Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, July 16
Wednesday, July 17
Thursday, July 18
Friday, July 19
Saturday, July 20
Sunday, July 21
Monday, July 22
Tuesday, July 23

Outlook for Tuesday, July 16

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening, with the primary threats being large hail and severe wind gusts. Other strong storms will be possible into portions of the Midwest, and also from the lower and mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 30%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161236

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF MT/WY AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern and central High Plains this afternoon and evening, with the primary threats being large hail and severe wind gusts. Other strong storms will be possible into portions of the Midwest, and also from the lower and mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.

MT/WY into the Dakotas

Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough moving across parts of northern NV and southern ID. This feature will track into western MT later today, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of southern MT. Northeasterly upslope low-level flow into this region coupled with substantial heating and steep lapse rates aloft will promote vigorous updrafts by mid/late afternoon. Forecast soundings also show considerable deep-layer shear for supercell structures. These storms should track eastward across southeast MT and northeast WY during the early evening and into the western Dakotas after dark. Very large hail will be possible in the discrete supercells, but recent model runs are more bullish on a scenario where storms congeal into a fast-moving bowing complex posing a risk of more widespread damaging winds. Therefore have add an ENH risk area to the outlook.

IA

A large complex of storms is ongoing this morning over western IA. Model guidance and local VAD profiles suggest an area of enhanced flow aloft associated with an embedded MCV. Given the high theta-e air mass ahead of this system, some consideration was given to adding a SLGT risk for parts of IA for this afternoon. However, due to uncertainties regarding the early timing of the system, recent weakening trends, and the potential for clouds limiting destabilization, chose to maintain the ongoing MRGL risk.

MS/OH Valleys

A band of enhanced low/mid level winds associated with the remnants of Barry extends from LA/MS into IN/OH. Early visible satellite imagery suggests that pockets of heating will contribute to localized moderate CAPE values later today. Small bowing structures or transient supercells may develop with a risk of gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Smith.. 07/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, July 17

Outlook Summary

Strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong storms may also be noted across parts of the Plains and over portions of the northeastern US.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160513

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong storms may also be noted across parts of the Plains and over portions of the northeastern US.

Upper MS Valley

Seasonally strong mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the northern inter-mountain region during the day1 period which should aid organized convection across the northern High Plains Tuesday night. Latest guidance suggests an MCS may evolve ahead of this feature late day1 that should propagate across central SD by sunrise Wednesday. While late-evening guidance differs a bit regarding the timing of the affiliated short wave, there is reason to believe the Plains MCS may continue east into southern MN as LLJ shifts downstream ahead of the disturbance. It's not entirely clear how much convection, if any, will root into the boundary layer where more buoyant parcels will exist. However a strong signal does exist for organized elevated convection propagating east across southern MN along the nose of aforementioned LLJ. Wind and some hail are the primary threats.

Plains

Farther southwest along surface boundary, strong low-level heating will contribute to parcels reaching their convective temperatures and isolated high-based convection should evolve across eastern NE into western KS. This activity could produce isolated severe wind gusts as sub-cloud temp/dew point spreads may approach 40F at peak heating.

Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may also develop across eastern WY within post-frontal easterly flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest a few supercells may form after 22z and this activity should spread toward the Black Hills after sunset.

Isolated strong storms may also develop across eastern ND into northwest MN if sufficient instability develops in the wake of early-MCS that tracks across SD into southern MN. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be stronger across this region as exit region of 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across southeast ND into northwest MN during the early evening hours.

Delmarva to southern New England

Remnants of Barry are forecast to eject across the OH Valley into western NY/PA by 18z. Somewhat stronger mid-level flow will evolve ahead of this feature along a corridor into southern New England where boundary-layer heating is expected to be maximized. Forecast soundings exhibit mean cloud-layer flow on the order of 25kt. With surface temperatures expected to rise into the 90s, steepening surface-3km lapse rates should enhance downdraft potential with convection across this region.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal

..Darrow.. 07/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, July 18

Outlook Summary

A few strong storms may develop across parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes region Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160653

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION

### SUMMARY

A few strong storms may develop across parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes region Thursday.

Northern Plains/Great Lakes Region

Mid-level heights are expected to rise across the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region during the day3 period as upper ridging gradually expands across the southern 2/3rds of the CONUS. Latest guidance suggests a short-wave trough will eject across the upper Great Lakes into ON early in the period. Convection will likely be ongoing at sunrise ahead of this feature, aided in part by LLJ over northern lower MI. While some of this activity could prove strong, the primary concern for robust convection would be later in the day along a boundary draped across lower MI-WI-southern MN. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity along this boundary much of the period. However, convection could evolve by early evening along southern fringe of stronger westerlies. If so, wind will be the primary risk.

Upstream across ND, strong boundary-layer heating will contribute to destabilization across the northern Plains ahead of a progressive cold front. This wind shift should settle into central ND during the evening as notable short-wave trough ejects along the international border. Latest guidance suggests convection should evolve and spread east after sunset within a strongly sheared environment that would favor organization. Wind is the primary risk with this activity.

..Darrow.. 07/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Friday, July 19

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160726 SPC AC 160726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to dominate much of the CONUS during the medium-range period which will force stronger westerlies to retreat to near the international border. With time, center of upper high should build west into the central Rockies which would allow a more continental air mass to settle into the OH Valley. Prior to this evolution, primary risk for organized convection will be limited to the region from northern MT into the upper Great Lakes. Even so, capping issues and the lack of significant short-wave troughs south of the Canadian border suggest predictability will remain too low for severe probs this period.

..Darrow.. 07/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, July 20

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160726 SPC AC 160726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to dominate much of the CONUS during the medium-range period which will force stronger westerlies to retreat to near the international border. With time, center of upper high should build west into the central Rockies which would allow a more continental air mass to settle into the OH Valley. Prior to this evolution, primary risk for organized convection will be limited to the region from northern MT into the upper Great Lakes. Even so, capping issues and the lack of significant short-wave troughs south of the Canadian border suggest predictability will remain too low for severe probs this period.

..Darrow.. 07/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, July 21

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160726 SPC AC 160726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to dominate much of the CONUS during the medium-range period which will force stronger westerlies to retreat to near the international border. With time, center of upper high should build west into the central Rockies which would allow a more continental air mass to settle into the OH Valley. Prior to this evolution, primary risk for organized convection will be limited to the region from northern MT into the upper Great Lakes. Even so, capping issues and the lack of significant short-wave troughs south of the Canadian border suggest predictability will remain too low for severe probs this period.

..Darrow.. 07/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, July 22

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160726 SPC AC 160726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to dominate much of the CONUS during the medium-range period which will force stronger westerlies to retreat to near the international border. With time, center of upper high should build west into the central Rockies which would allow a more continental air mass to settle into the OH Valley. Prior to this evolution, primary risk for organized convection will be limited to the region from northern MT into the upper Great Lakes. Even so, capping issues and the lack of significant short-wave troughs south of the Canadian border suggest predictability will remain too low for severe probs this period.

..Darrow.. 07/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, July 23

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160726 SPC AC 160726

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to dominate much of the CONUS during the medium-range period which will force stronger westerlies to retreat to near the international border. With time, center of upper high should build west into the central Rockies which would allow a more continental air mass to settle into the OH Valley. Prior to this evolution, primary risk for organized convection will be limited to the region from northern MT into the upper Great Lakes. Even so, capping issues and the lack of significant short-wave troughs south of the Canadian border suggest predictability will remain too low for severe probs this period.

..Darrow.. 07/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 16
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 30%
Wednesday, July 17
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 18
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, July 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, July 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, July 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, July 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, July 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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