Severe Weather Outlook
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Saturday, May 21
Outlook Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both damaging winds and large hail should continue through evening from parts of the southern Plains into the lower Ohio Valley, lower Great Lakes and Northeast.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211955
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO SOUTHERN TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both damaging winds and large hail should continue through evening from parts of the southern Plains into the lower Ohio Valley, lower Great Lakes and Northeast.
20Z Update
The primary change made to the Day 1 Outlook was to trim higher severe probabilities behind the convective line across the Mid Mississippi Valley, as convective overturning has reduced surface-based buoyancy. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with scattered to numerous wind/hail producing thunderstorms developing ahead of the cold front, from New England to the lower Mississippi Valley. Please refer to MCDs 0852-0854 for more information. Likewise, damaging gusts/occasionally large hail may still accompany ongoing storms across the southeast CONUS (more details available via MCDs 0855-0856).
..Squitieri.. 05/21/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022/
Southern Plains to Northeast
A complex and active convective day is anticipated for much of the central and eastern US. Several lines/clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to intensify by mid-afternoon along a cold front and associated outflow boundaries from southeast Ontario into the Great Lakes region, OH Valley, middle MS Valley and southern Plains. The air mass ahead of the boundaries is quite moist with areas of strong daytime heating already occurring. While large scale forcing mechanisms are generally weak along this broad corridor, numerous thunderstorms are expected. Strong instability combined with sufficient flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and some hail along the entire frontal zone. Most areas will see multicell storm clusters and lines. However, sufficient low and deep layer shear will likely result in a few supercells moving into northern New England later today with a slightly higher risk of a tornado or two. Please reference recent MCDs #848 and #849 for further short-term details.
Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas
There is also a broad area of potential for at least isolated strong to severe storms over much of the southern and southeastern US today. Wind fields aloft are relatively weak in most places. However, strong heating, rich low-level moisture, and relatively cool temperatures aloft will promote robust up/downdrafts capable of locally damaging wind gusts and some hail.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
Outlook for Sunday, May 22
Outlook Summary
Isolated severe storms with wind damage and hail will be possible across parts of the Northeast on Sunday. A marginal severe threat may also develop from the Carolina Piedmont to the Gulf Coast states.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 5%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 211725
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
### SUMMARY
Isolated severe storms with wind damage and hail will be possible across parts of the Northeast on Sunday. A marginal severe threat may also develop from the Carolina Piedmont to the Gulf Coast states.
Synopsis
A broad mid-level trough will graze by the northeast CONUS as a surface cold front, draped from New England to the Mid South, progresses southeastward. A moist low-level airmass will exist ahead of the cold front, supporting scattered thunderstorm development across the eastern U.S. Sunday afternoon. A relatively more appreciable severe threat exists across New England in the presence of stronger vertical wind shear and deep-layer ascent. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible across the Interior West during the afternoon given the passage of a mid-level trough. Scattered thunderstorm development may also occur within a warm-air advection regime across the southern Plains Sunday night.
New England into the Mid Atlantic
At least scattered thunderstorm development is expected to occur along a cold front across New England by early afternoon. Boundary layer mixing will encourage 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates, contributing to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest mid-level flow grazing the Northeast will also contribute to 30-50 kts of effective bulk shear, supporting multicellular/transient supercell development, with large hail and damaging gusts the main concerns. Some stronger low-level shear is evident across northern Maine, with modest low-level hodograph curvature and length contributing to a locally greater chance of a brief tornado. Deep-layer ascent decreases with southward extent into the Mid Atlantic. However guidance consensus depicts ample buoyancy amid isolated to scattered thunderstorm development and isolated instances of large hail/damaging gusts are possible with the strongest storms.
Carolina Piedmont to the Gulf Coast States
Tropospheric wind fields are expected to be weaker compared to points farther north. Nonetheless, adequate heating of a moist low-level airmass will boost low-level lapse rates above 7 C/km across much of the Southeast Sunday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated, and a threat of damaging gusts with wet downbursts will accompany stronger storms.
..Squitieri.. 05/21/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Monday, May 23
Outlook Summary
Isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible across parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail could also occur across parts of north and east Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 210722
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS
### SUMMARY
Isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible across parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail could also occur across parts of north and east Texas.
