Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, July 27

Sunday, July 28

Monday, July 29

Tuesday, July 30

Wednesday, July 31

Thursday, August 1

Friday, August 2

Saturday, August 3

Outlook for Saturday, July 27

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, mainly this afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270600

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, mainly this afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

An occluded deep-layer cyclone will move eastward across parts of northern SK/AB today, as a larger scale upper-level trough will remain in place across much of the western CONUS into the northern Plains. Multiple embedded shortwaves within this trough will move across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies/Plains through the period. A surface trough will extend southward from the occluded low into the northern High Plains, with secondary low development possible across western SD.

Dakotas into northern MN

Elevated convection will likely linger into this morning across parts of northern MN, and also potentially across parts of the Dakotas. A convectively enhanced shortwave trough related to the Dakotas convection will move northeastward through the day. Some CAM guidance depicts robust storm redevelopment across northern MN by early/mid afternoon with a moist and increasingly unstable environment, as this shortwave interacts with modifying outflow. Should this development occur, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While this scenario remains uncertain, a couple of supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. The Slight Risk has been expanded eastward to cover this possible scenario, and additional eastward expansion is possible if confidence increases.

Farther west, there will be some potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central ND and potentially into western SD during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/midlevel lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas during the evening.

Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains vicinity

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as one embedded shortwave trough moves across WY into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave moves from CA into northern NV and southern ID. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY into western NE could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms.

..Dean/Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Sunday, July 28

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central/northern Plains on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270559

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central/northern Plains on Sunday.

Synopsis

An upper-level low across Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma will start to fill and accelerate northeast as an open wave on Sunday. A low amplitude mid-level trough will remain centered across the western CONUS with several embedded mid-level impulses within moderate southwesterly flow from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. Farther east, a mid-level trough will become a cutoff low over the Gulf Stream and start to retrograde toward the New England coast late in the forecast period.

Persistent southwesterly mid-level flow will result in lee troughing across the Plains and strengthening southerly surface flow. This will bring renewed Gulf moisture northward into the Upper Midwest and northern Plains.

Central/Northern Plains

A surface low will likely be located somewhere across western South Dakota on Sunday and will only drift slightly east through the day. East of this surface low, southerly winds will increase low-level moisture with dewpoints increasing to the upper 60s/near 70 by 00Z. By late afternoon, a warm front is forecast to become better defined across north-central South Dakota which, in addition to the cold front/dryline, should be a source for thunderstorm development as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region during the afternoon/evening. Moderate flow associated with this mid-level shortwave trough should result in 35 to 40 knots of effective shear by late afternoon which would be sufficient for supercells. Moderate instability and moderate shear will support a large hail threat, while inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will also support a severe wind threat. The low-level jet axis is mostly southeast of the greatest upper-level support and thus, upscale growth into an MCS remains uncertain. However, storm coverage may be great enough for upscale growth into one or more MCSs which could maintain some severe weather threat into the overnight hours across southern Minnesota and western Iowa where the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 35 to 45 knots Sunday night.

A Slight Risk has been introduced across South Dakota, in proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough, where greater storm coverage appears likely. Elsewhere, northeast to the Canadian border and farther south across Nebraska and northern Kansas, storm coverage remains more questionable, which precludes higher probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 07/27/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, July 29

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible in portions of the Midwest on Monday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270719

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible in portions of the Midwest on Monday.

Synopsis

On Monday, a broad, low-amplitude ridge will be centered across the High Plains with a trough axis near the Pacific Coast and a trough across the Ohio Valley and the East Coast. As the East Coast upper-level low continues to retrograde during the day, these features will phase into one larger trough across the eastern CONUS. Several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern CONUS and Canadian Prairies into the northwest flow across the Midwest.

Midwest

Rich Gulf moisture will become well established across the Midwest by Monday with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This will result in a very unstable environment with MLCAPE 3000+ J/kg across portions of the Upper Mississippi River Basin. This strongly unstable environment will develop beneath 25 to 40 knots of mid-level flow which will provide ample shear for storm organization. However, despite a favorable severe weather parameter space that is expected within a broad zone across the Midwest, the details remain highly uncertain. Thunderstorms will be likely Monday morning given the strong low-level jet across Missouri and Iowa Sunday night. It is unclear whether this convection may simply stabilize portions of the risk area and lessen the severe weather threat, or if upscale growth can occur and persist into the late morning and if a severe MCS can develop from this activity and move southward along the Mississippi River vicinity. However, if this does not occur and substantial destabilization is able to occur farther north, the greatest severe weather threat may be focused near southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The GFS favors this scenario with suppression of southern convection and a mid-level shortwave trough moving through southern Minnesota Monday afternoon. However, the ECMWF has a stronger southern-stream trough Monday morning which aids in greater storm maintenance across Missouri and southern Illinois. These inconsistencies are likely tied to Day2/Sunday convection across the Plains and therefore, it may not be clear where the greatest threat is until closer to the Day 1 period. A broad marginal risk across the region with the most favorable environment seems like the most appropriate outlook until mesoscale details become more clear.

..Bentley.. 07/27/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, July 30

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270844 SPC AC 270844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS.

Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest

A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time.

D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians

A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 07/27/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, July 31

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270844 SPC AC 270844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS.

Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest

A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time.

D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians

A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 07/27/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, August 1

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270844 SPC AC 270844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS.

Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest

A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time.

D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians

A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 07/27/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Friday, August 2

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270844 SPC AC 270844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS.

Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest

A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time.

D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians

A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 07/27/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Saturday, August 3

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270844 SPC AC 270844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS.

Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest

A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time.

D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians

A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest.

..Bentley.. 07/27/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 27: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Monday, July 29: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, July 30: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, July 31: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, August 1: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, August 2: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, August 3: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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