Severe Weather Outlook
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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Wednesday, April 24
Outlook Summary
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240538
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING
### SUMMARY
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards.
Synopsis
An upper ridge over the Rockies will shift east into the Plains through tonight. However, guidance suggests subtle shortwave impulses will migrate through the ridge during the late afternoon into the evening/overnight. At the surface, strengthening lee troughing is forecast across eastern NM near the TX border. Meanwhile, a stationary boundary is forecast to extend across the TX South Plains vicinity into southern/central OK, while a dryline extends southward along the NM/TX border into southwest TX. Several forecast models suggest a bulge in the dryline is possible across far west TX where a weak surface low may develop. Overnight, the stationary boundary is expected to lift northward as a warm front, becoming located across the TX Panhandle into northern OK.
Further east, an upper trough will move across the Northeast states. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, though midlevel moisture will be plentiful. Cool temperatures aloft and modest westerly flow will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front.
OK - This Morning
Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this morning across central OK north of the stationary boundary in a warm advection regime along the north edge of returning low-level moisture. This activity is expected to be elevated. However, steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing westerly mid/upper flow should be sufficient for organized cells. Large hail will be possible with storms that develop. However, coverage remains in question given expected height rises through the morning hours as the upper ridge slowly shifts east.
West TX toward SW OK - This evening
Capping will preclude convection for most of the day. However, low-level moisture will increase with northwest extent on southeasterly low-level flow, and low 60s F dewpoints are expected into the Permian Basin and South Plains vicinity. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moistening boundary-layer will foster moderate instability from 1500-2500 J/kg. By late afternoon/early evening, convection should begin to develop as inhibition weakens due to increasing moisture and some indication of a weak impulse ejecting east across the southern Rockies. Veering low-level wind profiles become west/southwesterly aloft will result in favorable shear profiles supporting supercells. Large hail to 2 inches in diameter and gusts to 70 mph will be possible with storms that develop.
Northern OK - Late Tonight
As the stationary boundary lifts northward as a warm front overnight, another round of warm advection thunderstorms will be possible, this time from the eastern TX Panhandle into northern OK. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding coverage and location of potential development, though the overall environment (moderate elevated instability and modest shear) conditionally will support hail.
Northeast
While boundary-layer moisture will remain poor today, cold temperatures aloft will support weak instability. Deep-layer westerly flow around 20-30 kt may support transient organized cells/clusters by early afternoon. Meanwhile, heating ahead of the cold front will allow for steepening low-level lapse rates. Gusty winds to 40 mph will be possible with afternoon thunderstorms, but overall severe potential appears too low for severe probabilities.
..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/24/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 25
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 10%
wind 15%
hail 30%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240600
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible.
Synopsis
A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is still forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a deepening surface low will move from the central High Plains toward northwest KS/southwest NE by late Thursday night into Friday morning. A surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day, though convective outflow may limit its progress across parts of central/western KS. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO.
Southern/central Great Plains
Potential for a few intense supercells remains evident across western KS into western OK and the OK/TX Panhandles, with a threat for very large hail, severe wind gusts, and possibly a couple of strong tornadoes. Isolated supercells will also be possible into parts of northwest KS, southwest NE, and northeast CO. Some overnight severe potential also remains evident farther east into central KS/OK and north TX.
Substantial convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of eastern KS/OK. While this convection will likely remain elevated, some threat for hail and isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out through much of the day.This convection may persist through much of the day, driven by persistent low-level warm advection to the cool side of the effective outflow. Should this occur, outflow may tend to spread westward through the day, providing a limit to the eastward extent of higher-end severe potential.
Otherwise, a favorable conditional supercell environment is still expected to develop along/ahead of the dryline from western KS/OK into the OK/TX Panhandles, as low-level and deep-layer shear increase across a moderately to strongly unstable environment. While stronger ascent may not arrive across a broader portion of the central/southern Great Plains until evening, isolated supercell development will be possible by late afternoon.
Steep midlevel lapse rates will support an initial threat of very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with any supercell that persists into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase with time and eastward extent, and any longer-lived supercells could pose a strong tornado threat. Uncertainty remains regarding the number of supercells that develop, and the longevity of any such cells into the evening given that outflow may begin impinging on the warm sector from the east.
Another round of potentially severe storms may develop late Thursday night into Friday morning along the Pacific front/dryline. Moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection with this activity, which may tend to become linear with time. The overnight storms could pose some threat for all severe hazards, though the magnitude of the threat remains uncertain due to lingering near-surface stability and the unfavorable time of day.
Parts of the central/northern High Plains
Near/north of the deepening surface, relatively moist low-level southeasterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support increasing instability through the day. Favorable deep-layer shear will support isolated supercell potential by mid/late afternoon across northeast CO and adjacent portions of southwest NE and northwest KS. Very large hail (potentially 2-2.5 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary threat, though cells in the vicinity of the effective warm front will also be capable of producing a tornado or two.
