Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Thursday, June 11

Outlook Summary

Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, including far eastern Iowa, northern Missouri, northern/central Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Lower Michigan, and northern Indiana. This includes the potential for widespread/intense damaging winds (some 75+ mph), large hail, and several tornadoes, some of which may be strong to intense.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111622

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS…FAR EASTERN IOWA…AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, including far eastern Iowa, northern Missouri, northern/central Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Lower Michigan, and northern Indiana. This includes the potential for widespread/intense damaging winds (some 75+ mph), large hail, and several tornadoes, some of which may be strong to intense.

Midwest/Great Lakes

An active and impactful severe weather event is still expected across parts of the Midwest Great Lakes later this afternoon and evening. Ongoing bowing cluster across southeast IA/northwest IL/southwest WI and vicinity may continue to pose at least some severe wind and embedded QLCS tornado threat as it continues east-northeastward across parts of the Midwest this afternoon. There is still airmass recovery underway ahead of this activity, especially into central/northern IL, northern IN, and parts of southern Lower MI where strong heating is occurring. Enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly winds associated with a potent shortwave trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will overspread the developing warm sector this afternoon, and support organized severe potential, including the possibility of multiple tornadic supercells and widespread severe/damaging winds.

Even so, greater than usual uncertainty exists regarding redevelopment later today on the southern/western flank of ongoing convection across northern IL into northeast MO and vicinity. A gradual increase in both low-level and deep-layer shear is anticipated across this area as a 30-40+ kt southerly low-level jet develops eastward in tandem with the eastward-ejecting shortwave trough and mid-level jet. A mix of supercells and bowing segments appears probable as renewed thunderstorms develop along/ahead of the surface cold front this afternoon in a strongly unstable and rather favorably sheared environment. If at least semi-discrete supercell structures can be maintained, then potential exists for several tornadoes, and multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF-2/3+) given the enhanced low-level shear. Isolated large to very large hail may also occur with any sustained supercells.

Otherwise, numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds also appear likely through the period across parts of northern/central IL into southern Lower MI and northern IN. Both the ongoing cluster and eventual upscale growth of convection that develops this afternoon will likely produce severe/damaging winds, some of which could be significant (75+ mph). The northern extent of the severe risk into WI and northern Lower MI remains uncertain, but at least some wind and/or tornado threat will likely continue with eastward extent into the southern Great Lakes and northern IN this evening.

Eastern Kansas/Southern Missouri into the Southern Plains

Additional thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon and evening along the trailing cold front into portions of eastern KS/southern MO into the southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer shear is forecast to lag behind/to the north of the cold front. Still, around 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear and moderate to strong instability will support marginal supercell structures and loosely organized multicells capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds. A large component of boundary-parallel shear will likely lead to clustering and messy convective modes through the evening before thunderstorms gradually weaken with the loss of daytime heating.

Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians

Recent visible satellite imagery across much of the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians shows mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with ample low-level moisture present per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed soundings. Large-scale ascent associated with multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will likely support the development of widely scattered thunderstorms by afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the central Appalachians. Though deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, moderate to strong instability will exist with continued diurnal heating this afternoon. This will support stronger updrafts capable of scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps isolated hail. Multiple clusters should eventually emerge, with potential for organizing along outflow/cold pools, and more focused corridors of damaging winds possible across parts of the I-95 corridor from northern VA to eastern PA and NJ.

..Gleason/Flournoy.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 12

Outlook Summary

Clusters of thunderstorms may develop across the Appalachians into Mid Atlantic Friday afternoon through Friday evening, accompanied by potential to produce damaging wind gusts.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS VICINITY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

### SUMMARY

Clusters of thunderstorms may develop across the Appalachians into Mid Atlantic Friday afternoon through Friday evening, accompanied by potential to produce damaging wind gusts.

Discussion

Downstream of building mid-level ridging within the mid-latitudes, offshore of the Pacific coast, it still appears that flow will remain largely zonal across the northern tier of the interior U.S. through at least this period, between subtropical ridging centered over the northern Gulf Basin and a quasi-stationary mid-level low centered to the southwest of Hudson Bay. Across the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that generally modest to weak, though difluent and splitting, flow will prevail, as the most substantive upstream short wave perturbations pivot across and to the northwest of the lower Great Lakes, around the periphery of the low.

In lower levels, a surface cyclone is forecast to migrate north/northwestward into the Hudson Bay vicinity and occlude Friday through Friday night, with the trailing cold front advancing southeastward through much of the Mid Atlantic by 12Z Saturday. Across the lower Ohio through southern Great Plains Red River Valleys, the front, initially reinforced by convective outflow, is forecast to weaken, while a another influx of cooler/drier air slowly spreads south of the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, through the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region.

