Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Wednesday, February 26
Thursday, February 27
Friday, February 28
Saturday, February 29
Sunday, March 1
Monday, March 2
Tuesday, March 3
Wednesday, March 4

Outlook for Wednesday, February 26

Outlook Summary

Showers and isolated thunderstorms may contribute to potential for locally damaging wind gusts tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic coast region. Isolated strong to severe storms also remain possible across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270058

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA

### SUMMARY

Showers and isolated thunderstorms may contribute to potential for locally damaging wind gusts tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic coast region. Isolated strong to severe storms also remain possible across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula.

01Z Outlook Update

### Mid Atlantic Coast region

As a 110+ kt 500 mb jet streak noses northeastward to the lee of the southern Appalachians, 27/00Z surface analysis suggests that a secondary surface low may be in the process of forming near Charlotte VA. Spread has been evident within the various model output concerning this feature, but the latest Rapid Refresh suggest that it may migrate northeastward toward the Washington D.C. area, before more rapid deepening takes place after 03-04Z, southeast/east of Washington D.C., through New Jersey and southeast New York state by 12Z. The most substantive strengthening of southerly low-level wind fields will await the more rapid surface deepening. This could include 40-50+ kt at 850 mb, but this may be mostly near/east of northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas into New England.

Potential for even very weak warm sector boundary-layer destabilization appears limited (north of the eastern North Carolina coastal plain), and may be confined to southeastern Virginia into the Delmarva Peninsula this evening, just ahead of the eastward surging cold front in the wake of the low. This seems to offer the best potential for convection which could aid the downward transfer of higher momentum to the surface and contribute to localized potentially damaging surface gusts.

To the west and north of the developing surface low, from the lee of the Blue Ridge into south central and southeastern Pennsylvania, despite the strong mid/upper-level wind fields, relatively modest speeds in the lowest 3 km AGL (30-40+ kt) and a lingering stable layer near the surface may mitigate the potential for convectively enhanced surface gusts.

Southern Florida

Forcing to support further intensification of the ongoing pre-frontal line of thunderstorms (now southeast of Fort Myers and Vero Beach) remains unclear. However, the boundary layer ahead of the southeastward advancing line remains weak to modestly unstable in the presence of strong deep layer shear, and it may remain conditionally supportive of isolated strong to severe storm development through 03-06Z.

..Kerr.. 02/27/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Thursday, February 27

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 261717

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Thursday.

Synopsis

An upper low is progged to evolve over the Lower Great Lakes region and adjacent parts of Canada, with a much larger region of broad cyclonic flow expected to encompass the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. through the period. Farther west, a ridge will remain centered roughly over the West Coast.

With an eastern U.S. cold front expected to have cleared the eastern U.S. prior to the start of the period, cool/dry/stable air will prevail across the country. As such, thunderstorms are not expected.

..Goss.. 02/26/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Friday, February 28

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday over the contiguous United States.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260700

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday over the contiguous United States.

Synopsis and Discussion

An upper low should remain centered over Quebec and vicinity on Friday, with a couple embedded shortwave troughs acting to reinforce large-scale upper troughing over the eastern states. With offshore low-level flow expected to continue along the Gulf Coast, low-level moisture will likely remain insufficient to support thunderstorms east of the Rockies.

A shortwave trough will move over parts of the Pacific Northwest Friday evening/night. Mid-level temperatures will cool with the approach of this feature, but instability along the immediate WA Coast is forecast to remain very meager at best. Although a lightning flash or two cannot be completely ruled out across this area, overall thunderstorm chances currently appear less than 10%.

..Gleason.. 02/26/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Saturday, February 29

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260800 SPC AC 260800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

Valid 291200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough should impact the western CONUS this upcoming weekend, eventually closing off over parts of the Southwest and adjacent northern Mexico around Day 5/Sunday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that this upper trough/low will eject east-northeastward across the Plains early next week. However, there are still differences regarding the degree of low-level moisture return and resultant instability that will develop ahead of this feature over the Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Some severe threat may exist from late Day 6/Monday into Day 7/Tuesday, mainly across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. This threat could continue into parts of the Southeast on Day 8/Wednesday. Inclusion of 15% severe probabilities in this extended time frame appears imprudent given the differences in both how and when the upper trough/low ejects over the Plains (positive versus negative tilt), and uncertainty regarding the low-level moisture return across these regions.

..Gleason.. 02/26/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, March 1

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260800 SPC AC 260800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

Valid 291200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough should impact the western CONUS this upcoming weekend, eventually closing off over parts of the Southwest and adjacent northern Mexico around Day 5/Sunday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that this upper trough/low will eject east-northeastward across the Plains early next week. However, there are still differences regarding the degree of low-level moisture return and resultant instability that will develop ahead of this feature over the Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Some severe threat may exist from late Day 6/Monday into Day 7/Tuesday, mainly across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. This threat could continue into parts of the Southeast on Day 8/Wednesday. Inclusion of 15% severe probabilities in this extended time frame appears imprudent given the differences in both how and when the upper trough/low ejects over the Plains (positive versus negative tilt), and uncertainty regarding the low-level moisture return across these regions.

..Gleason.. 02/26/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, March 2

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260800 SPC AC 260800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

Valid 291200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough should impact the western CONUS this upcoming weekend, eventually closing off over parts of the Southwest and adjacent northern Mexico around Day 5/Sunday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that this upper trough/low will eject east-northeastward across the Plains early next week. However, there are still differences regarding the degree of low-level moisture return and resultant instability that will develop ahead of this feature over the Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Some severe threat may exist from late Day 6/Monday into Day 7/Tuesday, mainly across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. This threat could continue into parts of the Southeast on Day 8/Wednesday. Inclusion of 15% severe probabilities in this extended time frame appears imprudent given the differences in both how and when the upper trough/low ejects over the Plains (positive versus negative tilt), and uncertainty regarding the low-level moisture return across these regions.

..Gleason.. 02/26/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, March 3

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260800 SPC AC 260800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

Valid 291200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough should impact the western CONUS this upcoming weekend, eventually closing off over parts of the Southwest and adjacent northern Mexico around Day 5/Sunday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that this upper trough/low will eject east-northeastward across the Plains early next week. However, there are still differences regarding the degree of low-level moisture return and resultant instability that will develop ahead of this feature over the Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Some severe threat may exist from late Day 6/Monday into Day 7/Tuesday, mainly across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. This threat could continue into parts of the Southeast on Day 8/Wednesday. Inclusion of 15% severe probabilities in this extended time frame appears imprudent given the differences in both how and when the upper trough/low ejects over the Plains (positive versus negative tilt), and uncertainty regarding the low-level moisture return across these regions.

..Gleason.. 02/26/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, March 4

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260800 SPC AC 260800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

Valid 291200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper trough should impact the western CONUS this upcoming weekend, eventually closing off over parts of the Southwest and adjacent northern Mexico around Day 5/Sunday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that this upper trough/low will eject east-northeastward across the Plains early next week. However, there are still differences regarding the degree of low-level moisture return and resultant instability that will develop ahead of this feature over the Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Some severe threat may exist from late Day 6/Monday into Day 7/Tuesday, mainly across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. This threat could continue into parts of the Southeast on Day 8/Wednesday. Inclusion of 15% severe probabilities in this extended time frame appears imprudent given the differences in both how and when the upper trough/low ejects over the Plains (positive versus negative tilt), and uncertainty regarding the low-level moisture return across these regions.

..Gleason.. 02/26/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, February 26
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: 5%
Thursday, February 27
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Friday, February 28
ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, February 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, March 1
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, March 2
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, March 3
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, March 4
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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