Texas
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern and central High Plains on Monday. At the surface, a trough is forecast to develop across central Texas. Ahead of the surface trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. In response, moderate instability is expected across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Although thunderstorm development will be possible across a large portion of the southern Plains, the strongest convection is expected along the western edge of the moderately unstable airmass. Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage during the afternoon and move eastward into the stronger instability across the Texas Hill country and north Texas.
Forecast soundings Monday afternoon, near the axis of strongest instability, have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to range from about 30 knots in north Texas to around 40 knots in the Texas Hill Country. This combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Wind damage would be the greatest of the threats if an organized line segment can develop. If cells remain more discrete, then supercell development will be possible. At this time, the models show the best severe-weather parameters over southwest and central Texas, where there could be a slightly greater potential for wind damage and isolated large hail than further to the north. If tomorrow's model runs continue to show more potential for severe storms in central and southwest Texas on Monday, then a slight could be added in an upcoming outlook.
..Broyles.. 05/21/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Tuesday, May 24
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be located across parts of central and east Texas, where moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm formation will be possible over a large part of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. An MCS may organize along the northern edge of the stronger instability and pose a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. At this time, there is a large spread in the model solutions concerning where this MCS could potentially form. This combined with the fact that mesoscale influences will be a strong contributor to any severe threat, makes for a lot of uncertainty. There will likely be need for a severe threat area once the model solutions key in on a specific area with greater potential.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the southern Plains. A moist and unstable airmass should be in place from the Texas Coastal Plains eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Moisture advection will also take place across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A potential for strong thunderstorm development will be possible along the northern edge of the stronger instability, somewhere from east Texas eastward into lower Mississippi Valley. Other strong thunderstorms could form ahead of a cold front from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Mesoscale influences and the distribution of instability will again have a strong impact any severe threat that develops Wednesday afternoon.
The upper-level trough is forecast to move into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as a moist airmass remains to the east of the system. Thunderstorm development will be possible over a large area from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated strong thunderstorms will again be possible along this corridor in areas that heat up the most, and in areas where mesoscale factors are favorable.
From Tuesday to Thursday, predictability is too low to add a threat area, due to the uncertainties previously mentioned.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the East Coast. Thunderstorms will again be possible each day across a broad area ahead of the system. Although strong thunderstorms will be possible in some areas of the eastern U.S. each afternoon and evening, the range in the forecast is too far out to make any solid conclusions concerning specific threat areas.
..Broyles.. 05/21/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, May 25
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be located across parts of central and east Texas, where moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm formation will be possible over a large part of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. An MCS may organize along the northern edge of the stronger instability and pose a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. At this time, there is a large spread in the model solutions concerning where this MCS could potentially form. This combined with the fact that mesoscale influences will be a strong contributor to any severe threat, makes for a lot of uncertainty. There will likely be need for a severe threat area once the model solutions key in on a specific area with greater potential.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the southern Plains. A moist and unstable airmass should be in place from the Texas Coastal Plains eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Moisture advection will also take place across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A potential for strong thunderstorm development will be possible along the northern edge of the stronger instability, somewhere from east Texas eastward into lower Mississippi Valley. Other strong thunderstorms could form ahead of a cold front from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Mesoscale influences and the distribution of instability will again have a strong impact any severe threat that develops Wednesday afternoon.
The upper-level trough is forecast to move into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as a moist airmass remains to the east of the system. Thunderstorm development will be possible over a large area from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated strong thunderstorms will again be possible along this corridor in areas that heat up the most, and in areas where mesoscale factors are favorable.
From Tuesday to Thursday, predictability is too low to add a threat area, due to the uncertainties previously mentioned.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the East Coast. Thunderstorms will again be possible each day across a broad area ahead of the system. Although strong thunderstorms will be possible in some areas of the eastern U.S. each afternoon and evening, the range in the forecast is too far out to make any solid conclusions concerning specific threat areas.
..Broyles.. 05/21/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, May 26
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be located across parts of central and east Texas, where moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm formation will be possible over a large part of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. An MCS may organize along the northern edge of the stronger instability and pose a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. At this time, there is a large spread in the model solutions concerning where this MCS could potentially form. This combined with the fact that mesoscale influences will be a strong contributor to any severe threat, makes for a lot of uncertainty. There will likely be need for a severe threat area once the model solutions key in on a specific area with greater potential.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the southern Plains. A moist and unstable airmass should be in place from the Texas Coastal Plains eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Moisture advection will also take place across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A potential for strong thunderstorm development will be possible along the northern edge of the stronger instability, somewhere from east Texas eastward into lower Mississippi Valley. Other strong thunderstorms could form ahead of a cold front from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Mesoscale influences and the distribution of instability will again have a strong impact any severe threat that develops Wednesday afternoon.