..Appalachians/Mid Atlantic

There still appears a general consensus within model output that seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content will support sizable potential instability (including CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) with insolation by early Friday afternoon, from portions of the Cumberland and Allegheny Plateau into the lee of the Blue Ridge and perhaps Poconos/Catskills. Coincident with at least subtle to weak mid-level height falls, and modest strengthening of flow in the 700-500 mb layer to 20-30 kt, the environment may become conducive to the evolution of modestly organizing clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe wind gusts.

Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains

Moistening southerly low-level flow, in the presence of steepening low-level lapse rates with daytime heating, may contribute to sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains, through the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa vicinity by early Friday evening. This may become supportive of scattered thunderstorm development with potential to produce severe hail and localized strong surface gusts.

Particularly closer to the southern periphery of the westerlies, near and east of the Raton Mesa, shear may become supportive of an organizing cluster propagating off the higher terrain, as a nocturnal low-level jet strengthens Friday evening. It might not be out of the question that probabilities for severe wind will need to be increased further across parts of northeastern New Mexico into southwestern Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 13

Outlook Summary

Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of all hazards appear possible Saturday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. More isolated severe weather appears possible across the upper Great Lakes, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110724

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of all hazards appear possible Saturday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. More isolated severe weather appears possible across the upper Great Lakes, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains.

Synopsis

A short-wave trough initially from the upper MS Valley into northern Rockies is forecast to amplify while pivoting east/southeast through the upper Midwest and mid/lower MO Valleys. That system will be attended by a belt of 50-60+ kt winds in the mid-levels, which are expected to extend from the mid MO Valley into the Great Lakes Saturday afternoon into night. At the surface, a cold front initially from the upper Midwest to low pressure over KS Saturday morning, will progress through the upper Great Lakes, mid/lower MO Valleys, and central Plains during the forecast period.

### Upper Great Lakes into Central and Southern Plains

The potential for early-day storms across portions of the mid MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau increases uncertainty in the location of afternoon/evening storms, as well as the distribution of instability across the region. Latest ensemble guidance indicates the highest likelihood for moderate to strong instability across portions of the central and southern Plains with greater spread in instability farther north across the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes.

Current thinking is that diurnally enhanced thunderstorms appear most likely to the northeast of the KS surface low northeast along the adjacent segment of the front with lesser confidence in storm coverage with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes. Deep-layer shear is expected to be sufficiently strong for organized storm modes, including supercells from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes with decreasing amounts of vertical shear into the southern Plains. Highest confidence in a more concentrated severe-weather episode remains centered across the central Plains into the lower MO Valley, where all hazards appear possible. Storms may eventually grow upscale into one or multiple complexes Saturday evening into night from the mid MS Valley through Ozark Plateau into the southern Plains.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Sunday, June 14

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, June 15

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, June 16

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, June 17

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, June 18

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sunday

The 00z models have trended toward a much stronger short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet, which will progress from the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front attendant to the Northeast short-wave trough will move through that region with the trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the OH and TN Valleys into the Gulf Coast states.

A much stronger low-level jet is now forecast ahead of the cold front across the Northeast, which will aid in greater air mass destabilization than indicated in previous model runs. When coupled with notably stronger vertical shear, the setup appears favorable for organized severe storms across the Mid-Atlantic, potentially into southern New England Sunday afternoon and evening.

### Day 5/Monday

The models suggest the Sunday/central Plains short-wave trough will progress through the mid MS into OH Valleys with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow stretching from the central Plains into Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, there is good model agreement that the primary synoptic front and associated warm sector will lie across TX and the Gulf Coast states, to the south of the stronger mid-level winds and forcing for ascent. Some severe-weather threat may develop along and south of the front; however, the marginal vertical shear is expected to limit the overall severe-weather threat.

Slightly stronger vertical shear is forecast across the central and southern High Plains, due to an easterly upslope regime in the low-levels. While the potential for more organized storms will exist in that region, severe-weather coverage may only be isolated.

### Day 6/Tuesday

The ensemble mean and deterministic models are suggestive that a mid-level disturbance will track from the central Plains into the lower OH and TN Valleys, contributing to overall amplification of the long-wave trough in place east of the Rockies. The primary surface front is expected to remain in place across the Gulf Coast states, to the immediate south of the stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level flow. While isolated occurrences of severe weather appear possible from the southern High Plains into Southeast, the potential for an organized severe-weather event remains in question.

Days 7-8/Wednesday and Thursday

The ensemble means indicate the progression of a strong mid-level jet streak into the northern and central Plains Wednesday with that feature moving through the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday. At the surface, the ensemble member low positions indicate clustering across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Wednesday, and across the Great Lakes into Ontario on Thursday. The rapid poleward return of a moist and unstable air mass is expected to occur ahead of the surface low and associated frontal system. As such, some severe weather appears possible across parts of the Midwest Wednesday, and perhaps OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic Thursday.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 11

TORNADO: 15%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 60%

Friday, June 12

TORNADO: low

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 30%

Saturday, June 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Sunday, June 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Monday, June 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, June 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Wednesday, June 17

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, June 18

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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