Severe Weather Outlook
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, April 19
Outlook Summary
Severe thunderstorms with considerable potential for producing damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are likely across much of the southern through mid Atlantic Coast region, particularly across the Carolinas into southern/central Virginia this afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 45%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 191253
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA
### SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms with considerable potential for producing damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are likely across much of the southern through mid Atlantic Coast region, particularly across the Carolinas into southern/central Virginia this afternoon and evening.
Coastal Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States
Few changes to ongoing Moderate/Enhanced Risk Outlook with the 13Z update.
An upper-level trough, which features a cyclonically curved strong polar jet within its base, is centered along the lower/middle Mississippi River Valley and Middle Gulf Coast early this morning. This upper trough will continue to gradually deepen over the Tennessee Valley, with the aforementioned polar jet ejecting northeastward, largely atop an east/northeastward-advancing cold front. A significant deep-layer strengthening of southerly winds above 1 km AGL will occur during the day, highlighted by as much as 90 kt/70 kt at 500 mb/700 mb, respectively, particularly across Georgia into the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
Semi-continuous bands of convection/squall line are ongoing from northern Florida into Georgia and the western Carolinas early this morning as of 13Z. Pockets of considerable cloud cover precedes this convection (and the cold front itself), which casts some uncertainty regarding the overall degree of destabilization and timing of general intensification, although steady low-level moistening and robust deep-layer/low-level winds will be compensatory factors. Guidance generally remains suggestive that an influx of boundary layer moisture across the Carolina coastal plain into the Piedmont may be accompanied by moderate boundary layer destabilization (including CAPE up to 1500 J/kg).
The aforementioned bands of convection should gradually increase in intensity across Georgia and the upstate Carolinas through late morning/early afternoon, with a semi-broken linearly prevalent convective mode expected. The strengthening deep-layer/low-level winds will likely yield further upscale growth and acceleration of convection across the Carolinas into southern Virginia through peak heating. Severe convective gusts may become fairly widespread. While damaging wind gusts appear to be the main threat with the northeastward and eastward advancing line of storms, a few embedded tornadoes may also be possible. Preceding the linearly prevalent convection, other showers/thunderstorms coincident with the warm/moist conveyor may also deepen and become increasingly rooted within the destabilizing boundary layer this afternoon across the Piedmont and coastal plain of the Carolinas into southern Virginia. These storms could materialize in a more discrete convective mode, at least initially conducive for supercells with some tornado risk aside from damaging winds.
Eastern Kentucky/Tennessee and Central Appalachians
Modest destabilization should occur this afternoon in relatively close proximity to the surface low and near/just ahead of the adjacent cold front. This should allow for at least isolated low-topped thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe.
Central/northeast Oregon
A couple of stronger storms could occur late this afternoon/early evening near/just ahead of an advancing cold front. Steep lapse rates and strengthening winds aloft could contribute to some convectively enhanced wind gusts, although the overall severe potential is currently expected to remain very low/isolated.
..Guyer/Goss.. 04/19/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 20
Outlook Summary
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the CONUS on Saturday or Saturday night.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190534
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the CONUS on Saturday or Saturday night.
DISCUSSION
An upper-level low will move across the eastern states on Saturday as a surface low moves northward into the lower Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will be possible to the east of the low across parts of eastern New York and southern New England. Instability is expected to be too weak for a severe threat in those locations. In the western U.S., an upper-level trough is forecast to move to near the coast of California with a lead shortwave trough moving into the southern Rockies. Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon from near the west coast trough eastward to ahead of the southern Rockies shortwave trough. These storms are also expected to remain below severe limits due to weak instability.
MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD
Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None
..Broyles.. 04/19/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, April 21
Outlook Summary
Marginally severe thunderstorms with a potential for hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central Plains on Sunday afternoon and evening.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 190703
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Marginally severe thunderstorms with a potential for hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central Plains on Sunday afternoon and evening.
Central Plains
An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday. West southwest mid-level flow should be in place across the south-central states. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the central Plains. The models generally have surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60 F ahead of the front which would result in an axis of instability by afternoon. Although a cap is present across the instability axis, isolated thunderstorms could initiate along the front where low-level convergence will be maximized. Forecast soundings along and just ahead of the front late Sunday afternoon show moderate deep-layer shear profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates suggesting a severe threat will be possible. Due to the cap, convection should struggle helping to keep the overall threat marginal during the late afternoon and early evening.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, April 22
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190845 SPC AC 190845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5
On Monday, the medium range models including the ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMET move an upper-level trough across the western states and have an upper-level ridge in the east. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast in the southern and central Plains with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture located from east Texas north-northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The models suggest that thunderstorms will be possible along the northwestern edge of the moist sector but uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude of moisture and instability. Although a severe threat will be possible, predictability is too low for an outlook area.
On Tuesday, the models move a cold front southward into the southern Plains extending east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front Tuesday afternoon. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be in the southern Plains where several solutions suggest surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. Uncertainty is again substantial concerning the finer-scale details on Tuesday.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
The models diverge somewhat on Wednesday concerning the position of an upper-level trough across the southern tier of the U.S. However, the ECMWF and GFS solutions are in agreement that a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across south Texas Wednesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear and moderate instability is forecast with convective potential. For this reason, it appears that a severe threat could develop across parts of south Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, would like to see more run to run consistency before adding a severe threat area.
