Severe Weather Outlook
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, June 15
Outlook Summary
Marginally severe thunderstorms may impact the coast of the Carolinas, as well as the central and eastern Gulf Coast today. Marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible in the northern High Plains.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150541
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS…CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST STATES…AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
### SUMMARY
Marginally severe thunderstorms may impact the coast of the Carolinas, as well as the central and eastern Gulf Coast today. Marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible in the northern High Plains.
Carolinas Coast/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast
An upper-level trough will move across the southern and central Appalachians today as a cold front advances southeastward across the Carolinas and eastern Gulf Coast states. By afternoon, the front should be located from far southern Mississippi into the Florida Panhandle and far eastern Carolinas. Thunderstorm development will be likely along parts of the front during the afternoon. Surface dewpoints along and south of the front in the 70 to 75 F range should result in the development of moderate to strong instability, with MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The storms are expected to remain multicellular along most of the front. The instability and steep low-level lapse rates will make marginally severe wind gusts possible. In addition, a few rotating storms with strong wind gusts and hail could develop in the eastern Carolinas, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be just above 30 kt.
Northern High Plains
An upper-level ridge will be in place today from the central Rockies northward into the northern High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from parts of Nebraska north-northwestward into southeast Montana. Moderate to strong instability will be likely along this corridor by afternoon. As surface temperatures peak, isolated convection may initiate along the instability corridor. The most likely area for initiation would be in the Black Hills where convection will be aided by topography. Any cell that can become rooted in the weakly forced environment could have a potential for strong wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles/Moore.. 06/15/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Outlook for Wednesday, June 16
Outlook Summary
A few marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota Wednesday afternoon and overnight.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150517
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA
### SUMMARY
A few marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota Wednesday afternoon and overnight.
Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley
A shortwave trough will continue eastward across MB with tail end grazing northern MT during the day. This will shunt the upper ridge east across the upper MS Valley. Later in the evening and overnight, height falls will occur over the area as the aforementioned shortwave trough turns rightward. A surface trough/wind shift will stretch from northwest MN at 00Z into western NE, and will move slowly eastward overnight. A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will develop over the MO Valley during the day, reaching southwest MN early Thursday.
Warm advection and lift within the surface trough may initiate a few storms by 00Z over northern MN and eastern SD, where moderate instability will exist. Hot temperatures west of the surface trough may mix out CIN with at least isolated storms expected. Both hail and wind will be possible given ample instability and 40+ kt deep-layer shear. Storms over northern MN may persist overnight, traveling southeastward as the low-level jet veers, with locally damaging gusts. Models differ on convective coverage, but there may eventually be enough evidence for a Slight Risk in later outlooks.
..Jewell.. 06/15/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Thursday, June 17
Outlook Summary
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 150728
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA INTO WISCONSIN
### SUMMARY
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region on Thursday.
Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will gradually shift southeastward across the northern Plains and upper MS valley on Thursday, with cooling aloft most prominent overnight. This will shunt the upper ridge eastward across MI during the day and into the Northeast by 12Z Friday.
At the surface, a trough/wind shift will extend roughly from MN into NE, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints from the mid MO Valley northward into MN, WI, and the U.P. of MI. The surface trough is forecast to be quasi-stationary through the period, providing several bouts of thunderstorms.
Thursday morning, storms may be ongoing across southern MN or IA, depending on how much nocturnal convection occurs Wednesday night, with strong wind gusts possible. Additional storms are likely near the surface trough (and perhaps residual outflow boundaries) farther north and west, though drying will increase late in the period with veering 850 mb winds. Over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE is possible by late afternoon where the air mass remains undisturbed from earlier storms. Effective shear is forecast to be around 50 kt, which will support a wind and hail threat.
..Jewell.. 06/15/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, June 18
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150846 SPC AC 150846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The main feature of interest for the Friday/D4 to Saturday/D5 period will be a shortwave trough that will move from the upper MS Valley toward the Great Lakes and across the Northeast. Models differ regarding the evolution of this trough, which decreases predictability. However, at least some severe threat is expected on both days.
On Friday/D4, storms may be ongoing early in the day across IL, IN, MI and OH along an advancing front. A large area of moderate west/northwest flow aloft will accompany the shortwave trough, with areas of instability most likely remaining south/west of the early day activity and ahead of the trailing cold front. This corridor of potential may exist anywhere from WV to MO, and will depend on the location of the front and any outflows. Probabilities may be introduced across parts of the Midwest or OH Valley for Friday/D4 as predictability increases.
For Saturday/D5, the severe risk appears to decrease overall as the upper trough either weakens (ECMWF solution), or outruns the better instability which may remain over the lower OH to MO Valleys. While minimal instability may exist ahead of the trough into the Northeast, predictability is low.
From Sunday/D6 to Tuesday/D8, another upper trough is forecast to amplify across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. This could result in severe wind potential across the mid MO and MS Valleys, but predictability is low with various model solutions currently.
