Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, August 10
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and eastern Oregon and vicinity.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101951
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EASTERN OR AND VICINITY
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and eastern Oregon and vicinity.
20z update
### Mid-Atlantic through this evening
Clusters of storms have formed near the Blue Ridge in VA, and along local convergence zones near the west shore of Chesapeake Bay. Outside of the storms, surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s F with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s, which is driving MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Additional clustering and some upscale growth is expected through the afternoon with outflow interactions, as storms spread eastward. Though temperature/moisture profiles are not particularly favorable for intense downdrafts, precipitation loading and 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km will support isolated tree damage with primarily sub-severe gusts.
Eastern OR into southeastern WA this afternoon/evening
An embedded shortwave trough has pivoted northward from OR to the Olympic Peninsula, with some associated/elevated convection. Farther east, forcing for ascent is more nebulous, and thunderstorm development will likely depend on terrain circulations across eastern OR and northern WA. The more probable area will be across east central/northeast OR, along the west edge of the monsoonal moisture plume and where boundary-layer dewpoints are being maintained in the 55-60 F range. MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and effective bulk shear near 30 kt will support the potential for isolated storms with strong-severe outflow winds and some hail later this afternoon/evening.
..Thompson.. 08/10/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022/
Mid Atlantic
Warm and humid surface conditions are present today over the Mid Atlantic region, with strong daytime heating resulting in afternoon MLCAPE of 2500 J/kg. A consensus of 12z model guidance suggests that scattered thunderstorms will form by early-afternoon over the mountains of eastern WV and western VA. This activity will spread slowly eastward into the Chesapeake Bay region. Forecast soundings and recent ACARS data from the DC/Baltimore area show very weak winds aloft and poor mid-level lapse rates. Given the lack of large scale forcing mechanisms, convection that forms in this area should be weakly organized. Nevertheless, isolated tree damage may briefly occur with the strongest cells.
WA/OR
An upper low is tracking northward off the OR/WA coast today, with relatively strong southerly deep-layer flow across the interior Pacific Northwest. Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 50s will result in a corridor of sufficient CAPE to pose a conditional threat of strong/severe storms this afternoon and evening across the MRGL risk area. Model guidance suggests that the coverage of storms will be quite limited. Nevertheless, any storm that can form/persist will pose a risk of gusty winds and hail.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Thursday, August 11
Outlook Summary
Isolated strong storms may occur across the northern Rockies, but the overall severe threat will be relatively low.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 101721
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated strong storms may occur across the northern Rockies, but the overall severe threat will be relatively low.
Synopsis
A midlevel high will persist over the central Rockies/High Plains, with an upstream trough over the Pacific Northwest, and a downstream trough over the OH Valley/Northeast. An initial/weak cold front from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic today will drift southward into the northern Gulf states and Southeast, while a reinforcing cold front moves southward into the OH Valley/Northeast. The richest low-level moisture and larger buoyancy will be confined along and south of the initial cold front, where vertical shear will be weak. Isolated downbursts cannot be ruled out across the Carolinas, but poor lapse rates will limit the threat.
The reinforcing cold front will become quasi-stationary from SD into IA, and may provide a focus for thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon. However, midlevel lapse rates will be poor across IA during the afternoon, where a narrow corridor of residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will contribute to weak buoyancy. Where midlevel lapse rates will be steeper over SD, the boundary layer will likely remain capped. There will be enough deep-layer northwesterly shear for organized/persistent storms along the front in IA, but the weak buoyancy will limit any severe threat. Otherwise, elevated storms are expected overnight from MN into IA as warm advection strengthens, but weak buoyancy will continue to limit storm intensity. Farther west, the monsoonal moisture plume will persist across AZ/NM/UT into western CO/western WY, with scattered (mainly diurnal) storms expected. Some gusty outflow winds will be possible in areas of steeper low-level lapse rates, but substantial clustering of strong-severe storms appears unlikely.
Northern Rockies Thursday afternoon/evening
After an embedded shortwave trough rotates northward over the OR/WA today, south-southwesterly flow aloft will persist through tomorrow from WA/OR into northern ID. The northwest edge of a monsoonal moisture plume will coincide with a weak baroclinic zone near the WA/OR/ID borders, with the potential for MLCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg and some enhancement to deep-layer flow/shear. Nebulous forcing for ascent (aside from local terrain) suggests that storm coverage will be too isolated and the threat for wind/hail will be too conditional to add severe probabilities at this time.
