Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, September 26
Monday, September 27
Tuesday, September 28
Wednesday, September 29
Thursday, September 30
Friday, October 1
Saturday, October 2
Sunday, October 3

Outlook for Sunday, September 26

Outlook Summary

A few strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the expected threats.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260533

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO

### SUMMARY

A few strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the expected threats.

Southern AZ/Southwestern NM

An upper low over the northern Baja Peninsula is beginning to eject slowly northeast toward the southern AZ border. This feature will advance into central AZ by 27/00z as 35kt 500mb speed max translates across northwestern Mexico into southwestern NM. Mid-level temperatures will cool during the day as the upper low tracks north of the international border. While moisture is not particularly high across this region, large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across southern AZ/southwestern NM ahead of a short-wave trough as lower-elevation temperatures warm into the lower-mid 80s. Forecast soundings suggest these readings will be more than adequate for surface-based convection, which may develop by 19z. Given PW values in excess of one inch, instability should be more than adequate for robust updrafts that could generate locally severe wind gusts or perhaps marginally severe hail, primarily during the afternoon hours.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/26/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Monday, September 27

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260429

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

Synopsis

A weak upper low will meander eastward across AZ/NM on Monday, becoming an open wave with time as it merges with a shortwave trough digging southeast across the Pacific Northwest late in the period. Modest moisture will limit instability across the Four Corners vicinity and vertical shear also will remain weak, and severe thunderstorm potential will be low.

Southerly low level flow beneath the Plains upper ridge will result in northward transport of Gulf moisture across the south-central U.S. Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and overnight in this warm advection regime. However, weak large-scale forcing and poor vertical shear will limit severe potential.

An upper shortwave trough will track across the lower Great Lakes vicinity Monday evening/overnight while a surface cold front sags southward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Modest boundary-layer moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak instability, but capping will limit convection for much of the period. Isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible mainly after 00z, but severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 09/26/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 28

Outlook Summary

Severe storms are not forecast for Tuesday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 260639

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe storms are not forecast for Tuesday.

Mid-Atlantic

The eastern upper trough will progress offshore the Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening. A surface cold front will sag southward across the Mid-Atlantic during the day. Modest boundary-layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of the boundary with effective shear magnitudes forecast around 25 kt. This could support a few strong storms around the Chesapeake Bay vicinity. However, timing of the front and degree of destabilization remain too uncertain to include severe probabilities at this time.

Southern Plains

A broad upper trough will emerge from the southern High Plains to the Intermountain region on Tuesday. Southerly low level flow will transport 60s surface dewpoints northward across much of OK/TX/KS. While this will aid in pockets of weak to moderate destabilization across the region, large-scale forcing will remain nebulous and vertical shear modest. Warm advection will likely lead to areas of showers and thunderstorms, but severe potential is uncertain. Any stronger convection will likely be tied to areas where stronger heating can occur, but overall storm mode/organization does not appear favorable, precluding severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 09/26/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 29

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260732 SPC AC 260732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. Medium-range guidance continues to indicate a persistent upper trough and/or cut-off low over the eastern U.S. Associated surface high pressure will keep deeper moisture confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and portions of the southern Plains. Meanwhile, the upper trough over the West is forecast to weaken and lift northeast into Canada by Day 5/Thu. A somewhat nondescript/weak-flow upper-level pattern is then forecast west of the Rockies heading into next weekend, with an stronger shortwave troughs remaining north of the international border. This pattern does not appear favorable for any organized severe potential across the CONUS.

..Leitman.. 09/26/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, September 30

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260732 SPC AC 260732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. Medium-range guidance continues to indicate a persistent upper trough and/or cut-off low over the eastern U.S. Associated surface high pressure will keep deeper moisture confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and portions of the southern Plains. Meanwhile, the upper trough over the West is forecast to weaken and lift northeast into Canada by Day 5/Thu. A somewhat nondescript/weak-flow upper-level pattern is then forecast west of the Rockies heading into next weekend, with an stronger shortwave troughs remaining north of the international border. This pattern does not appear favorable for any organized severe potential across the CONUS.

..Leitman.. 09/26/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, October 1

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260732 SPC AC 260732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. Medium-range guidance continues to indicate a persistent upper trough and/or cut-off low over the eastern U.S. Associated surface high pressure will keep deeper moisture confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and portions of the southern Plains. Meanwhile, the upper trough over the West is forecast to weaken and lift northeast into Canada by Day 5/Thu. A somewhat nondescript/weak-flow upper-level pattern is then forecast west of the Rockies heading into next weekend, with an stronger shortwave troughs remaining north of the international border. This pattern does not appear favorable for any organized severe potential across the CONUS.

..Leitman.. 09/26/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, October 2

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260732 SPC AC 260732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. Medium-range guidance continues to indicate a persistent upper trough and/or cut-off low over the eastern U.S. Associated surface high pressure will keep deeper moisture confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and portions of the southern Plains. Meanwhile, the upper trough over the West is forecast to weaken and lift northeast into Canada by Day 5/Thu. A somewhat nondescript/weak-flow upper-level pattern is then forecast west of the Rockies heading into next weekend, with an stronger shortwave troughs remaining north of the international border. This pattern does not appear favorable for any organized severe potential across the CONUS.

..Leitman.. 09/26/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, October 3

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260732 SPC AC 260732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. Medium-range guidance continues to indicate a persistent upper trough and/or cut-off low over the eastern U.S. Associated surface high pressure will keep deeper moisture confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and portions of the southern Plains. Meanwhile, the upper trough over the West is forecast to weaken and lift northeast into Canada by Day 5/Thu. A somewhat nondescript/weak-flow upper-level pattern is then forecast west of the Rockies heading into next weekend, with an stronger shortwave troughs remaining north of the international border. This pattern does not appear favorable for any organized severe potential across the CONUS.

..Leitman.. 09/26/2021

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Sunday, September 26
TORNADO: low
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Monday, September 27
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Tuesday, September 28
ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, September 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, September 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 1
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 2
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, October 3
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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