Farther north, moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer shear will be weaker in this area, but may still be sufficient for modestly organized storms capable of large hail.
..Dean.. 04/24/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Friday, April 26
Outlook Summary
An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 240730
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARKS
### SUMMARY
An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible.
Synopsis
A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated occluding surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across MO into parts of IA, though its progress may be slowed by convective outflow resulting from extensive D2/Thursday convection.
Central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley
A relatively active severe weather day appears possible from eastern portions of the Great Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Ozarks on Friday. However, uncertainty remains regarding the impact of extensive antecedent convection on the quality of the warm sector.
Thunderstorms that develop late on D2/Thursday may be ongoing during the morning from eastern KS into central/eastern OK and north TX. At least some severe threat may persist through the morning with this convection, as it spreads into parts of MO/AR. With favorable deep-layer shear across the warm sector, some intensification of early convection will be possible during the afternoon, though there may be a tendency for storms to move eastward out of the primary instability axis. The strongest storms across eastern portions of the warm sector could pose at least some threat for all severe hazards, though magnitude of the threat remains uncertain.
With the dryline not expected to make a strong eastward push, some redevelopment cannot be ruled out later in the day. Depending on heating and destabilization trends, supercell development will be possible from eastern NE/western IA southward into the ArkLaTex region. Large hail (potentially in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and could accompany any supercell development in this area, given the persistence of rich low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Persistent moderate to strong low-level flow/shear will also support tornado potential, especially if supercells can be sustained near the ejecting shortwave and surface low across northern portions of the risk area.
Southwestward extent of the severe threat during the afternoon/evening remains uncertain. Development cannot be entirely ruled out from central OK into north/central TX along the nearly stalled dryline, though coverage would likely remain very isolated in the wake of the departing shortwave trough.
..Dean.. 04/24/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 27
Outlook Images
any severe 30%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday - Southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes
An active severe thunderstorm episode appears possible on Saturday across parts of the central and southern Plains, as a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspread a generally warm and moist warm sector. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southwest KS, with a dryline extending southward into west TX. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline, and potentially farther north/east within a moderate to strongly unstable and weakly capped warm sector. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. There is some potential for rather early initiation and evolution toward a complex convective mode with time, but any supercells within this regime could become tornadic as low-level shear/SRH notably increases during the afternoon/evening. A 30% area has been added from south-central/southeast KS into OK and north TX, where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm development within the favorable environment described above.
A separate regime of severe potential could evolve from eastern IA toward the upper Great Lakes, associated with the departing shortwave trough and surface low. While this system will gradually be weakening with time, storms could redevelop during the afternoon within a moist and weakly capped environment, with deep-layer shear remaining sufficiently strong for organized convection. Late in the period, extensive convection that initially develops over the central/southern Plains could also spread into parts of IA/IL/WI, with some severe potential.
D5/Sunday - ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest
A corridor of organized severe potential could again evolve from the ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest on D5/Sunday, as the strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the central Plains towards the upper Great Lakes. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear could support a mix of supercells and stronger storm clusters, though details remain uncertain at this time.
D6/Monday - ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley
Some severe threat could linger into D6/Monday across the ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley, as low-level moisture transport persists near the remnant frontal zone. However, in the wake of the departing upper trough, convection may tend to be less organized compared to previous days.
..Dean.. 04/24/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 28
Outlook Images
any severe 15%
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday - Southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes
An active severe thunderstorm episode appears possible on Saturday across parts of the central and southern Plains, as a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspread a generally warm and moist warm sector. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southwest KS, with a dryline extending southward into west TX. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline, and potentially farther north/east within a moderate to strongly unstable and weakly capped warm sector. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. There is some potential for rather early initiation and evolution toward a complex convective mode with time, but any supercells within this regime could become tornadic as low-level shear/SRH notably increases during the afternoon/evening. A 30% area has been added from south-central/southeast KS into OK and north TX, where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm development within the favorable environment described above.
A separate regime of severe potential could evolve from eastern IA toward the upper Great Lakes, associated with the departing shortwave trough and surface low. While this system will gradually be weakening with time, storms could redevelop during the afternoon within a moist and weakly capped environment, with deep-layer shear remaining sufficiently strong for organized convection. Late in the period, extensive convection that initially develops over the central/southern Plains could also spread into parts of IA/IL/WI, with some severe potential.
D5/Sunday - ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest
A corridor of organized severe potential could again evolve from the ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest on D5/Sunday, as the strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the central Plains towards the upper Great Lakes. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear could support a mix of supercells and stronger storm clusters, though details remain uncertain at this time.
D6/Monday - ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley
Some severe threat could linger into D6/Monday across the ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley, as low-level moisture transport persists near the remnant frontal zone. However, in the wake of the departing upper trough, convection may tend to be less organized compared to previous days.