The upper-level trough is forecast to move into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as a moist airmass remains to the east of the system. Thunderstorm development will be possible over a large area from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated strong thunderstorms will again be possible along this corridor in areas that heat up the most, and in areas where mesoscale factors are favorable.
From Tuesday to Thursday, predictability is too low to add a threat area, due to the uncertainties previously mentioned.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the East Coast. Thunderstorms will again be possible each day across a broad area ahead of the system. Although strong thunderstorms will be possible in some areas of the eastern U.S. each afternoon and evening, the range in the forecast is too far out to make any solid conclusions concerning specific threat areas.
..Broyles.. 05/21/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, May 27
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be located across parts of central and east Texas, where moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm formation will be possible over a large part of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. An MCS may organize along the northern edge of the stronger instability and pose a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. At this time, there is a large spread in the model solutions concerning where this MCS could potentially form. This combined with the fact that mesoscale influences will be a strong contributor to any severe threat, makes for a lot of uncertainty. There will likely be need for a severe threat area once the model solutions key in on a specific area with greater potential.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the southern Plains. A moist and unstable airmass should be in place from the Texas Coastal Plains eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Moisture advection will also take place across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A potential for strong thunderstorm development will be possible along the northern edge of the stronger instability, somewhere from east Texas eastward into lower Mississippi Valley. Other strong thunderstorms could form ahead of a cold front from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Mesoscale influences and the distribution of instability will again have a strong impact any severe threat that develops Wednesday afternoon.
The upper-level trough is forecast to move into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as a moist airmass remains to the east of the system. Thunderstorm development will be possible over a large area from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated strong thunderstorms will again be possible along this corridor in areas that heat up the most, and in areas where mesoscale factors are favorable.
From Tuesday to Thursday, predictability is too low to add a threat area, due to the uncertainties previously mentioned.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the East Coast. Thunderstorms will again be possible each day across a broad area ahead of the system. Although strong thunderstorms will be possible in some areas of the eastern U.S. each afternoon and evening, the range in the forecast is too far out to make any solid conclusions concerning specific threat areas.
..Broyles.. 05/21/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, May 28
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
DISCUSSION
Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be located across parts of central and east Texas, where moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm formation will be possible over a large part of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. An MCS may organize along the northern edge of the stronger instability and pose a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. At this time, there is a large spread in the model solutions concerning where this MCS could potentially form. This combined with the fact that mesoscale influences will be a strong contributor to any severe threat, makes for a lot of uncertainty. There will likely be need for a severe threat area once the model solutions key in on a specific area with greater potential.
On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the southern Plains. A moist and unstable airmass should be in place from the Texas Coastal Plains eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Moisture advection will also take place across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A potential for strong thunderstorm development will be possible along the northern edge of the stronger instability, somewhere from east Texas eastward into lower Mississippi Valley. Other strong thunderstorms could form ahead of a cold front from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Mesoscale influences and the distribution of instability will again have a strong impact any severe threat that develops Wednesday afternoon.
The upper-level trough is forecast to move into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as a moist airmass remains to the east of the system. Thunderstorm development will be possible over a large area from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated strong thunderstorms will again be possible along this corridor in areas that heat up the most, and in areas where mesoscale factors are favorable.
From Tuesday to Thursday, predictability is too low to add a threat area, due to the uncertainties previously mentioned.
Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8
On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the East Coast. Thunderstorms will again be possible each day across a broad area ahead of the system. Although strong thunderstorms will be possible in some areas of the eastern U.S. each afternoon and evening, the range in the forecast is too far out to make any solid conclusions concerning specific threat areas.
..Broyles.. 05/21/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Saturday, May 21
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Sunday, May 22
- TORNADO: 5%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Monday, May 23
- ANY SEVERE: 5%
- Tuesday, May 24
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Wednesday, May 25
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Thursday, May 26
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Friday, May 27
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Saturday, May 28
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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