TORNADO HQ: waiting on update ...

Finding your location risk...

Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

new youtube channel - we've just launched a new experimental youtube channel over at tornado HQ, including severe weather outlook videos.

National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, February 23
Saturday, February 24
Sunday, February 25
Monday, February 26
Tuesday, February 27
Wednesday, February 28
Thursday, February 29
Friday, March 1

Outlook for Friday, February 23

Outlook Summary

A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North Carolina.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230542

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC

### SUMMARY

A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North Carolina.

Carolinas

A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS through the day, as a strong upper-level jet (150 kt at 300 mb) intensifies near the base of the trough across the Southeast. A cold front initially draped from the central Appalachians southwestward to the FL Panhandle will move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves off of the Mid Atlantic coast and begins to deepen offshore by evening.

Destabilization in advance of the cold front will generally be limited by early-day cloudiness/precipitation and modest low-level moisture. However, in the wake of morning convection, modest diurnal heating beneath cooling temperatures aloft will steepen lapse rates and allow for MLCAPE to potentially increase to around 500 J/kg. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon along/ahead of the cold front, with the greatest relative storm coverage expected from SC into southeast NC. While convection will likely remain rather low-topped, effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few stronger cells and/or clusters, with an attendant threat of small to marginally severe hail and localized strong/damaging gusts.

..Dean/Lyons.. 02/23/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, February 24

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Saturday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230543

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Saturday.

Synopsis

In the wake of the prior days cold frontal passage offshore the Atlantic coast, surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS. Continental low-level flow trajectories and the cold front intruding into the southern Gulf will result in scant boundary-layer moisture. These conditions will mostly be unfavorable for thunderstorms on Saturday. The exception may be a couple of flashes near the eastern SC/NC border vicinity as a weak shortwave in the wake of the surface boundary moves offshore during the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support 100-200 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting low-topped convection. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible, overall coverage should remain low/brief.

..Leitman.. 02/23/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, February 25

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 230646

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Sunday.

Synopsis

Northwesterly flow aloft will become more zonal on Sunday as an upper trough over western Canada begins to dig southward toward the Pacific Northwest. This will result in height rises across central portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low over Alberta and Saskatchewan will deepen and a modestly increasing pressure gradient will overspread parts of the Plains. In response, southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will begin to transport 50s dewpoints across the east TX vicinity (low 60s along the immediate TX coast) by Monday morning. Despite this increasing moisture late in the period, thunderstorm activity is not expected given a lack of large scale forcing and scant instability.

..Leitman.. 02/23/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, February 26

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Strong southern stream westerly upper-level flow will extend from northwest Mexico through the southern half of the U.S. on Day 4/Mon. In northern stream flow, a strong upper trough will develop east/southeast from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern/central High Plains. Deepening surface low pressure over the northern Plains, with a surface trough extending southward through the southern Plains, will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Gulf of Mexico northward to the Mid-MS Valley. This will allow for substantial airmass modification ahead of the western upper trough and southeastward-advancing surface cold front through Day 6/Wed.

By Day 5/Tue afternoon, improved boundary-layer moisture (50s to low 60s F dewpoints) is forecast to arrive across the Ozark Plateau and the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley vicinity. At the same time, an EML with a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates shifting east from the Plains will overspread the central U.S. vicinity. This should allow for at least modest destabilization, though quality of surface-based instability remains in question given marginal low-level moisture. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and strong forcing associated with a surging cold front will support organized thunderstorms with an attendant severe risk across a broad region of the central U.S.

Uncertainty has increased heading into Day 6/Wed as this system shifts east across OH/TN Valley toward the Appalachians. The last couple of cycles from the ECMWF have the surface cold front surging east much faster than the GFS. While the operational GFS remains much slower, the GEFS ensemble guidance overall has trended faster. Given the combination of uncertainty and overall trends, severe probabilities will be maintained for Day 6/Wed, but trimmed. It is likely this delineated area will continue to change in the coming days given higher uncertainty.

Beyond Day 6/Wed, spread in forecast guidance continues to increase and predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 02/23/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, February 27

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Strong southern stream westerly upper-level flow will extend from northwest Mexico through the southern half of the U.S. on Day 4/Mon. In northern stream flow, a strong upper trough will develop east/southeast from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern/central High Plains. Deepening surface low pressure over the northern Plains, with a surface trough extending southward through the southern Plains, will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Gulf of Mexico northward to the Mid-MS Valley. This will allow for substantial airmass modification ahead of the western upper trough and southeastward-advancing surface cold front through Day 6/Wed.

By Day 5/Tue afternoon, improved boundary-layer moisture (50s to low 60s F dewpoints) is forecast to arrive across the Ozark Plateau and the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley vicinity. At the same time, an EML with a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates shifting east from the Plains will overspread the central U.S. vicinity. This should allow for at least modest destabilization, though quality of surface-based instability remains in question given marginal low-level moisture. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and strong forcing associated with a surging cold front will support organized thunderstorms with an attendant severe risk across a broad region of the central U.S.

