Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, February 16
Sunday, February 17
Monday, February 18
Tuesday, February 19
Wednesday, February 20
Thursday, February 21
Friday, February 22
Saturday, February 23

Outlook for Saturday, February 16

Outlook Summary

Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening from central California through the Oregon coast. Showers and a few thunderstorms are also expected later tonight over a portion of the Tennessee Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170057

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening from central California through the Oregon coast. Showers and a few thunderstorms are also expected later tonight over a portion of the Tennessee Valley.

Tennessee Valley area

A southwesterly low-level jet will strengthen from the lower MS through TN Valley tonight within the exit region of an intensifying upper jet accompanying a progressive shortwave trough. The resulting theta-e advection will contribute to weak (200-400 J/kg) MUCAPE with the base of the unstable layer near 850 mb. Interaction of the low-level jet with the pre-existing baroclinic zone and deeper ascent accompanying the shortwave trough will promote an increase in elevated convection including a few thunderstorms later tonight.

Central California through western Oregon

The 00Z RAOB data show 7-7.5 C/km lapse rates in the near surface to 500 mb layer along with very weak (100-300 J/kg) MUCAPE. A series of vorticity maxima moving southeastward through the broad upper trough will continue to promote areas of scattered showers. Though overall thermodynamic environment remains very marginal, isolated lightning strikes cannot be ruled out.

..Dial.. 02/17/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, February 17

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161722

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Sunday.

Synopsis and Discussion

A large-scale, positively tilted upper trough will persist over much of the CONUS on Sunday. A couple elevated thunderstorms may occur early in the period across parts of the TN Valley into the Appalachians as low-level warm air advection strengthens ahead of a weak mid-level impulse moving northeastward from the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Very weak instability will preclude a severe threat across this region. Other thunderstorms may form along a southeastward-moving cold front across parts of the Southeast through the day, although coverage should remain isolated at best due to negligible large-scale ascent with neutral to slightly rising mid-level height tendencies. Farther west, very isolated lightning strikes may occur across portions of coastal northern/central CA with cold mid-level temperatures beneath an upper trough. The prospect for thunderstorms farther east across the Great Basin and lower CO River Valley currently appears too limited for a general thunderstorm area.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None

..Gleason.. 02/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Monday, February 18

Outlook Summary

The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160811

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.

Discussion

Although embedded short wave developments remain somewhat unclear, models indicate that larger-scale western U.S. mid-level troughing may undergo some amplification during this period. It appears that this will occur as another in a series of short wave perturbations digs inland of the Pacific coast: this one to the south/southwest of the preceding impulses, across the Southwestern international border area.

Downstream, while mid-level subtropical ridging centered near/east of the Bahamas remains prominent, short wave ridging within the mid-latitude westerlies is forecast to build, in phase with the subtropical stream, across lower portions of the southern Plains into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. As a vigorous short wave impulse digs within a branch of westerlies to the north, to the southwest of Hudson Bay, it appears that increasingly confluent mid-level flow will support the southeastward development of the center of an expansive cold surface ridge, across the northern Plains through southern portions of the Great Lakes region.

The shallow southern/leading edge of the cold surface-based air appears likely to advance off the south Atlantic coast, while remaining quasi-stationary, beneath the mid-level ridging, across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through much of the remainder of the northern Gulf coast vicinity. Above it, a southerly return flow will be maintained, including further moistening off a modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf of Mexico, into the western and central Gulf Coast states.

In the presence of weak (but increasing) elevated instability, modest strengthening of the return flow (including 30-40 kt at 850 mb) may be accompanied by steepening isentropic ascent supportive of increasing potential for scattered thunderstorm development by late Monday night. Depending on the magnitude of CAPE and depth of the convective layer, the environment could become conducive to severe hail in the presence of strong vertical shear, mainly in a narrow corridor roughly across central Louisiana and adjacent portions of Texas and Mississippi. However, due to a number of lingering uncertainties, including timing near the end of the period, severe probabilities still appear less than 5 percent at the present time.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, February 19

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160942 SPC AC 160942

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that a fairly significant short wave impulse, emerging from larger-scale western U.S. upper troughing, will accelerate northeast of the southern Rockies next Tuesday, before continuing around the periphery of downstream mid-level ridging, across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region into the Northeast during the middle to latter portion of next week. This appears likely to be accompanied by considerable strengthening of southerly low-level flow (including 40-50+ kt at 850 mb) above cold surface ridging initially encompassing much of the nation east of the Rockies.

Guidance is suggestive that associated warming and moistening will contribute to the erosion of the cold surface-based air, and the development of a surface trough within which a weak surface low may track across the lower Mississippi toward lower Ohio Valley by late Tuesday into Wednesday. This may also be accompanied by a narrow corridor of boundary-layer destabilization across parts of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi, which could contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe storm development, including supercells. However, based largely on the general weakness of the forecast surface wave, it still appears most probable that any associated severe weather risk will remain mostly marginal in nature, at least in terms of storm coverage.