On Thursday and Friday, the models move an upper-level trough across the southern U.S. but differ on the speed and timing of the system. The magnitude of instability ahead of the system is also in question. If a moderately unstable airmass develops across the Gulf Coast areas on Thursday and Friday, then a severe threat would be possible ahead of the upper-level trough. At this point, predictability remains too low to add a severe threat area.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 23
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190845 SPC AC 190845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5
On Monday, the medium range models including the ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMET move an upper-level trough across the western states and have an upper-level ridge in the east. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast in the southern and central Plains with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture located from east Texas north-northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The models suggest that thunderstorms will be possible along the northwestern edge of the moist sector but uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude of moisture and instability. Although a severe threat will be possible, predictability is too low for an outlook area.
On Tuesday, the models move a cold front southward into the southern Plains extending east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front Tuesday afternoon. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be in the southern Plains where several solutions suggest surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. Uncertainty is again substantial concerning the finer-scale details on Tuesday.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
The models diverge somewhat on Wednesday concerning the position of an upper-level trough across the southern tier of the U.S. However, the ECMWF and GFS solutions are in agreement that a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across south Texas Wednesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear and moderate instability is forecast with convective potential. For this reason, it appears that a severe threat could develop across parts of south Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, would like to see more run to run consistency before adding a severe threat area.
On Thursday and Friday, the models move an upper-level trough across the southern U.S. but differ on the speed and timing of the system. The magnitude of instability ahead of the system is also in question. If a moderately unstable airmass develops across the Gulf Coast areas on Thursday and Friday, then a severe threat would be possible ahead of the upper-level trough. At this point, predictability remains too low to add a severe threat area.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 24
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190845 SPC AC 190845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5
On Monday, the medium range models including the ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMET move an upper-level trough across the western states and have an upper-level ridge in the east. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast in the southern and central Plains with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture located from east Texas north-northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The models suggest that thunderstorms will be possible along the northwestern edge of the moist sector but uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude of moisture and instability. Although a severe threat will be possible, predictability is too low for an outlook area.
On Tuesday, the models move a cold front southward into the southern Plains extending east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front Tuesday afternoon. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be in the southern Plains where several solutions suggest surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. Uncertainty is again substantial concerning the finer-scale details on Tuesday.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
The models diverge somewhat on Wednesday concerning the position of an upper-level trough across the southern tier of the U.S. However, the ECMWF and GFS solutions are in agreement that a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across south Texas Wednesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear and moderate instability is forecast with convective potential. For this reason, it appears that a severe threat could develop across parts of south Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, would like to see more run to run consistency before adding a severe threat area.
On Thursday and Friday, the models move an upper-level trough across the southern U.S. but differ on the speed and timing of the system. The magnitude of instability ahead of the system is also in question. If a moderately unstable airmass develops across the Gulf Coast areas on Thursday and Friday, then a severe threat would be possible ahead of the upper-level trough. At this point, predictability remains too low to add a severe threat area.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 25
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190845 SPC AC 190845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5
On Monday, the medium range models including the ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMET move an upper-level trough across the western states and have an upper-level ridge in the east. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast in the southern and central Plains with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture located from east Texas north-northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The models suggest that thunderstorms will be possible along the northwestern edge of the moist sector but uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude of moisture and instability. Although a severe threat will be possible, predictability is too low for an outlook area.
On Tuesday, the models move a cold front southward into the southern Plains extending east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front Tuesday afternoon. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be in the southern Plains where several solutions suggest surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. Uncertainty is again substantial concerning the finer-scale details on Tuesday.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
The models diverge somewhat on Wednesday concerning the position of an upper-level trough across the southern tier of the U.S. However, the ECMWF and GFS solutions are in agreement that a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across south Texas Wednesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear and moderate instability is forecast with convective potential. For this reason, it appears that a severe threat could develop across parts of south Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, would like to see more run to run consistency before adding a severe threat area.
On Thursday and Friday, the models move an upper-level trough across the southern U.S. but differ on the speed and timing of the system. The magnitude of instability ahead of the system is also in question. If a moderately unstable airmass develops across the Gulf Coast areas on Thursday and Friday, then a severe threat would be possible ahead of the upper-level trough. At this point, predictability remains too low to add a severe threat area.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 26
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190845 SPC AC 190845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
DISCUSSION
Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5
On Monday, the medium range models including the ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMET move an upper-level trough across the western states and have an upper-level ridge in the east. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast in the southern and central Plains with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture located from east Texas north-northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The models suggest that thunderstorms will be possible along the northwestern edge of the moist sector but uncertainty is substantial concerning the magnitude of moisture and instability. Although a severe threat will be possible, predictability is too low for an outlook area.
On Tuesday, the models move a cold front southward into the southern Plains extending east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front Tuesday afternoon. The best chance for an isolated severe threat would be in the southern Plains where several solutions suggest surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. Uncertainty is again substantial concerning the finer-scale details on Tuesday.
Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8
The models diverge somewhat on Wednesday concerning the position of an upper-level trough across the southern tier of the U.S. However, the ECMWF and GFS solutions are in agreement that a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across south Texas Wednesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear and moderate instability is forecast with convective potential. For this reason, it appears that a severe threat could develop across parts of south Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this point, would like to see more run to run consistency before adding a severe threat area.
On Thursday and Friday, the models move an upper-level trough across the southern U.S. but differ on the speed and timing of the system. The magnitude of instability ahead of the system is also in question. If a moderately unstable airmass develops across the Gulf Coast areas on Thursday and Friday, then a severe threat would be possible ahead of the upper-level trough. At this point, predictability remains too low to add a severe threat area.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, April 19
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 45%
- Saturday, April 20
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Sunday, April 21
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Monday, April 22
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Tuesday, April 23
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Wednesday, April 24
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Thursday, April 25
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Friday, April 26
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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