Uncertainty has increased heading into Day 6/Wed as this system shifts east across OH/TN Valley toward the Appalachians. The last couple of cycles from the ECMWF have the surface cold front surging east much faster than the GFS. While the operational GFS remains much slower, the GEFS ensemble guidance overall has trended faster. Given the combination of uncertainty and overall trends, severe probabilities will be maintained for Day 6/Wed, but trimmed. It is likely this delineated area will continue to change in the coming days given higher uncertainty.

Beyond Day 6/Wed, spread in forecast guidance continues to increase and predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 02/23/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, February 28

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Strong southern stream westerly upper-level flow will extend from northwest Mexico through the southern half of the U.S. on Day 4/Mon. In northern stream flow, a strong upper trough will develop east/southeast from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern/central High Plains. Deepening surface low pressure over the northern Plains, with a surface trough extending southward through the southern Plains, will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Gulf of Mexico northward to the Mid-MS Valley. This will allow for substantial airmass modification ahead of the western upper trough and southeastward-advancing surface cold front through Day 6/Wed.

By Day 5/Tue afternoon, improved boundary-layer moisture (50s to low 60s F dewpoints) is forecast to arrive across the Ozark Plateau and the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley vicinity. At the same time, an EML with a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates shifting east from the Plains will overspread the central U.S. vicinity. This should allow for at least modest destabilization, though quality of surface-based instability remains in question given marginal low-level moisture. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and strong forcing associated with a surging cold front will support organized thunderstorms with an attendant severe risk across a broad region of the central U.S.

Uncertainty has increased heading into Day 6/Wed as this system shifts east across OH/TN Valley toward the Appalachians. The last couple of cycles from the ECMWF have the surface cold front surging east much faster than the GFS. While the operational GFS remains much slower, the GEFS ensemble guidance overall has trended faster. Given the combination of uncertainty and overall trends, severe probabilities will be maintained for Day 6/Wed, but trimmed. It is likely this delineated area will continue to change in the coming days given higher uncertainty.

Beyond Day 6/Wed, spread in forecast guidance continues to increase and predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 02/23/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, February 29

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Strong southern stream westerly upper-level flow will extend from northwest Mexico through the southern half of the U.S. on Day 4/Mon. In northern stream flow, a strong upper trough will develop east/southeast from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern/central High Plains. Deepening surface low pressure over the northern Plains, with a surface trough extending southward through the southern Plains, will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Gulf of Mexico northward to the Mid-MS Valley. This will allow for substantial airmass modification ahead of the western upper trough and southeastward-advancing surface cold front through Day 6/Wed.

By Day 5/Tue afternoon, improved boundary-layer moisture (50s to low 60s F dewpoints) is forecast to arrive across the Ozark Plateau and the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley vicinity. At the same time, an EML with a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates shifting east from the Plains will overspread the central U.S. vicinity. This should allow for at least modest destabilization, though quality of surface-based instability remains in question given marginal low-level moisture. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and strong forcing associated with a surging cold front will support organized thunderstorms with an attendant severe risk across a broad region of the central U.S.

Uncertainty has increased heading into Day 6/Wed as this system shifts east across OH/TN Valley toward the Appalachians. The last couple of cycles from the ECMWF have the surface cold front surging east much faster than the GFS. While the operational GFS remains much slower, the GEFS ensemble guidance overall has trended faster. Given the combination of uncertainty and overall trends, severe probabilities will be maintained for Day 6/Wed, but trimmed. It is likely this delineated area will continue to change in the coming days given higher uncertainty.

Beyond Day 6/Wed, spread in forecast guidance continues to increase and predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 02/23/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, March 1

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230824 SPC AC 230824

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Strong southern stream westerly upper-level flow will extend from northwest Mexico through the southern half of the U.S. on Day 4/Mon. In northern stream flow, a strong upper trough will develop east/southeast from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern/central High Plains. Deepening surface low pressure over the northern Plains, with a surface trough extending southward through the southern Plains, will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Gulf of Mexico northward to the Mid-MS Valley. This will allow for substantial airmass modification ahead of the western upper trough and southeastward-advancing surface cold front through Day 6/Wed.

By Day 5/Tue afternoon, improved boundary-layer moisture (50s to low 60s F dewpoints) is forecast to arrive across the Ozark Plateau and the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley vicinity. At the same time, an EML with a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates shifting east from the Plains will overspread the central U.S. vicinity. This should allow for at least modest destabilization, though quality of surface-based instability remains in question given marginal low-level moisture. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear and strong forcing associated with a surging cold front will support organized thunderstorms with an attendant severe risk across a broad region of the central U.S.

Uncertainty has increased heading into Day 6/Wed as this system shifts east across OH/TN Valley toward the Appalachians. The last couple of cycles from the ECMWF have the surface cold front surging east much faster than the GFS. While the operational GFS remains much slower, the GEFS ensemble guidance overall has trended faster. Given the combination of uncertainty and overall trends, severe probabilities will be maintained for Day 6/Wed, but trimmed. It is likely this delineated area will continue to change in the coming days given higher uncertainty.

Beyond Day 6/Wed, spread in forecast guidance continues to increase and predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 02/23/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, February 23
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Saturday, February 24
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, February 25
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, February 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, February 27
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, February 28
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, February 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, March 1
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.


About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.