..Thompson.. 08/10/2022
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Friday, August 12
Outlook Summary
The threat for severe thunderstorms is expected to be relatively low on Friday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 100700
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
The threat for severe thunderstorms is expected to be relatively low on Friday.
Synopsis
Only minor changes to the large-scale pattern are expected on Friday, with a seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough persisting over the eastern CONUS, while an upper cyclone moves slowly northward off of the Pacific Northwest coast. A cold front will continue moving across parts of the Southeast. Another boundary will take on a more north-south orientation from the Ozark Plateau into the northern Plains and upper Midwest, with the northern portion moving northward as a warm front, while the southern portion acts as more of a backdoor cold front as it pushes westward.
At this time, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears relatively low on Friday. A few strong storms will be possible across the Southeast Friday afternoon, though the cold front may tend to outpace the stronger deep-layer flow/shear spreading in from the northwest. Scattered thunderstorms will also again be possible across parts of the interior West, though the stronger deep-layer flow/shear is expected to be displaced from the greater moisture/instability and storm coverage.
..Dean.. 08/10/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, August 13
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100742 SPC AC 100742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be relatively low through the extended-range period. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist across the eastern CONUS into next week, and possibly retrograde slightly into portions of the central CONUS. Periodic frontal passages associated with this trough are expected to keep richer low-level moisture confined to near the Gulf Coast, limiting the potential for substantial destabilization east of the Rockies. Any notable severe potential would most likely evolve from the northwesterly flow regime that will be in place from the northern Plains into the mid-MS Valley and Southeast, but confidence in the likelihood, location, and timing of any such scenario remains quite low at this time.
..Dean.. 08/10/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, August 14
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100742 SPC AC 100742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be relatively low through the extended-range period. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist across the eastern CONUS into next week, and possibly retrograde slightly into portions of the central CONUS. Periodic frontal passages associated with this trough are expected to keep richer low-level moisture confined to near the Gulf Coast, limiting the potential for substantial destabilization east of the Rockies. Any notable severe potential would most likely evolve from the northwesterly flow regime that will be in place from the northern Plains into the mid-MS Valley and Southeast, but confidence in the likelihood, location, and timing of any such scenario remains quite low at this time.
..Dean.. 08/10/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, August 15
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100742 SPC AC 100742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be relatively low through the extended-range period. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist across the eastern CONUS into next week, and possibly retrograde slightly into portions of the central CONUS. Periodic frontal passages associated with this trough are expected to keep richer low-level moisture confined to near the Gulf Coast, limiting the potential for substantial destabilization east of the Rockies. Any notable severe potential would most likely evolve from the northwesterly flow regime that will be in place from the northern Plains into the mid-MS Valley and Southeast, but confidence in the likelihood, location, and timing of any such scenario remains quite low at this time.
..Dean.. 08/10/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, August 16
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100742 SPC AC 100742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be relatively low through the extended-range period. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist across the eastern CONUS into next week, and possibly retrograde slightly into portions of the central CONUS. Periodic frontal passages associated with this trough are expected to keep richer low-level moisture confined to near the Gulf Coast, limiting the potential for substantial destabilization east of the Rockies. Any notable severe potential would most likely evolve from the northwesterly flow regime that will be in place from the northern Plains into the mid-MS Valley and Southeast, but confidence in the likelihood, location, and timing of any such scenario remains quite low at this time.
..Dean.. 08/10/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, August 17
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100742 SPC AC 100742
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
DISCUSSION
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be relatively low through the extended-range period. A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist across the eastern CONUS into next week, and possibly retrograde slightly into portions of the central CONUS. Periodic frontal passages associated with this trough are expected to keep richer low-level moisture confined to near the Gulf Coast, limiting the potential for substantial destabilization east of the Rockies. Any notable severe potential would most likely evolve from the northwesterly flow regime that will be in place from the northern Plains into the mid-MS Valley and Southeast, but confidence in the likelihood, location, and timing of any such scenario remains quite low at this time.
..Dean.. 08/10/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, August 10
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, August 11
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Friday, August 12
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Saturday, August 13
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Sunday, August 14
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Monday, August 15
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Tuesday, August 16
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Wednesday, August 17
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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