Thereafter, model spread concerning the pattern evolution increases into next weekend. However, guidance suggests some possibility that another vigorous impulse, emerging from the larger-scale western U.S. upper troughing, may support significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, accompanied by increasing convective potential as early as next Saturday.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, February 20

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160942 SPC AC 160942

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that a fairly significant short wave impulse, emerging from larger-scale western U.S. upper troughing, will accelerate northeast of the southern Rockies next Tuesday, before continuing around the periphery of downstream mid-level ridging, across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region into the Northeast during the middle to latter portion of next week. This appears likely to be accompanied by considerable strengthening of southerly low-level flow (including 40-50+ kt at 850 mb) above cold surface ridging initially encompassing much of the nation east of the Rockies.

Guidance is suggestive that associated warming and moistening will contribute to the erosion of the cold surface-based air, and the development of a surface trough within which a weak surface low may track across the lower Mississippi toward lower Ohio Valley by late Tuesday into Wednesday. This may also be accompanied by a narrow corridor of boundary-layer destabilization across parts of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi, which could contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe storm development, including supercells. However, based largely on the general weakness of the forecast surface wave, it still appears most probable that any associated severe weather risk will remain mostly marginal in nature, at least in terms of storm coverage.

Thereafter, model spread concerning the pattern evolution increases into next weekend. However, guidance suggests some possibility that another vigorous impulse, emerging from the larger-scale western U.S. upper troughing, may support significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, accompanied by increasing convective potential as early as next Saturday.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, February 21

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160942 SPC AC 160942

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that a fairly significant short wave impulse, emerging from larger-scale western U.S. upper troughing, will accelerate northeast of the southern Rockies next Tuesday, before continuing around the periphery of downstream mid-level ridging, across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region into the Northeast during the middle to latter portion of next week. This appears likely to be accompanied by considerable strengthening of southerly low-level flow (including 40-50+ kt at 850 mb) above cold surface ridging initially encompassing much of the nation east of the Rockies.

Guidance is suggestive that associated warming and moistening will contribute to the erosion of the cold surface-based air, and the development of a surface trough within which a weak surface low may track across the lower Mississippi toward lower Ohio Valley by late Tuesday into Wednesday. This may also be accompanied by a narrow corridor of boundary-layer destabilization across parts of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi, which could contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe storm development, including supercells. However, based largely on the general weakness of the forecast surface wave, it still appears most probable that any associated severe weather risk will remain mostly marginal in nature, at least in terms of storm coverage.

Thereafter, model spread concerning the pattern evolution increases into next weekend. However, guidance suggests some possibility that another vigorous impulse, emerging from the larger-scale western U.S. upper troughing, may support significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, accompanied by increasing convective potential as early as next Saturday.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, February 22

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160942 SPC AC 160942

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that a fairly significant short wave impulse, emerging from larger-scale western U.S. upper troughing, will accelerate northeast of the southern Rockies next Tuesday, before continuing around the periphery of downstream mid-level ridging, across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region into the Northeast during the middle to latter portion of next week. This appears likely to be accompanied by considerable strengthening of southerly low-level flow (including 40-50+ kt at 850 mb) above cold surface ridging initially encompassing much of the nation east of the Rockies.

Guidance is suggestive that associated warming and moistening will contribute to the erosion of the cold surface-based air, and the development of a surface trough within which a weak surface low may track across the lower Mississippi toward lower Ohio Valley by late Tuesday into Wednesday. This may also be accompanied by a narrow corridor of boundary-layer destabilization across parts of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi, which could contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe storm development, including supercells. However, based largely on the general weakness of the forecast surface wave, it still appears most probable that any associated severe weather risk will remain mostly marginal in nature, at least in terms of storm coverage.

Thereafter, model spread concerning the pattern evolution increases into next weekend. However, guidance suggests some possibility that another vigorous impulse, emerging from the larger-scale western U.S. upper troughing, may support significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, accompanied by increasing convective potential as early as next Saturday.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, February 23

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160942 SPC AC 160942

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that a fairly significant short wave impulse, emerging from larger-scale western U.S. upper troughing, will accelerate northeast of the southern Rockies next Tuesday, before continuing around the periphery of downstream mid-level ridging, across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region into the Northeast during the middle to latter portion of next week. This appears likely to be accompanied by considerable strengthening of southerly low-level flow (including 40-50+ kt at 850 mb) above cold surface ridging initially encompassing much of the nation east of the Rockies.

Guidance is suggestive that associated warming and moistening will contribute to the erosion of the cold surface-based air, and the development of a surface trough within which a weak surface low may track across the lower Mississippi toward lower Ohio Valley by late Tuesday into Wednesday. This may also be accompanied by a narrow corridor of boundary-layer destabilization across parts of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi, which could contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe storm development, including supercells. However, based largely on the general weakness of the forecast surface wave, it still appears most probable that any associated severe weather risk will remain mostly marginal in nature, at least in terms of storm coverage.

Thereafter, model spread concerning the pattern evolution increases into next weekend. However, guidance suggests some possibility that another vigorous impulse, emerging from the larger-scale western U.S. upper troughing, may support significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, accompanied by increasing convective potential as early as next Saturday.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, February 16
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, February 17
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, February 18
ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, February 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, February 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, February 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, February 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, February 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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