..Dean.. 04/24/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 29
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday - Southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes
An active severe thunderstorm episode appears possible on Saturday across parts of the central and southern Plains, as a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspread a generally warm and moist warm sector. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southwest KS, with a dryline extending southward into west TX. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline, and potentially farther north/east within a moderate to strongly unstable and weakly capped warm sector. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. There is some potential for rather early initiation and evolution toward a complex convective mode with time, but any supercells within this regime could become tornadic as low-level shear/SRH notably increases during the afternoon/evening. A 30% area has been added from south-central/southeast KS into OK and north TX, where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm development within the favorable environment described above.
A separate regime of severe potential could evolve from eastern IA toward the upper Great Lakes, associated with the departing shortwave trough and surface low. While this system will gradually be weakening with time, storms could redevelop during the afternoon within a moist and weakly capped environment, with deep-layer shear remaining sufficiently strong for organized convection. Late in the period, extensive convection that initially develops over the central/southern Plains could also spread into parts of IA/IL/WI, with some severe potential.
D5/Sunday - ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest
A corridor of organized severe potential could again evolve from the ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest on D5/Sunday, as the strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the central Plains towards the upper Great Lakes. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear could support a mix of supercells and stronger storm clusters, though details remain uncertain at this time.
D6/Monday - ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley
Some severe threat could linger into D6/Monday across the ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley, as low-level moisture transport persists near the remnant frontal zone. However, in the wake of the departing upper trough, convection may tend to be less organized compared to previous days.
..Dean.. 04/24/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 30
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday - Southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes
An active severe thunderstorm episode appears possible on Saturday across parts of the central and southern Plains, as a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspread a generally warm and moist warm sector. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southwest KS, with a dryline extending southward into west TX. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline, and potentially farther north/east within a moderate to strongly unstable and weakly capped warm sector. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. There is some potential for rather early initiation and evolution toward a complex convective mode with time, but any supercells within this regime could become tornadic as low-level shear/SRH notably increases during the afternoon/evening. A 30% area has been added from south-central/southeast KS into OK and north TX, where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm development within the favorable environment described above.
A separate regime of severe potential could evolve from eastern IA toward the upper Great Lakes, associated with the departing shortwave trough and surface low. While this system will gradually be weakening with time, storms could redevelop during the afternoon within a moist and weakly capped environment, with deep-layer shear remaining sufficiently strong for organized convection. Late in the period, extensive convection that initially develops over the central/southern Plains could also spread into parts of IA/IL/WI, with some severe potential.
D5/Sunday - ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest
A corridor of organized severe potential could again evolve from the ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest on D5/Sunday, as the strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the central Plains towards the upper Great Lakes. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear could support a mix of supercells and stronger storm clusters, though details remain uncertain at this time.
D6/Monday - ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley
Some severe threat could linger into D6/Monday across the ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley, as low-level moisture transport persists near the remnant frontal zone. However, in the wake of the departing upper trough, convection may tend to be less organized compared to previous days.
..Dean.. 04/24/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 1
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
DISCUSSION
D4/Saturday - Southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes
An active severe thunderstorm episode appears possible on Saturday across parts of the central and southern Plains, as a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspread a generally warm and moist warm sector. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southwest KS, with a dryline extending southward into west TX. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline, and potentially farther north/east within a moderate to strongly unstable and weakly capped warm sector. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. There is some potential for rather early initiation and evolution toward a complex convective mode with time, but any supercells within this regime could become tornadic as low-level shear/SRH notably increases during the afternoon/evening. A 30% area has been added from south-central/southeast KS into OK and north TX, where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm development within the favorable environment described above.
A separate regime of severe potential could evolve from eastern IA toward the upper Great Lakes, associated with the departing shortwave trough and surface low. While this system will gradually be weakening with time, storms could redevelop during the afternoon within a moist and weakly capped environment, with deep-layer shear remaining sufficiently strong for organized convection. Late in the period, extensive convection that initially develops over the central/southern Plains could also spread into parts of IA/IL/WI, with some severe potential.
D5/Sunday - ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest
A corridor of organized severe potential could again evolve from the ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest on D5/Sunday, as the strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the central Plains towards the upper Great Lakes. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear could support a mix of supercells and stronger storm clusters, though details remain uncertain at this time.
D6/Monday - ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley
Some severe threat could linger into D6/Monday across the ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley, as low-level moisture transport persists near the remnant frontal zone. However, in the wake of the departing upper trough, convection may tend to be less organized compared to previous days.
..Dean.. 04/24/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Wednesday, April 24
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Thursday, April 25
- TORNADO: 10%
- HAIL: 30%
- WIND: 15%
- Friday, April 26
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Saturday, April 27
- ANY SEVERE: 30%
- Sunday, April 28
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Monday, April 29
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Tuesday, April 30
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Wednesday, May 1
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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