..Jewell.. 06/15/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, June 19
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150846 SPC AC 150846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The main feature of interest for the Friday/D4 to Saturday/D5 period will be a shortwave trough that will move from the upper MS Valley toward the Great Lakes and across the Northeast. Models differ regarding the evolution of this trough, which decreases predictability. However, at least some severe threat is expected on both days.
On Friday/D4, storms may be ongoing early in the day across IL, IN, MI and OH along an advancing front. A large area of moderate west/northwest flow aloft will accompany the shortwave trough, with areas of instability most likely remaining south/west of the early day activity and ahead of the trailing cold front. This corridor of potential may exist anywhere from WV to MO, and will depend on the location of the front and any outflows. Probabilities may be introduced across parts of the Midwest or OH Valley for Friday/D4 as predictability increases.
For Saturday/D5, the severe risk appears to decrease overall as the upper trough either weakens (ECMWF solution), or outruns the better instability which may remain over the lower OH to MO Valleys. While minimal instability may exist ahead of the trough into the Northeast, predictability is low.
From Sunday/D6 to Tuesday/D8, another upper trough is forecast to amplify across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. This could result in severe wind potential across the mid MO and MS Valleys, but predictability is low with various model solutions currently.
..Jewell.. 06/15/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, June 20
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150846 SPC AC 150846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The main feature of interest for the Friday/D4 to Saturday/D5 period will be a shortwave trough that will move from the upper MS Valley toward the Great Lakes and across the Northeast. Models differ regarding the evolution of this trough, which decreases predictability. However, at least some severe threat is expected on both days.
On Friday/D4, storms may be ongoing early in the day across IL, IN, MI and OH along an advancing front. A large area of moderate west/northwest flow aloft will accompany the shortwave trough, with areas of instability most likely remaining south/west of the early day activity and ahead of the trailing cold front. This corridor of potential may exist anywhere from WV to MO, and will depend on the location of the front and any outflows. Probabilities may be introduced across parts of the Midwest or OH Valley for Friday/D4 as predictability increases.
For Saturday/D5, the severe risk appears to decrease overall as the upper trough either weakens (ECMWF solution), or outruns the better instability which may remain over the lower OH to MO Valleys. While minimal instability may exist ahead of the trough into the Northeast, predictability is low.
From Sunday/D6 to Tuesday/D8, another upper trough is forecast to amplify across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. This could result in severe wind potential across the mid MO and MS Valleys, but predictability is low with various model solutions currently.
..Jewell.. 06/15/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, June 21
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150846 SPC AC 150846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The main feature of interest for the Friday/D4 to Saturday/D5 period will be a shortwave trough that will move from the upper MS Valley toward the Great Lakes and across the Northeast. Models differ regarding the evolution of this trough, which decreases predictability. However, at least some severe threat is expected on both days.
On Friday/D4, storms may be ongoing early in the day across IL, IN, MI and OH along an advancing front. A large area of moderate west/northwest flow aloft will accompany the shortwave trough, with areas of instability most likely remaining south/west of the early day activity and ahead of the trailing cold front. This corridor of potential may exist anywhere from WV to MO, and will depend on the location of the front and any outflows. Probabilities may be introduced across parts of the Midwest or OH Valley for Friday/D4 as predictability increases.
For Saturday/D5, the severe risk appears to decrease overall as the upper trough either weakens (ECMWF solution), or outruns the better instability which may remain over the lower OH to MO Valleys. While minimal instability may exist ahead of the trough into the Northeast, predictability is low.
From Sunday/D6 to Tuesday/D8, another upper trough is forecast to amplify across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. This could result in severe wind potential across the mid MO and MS Valleys, but predictability is low with various model solutions currently.
..Jewell.. 06/15/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, June 22
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150846 SPC AC 150846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
DISCUSSION
The main feature of interest for the Friday/D4 to Saturday/D5 period will be a shortwave trough that will move from the upper MS Valley toward the Great Lakes and across the Northeast. Models differ regarding the evolution of this trough, which decreases predictability. However, at least some severe threat is expected on both days.
On Friday/D4, storms may be ongoing early in the day across IL, IN, MI and OH along an advancing front. A large area of moderate west/northwest flow aloft will accompany the shortwave trough, with areas of instability most likely remaining south/west of the early day activity and ahead of the trailing cold front. This corridor of potential may exist anywhere from WV to MO, and will depend on the location of the front and any outflows. Probabilities may be introduced across parts of the Midwest or OH Valley for Friday/D4 as predictability increases.
For Saturday/D5, the severe risk appears to decrease overall as the upper trough either weakens (ECMWF solution), or outruns the better instability which may remain over the lower OH to MO Valleys. While minimal instability may exist ahead of the trough into the Northeast, predictability is low.
From Sunday/D6 to Tuesday/D8, another upper trough is forecast to amplify across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. This could result in severe wind potential across the mid MO and MS Valleys, but predictability is low with various model solutions currently.
..Jewell.. 06/15/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, June 15
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Wednesday, June 16
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, June 17
- ANY SEVERE: 15%
- Friday, June 18
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Saturday, June 19
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Sunday, June 20
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Monday, June 21
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Tuesday, June 22
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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