent period for severe thunderstorms during the extended period. A large-scale mid-level trough will exit the East Coast on Monday (day 4) with ridging occurring over the central U.S. on Tuesday (day 5). Models are in good agreement showing a quasi-zonal flow regime over the contiguous United States on Wednesday (day 6) followed by increased model spread. The operational ECMWF has been consistent the last few model runs in showing the development of a large-scale trough over the West Coast on Friday (day 8).

..Smith.. 10/30/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, October 30
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, October 31
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, November 1
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, November 2
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, November 3
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, November 4
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, November 5
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, November 6
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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