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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Friday, January 27
Saturday, January 28
Sunday, January 29
Monday, January 30
Tuesday, January 31
Wednesday, February 1
Thursday, February 2
Friday, February 3

Outlook for Friday, January 27

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271948

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States.

20z Update

Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight, and no changes are necessary with the 20z update.

..Leitman.. 01/27/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 0959 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023/

Synopsis

Broad cyclonic flow aloft will encompass the CONUS, with embedded shortwave troughs moving eastward over the Great Lakes and south-southeastward over the northern Rockies/Great Basin. Low-level moisture is limited in the wake of a prior frontal passage (the front has stalled across the FL Straits), and this will preclude thunderstorms through Saturday morning.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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Outlook for Saturday, January 28

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Saturday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271650

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Saturday.

Synopsis

Broad, upper-level troughing will persist across the CONUS on Saturday. A mid/upper shortwave impulse embedded in larger-scale flow over the Rockies early in the day will eject eastward across the Plains and into the Midwest through early Sunday. As this occurs, the southwesterly subtropical jet over Mexico will merge with strong westerly flow associated with the ejecting shortwave trough over the southern Plains and mid/lower MS Valley Saturday evening/overnight. At the surface, low pressure will develop east and northeast along a frontal zone from the southern High Plains into the upper Great Lakes vicinity. This will allow for southerly low-level flow and northward transport of Gulf moisture across the south-central U.S. This will aid in development of weak instability across east TX toward AR into western MS/TN overnight. Warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping for much of the period. However, midlevel moistening along with increasing large-scale ascent will support isolated thunderstorm development after 03z, though severe thunderstorms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/27/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Sunday, January 29

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday across parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas into Louisiana.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 270824

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST/EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday across parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas into Louisiana.

Upper Texas Coast/East Texas into Louisiana

A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough should advance northeastward from Mexico across TX and the lower MS Valley on Sunday. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northward ahead of a cold front that should advance southeastward across these regions through the period. Weak instability should develop across the warm sector with muted diurnal heating, with some steepening of mid-level lapse rates also occurring through the day. Strong effective bulk shear associated with a southwesterly mid-level jet should support updraft organization.

Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning across parts of east TX into the ArkLaTex in a low-level warm advection regime. The southern extent of this activity, and possible additional development along/ahead of the cold front along the upper TX Coast, will probably transition to surface based by Sunday afternoon as weak destabilization occurs. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for supercells. But, some uncertainty regarding convective mode remains, as thunderstorms may grow upscale into a line along the front. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA through Sunday evening. Additional convection may spread from the Gulf across parts of southern/coastal LA as a modest low-level jet shifts eastward through the day. Although low-level shear is forecast to be fairly modest, a tornado or two also appear possible.

The eastern extent of appreciable severe potential will be determined by how far low-level moisture will be able to advance inland in tandem with a marine warm front along the central Gulf Coast. Most guidance suggests that this front will either remain just offshore, or perhaps brush the immediate coastal areas of MS/AL and the FL Panhandle Sunday evening/night. Given this signal and uncertainty regarding surface-based convective potential over land, have opted to not include these areas in the Marginal Risk for now.

..Gleason.. 01/27/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Monday, January 30

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270948 SPC AC 270948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Organized severe thunderstorm potential should be muted through the early to middle portion of next week, as appreciable low-level moisture and related boundary-layer instability remain generally confined to the coastal Gulf waters. An upper trough/low should pivot from the West Coast across northern Mexico and the Southwest, eventually reaching the southern Plains vicinity around Day 6/Wednesday. Regardless, a strong surface high intrusion across much of the Plains and eastern states is forecast to greatly limit the inland return of low-level moisture across the TX Coast.

There are some indications that sufficient moisture return to support surface-based thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast by Day 7/Thursday into Day 8/Friday. It appears that enough instability may be present Thursday over this region to support some threat for severe thunderstorms. However, typical model uncertainties exist at this extended time frame regarding the progression of the upper trough, placement of the related surface low, and degree of instability forecast. This suggests predictability remains too low to include any 15% severe areas for Thursday and Friday.

..Gleason.. 01/27/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Tuesday, January 31

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270948 SPC AC 270948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Organized severe thunderstorm potential should be muted through the early to middle portion of next week, as appreciable low-level moisture and related boundary-layer instability remain generally confined to the coastal Gulf waters. An upper trough/low should pivot from the West Coast across northern Mexico and the Southwest, eventually reaching the southern Plains vicinity around Day 6/Wednesday. Regardless, a strong surface high intrusion across much of the Plains and eastern states is forecast to greatly limit the inland return of low-level moisture across the TX Coast.

There are some indications that sufficient moisture return to support surface-based thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast by Day 7/Thursday into Day 8/Friday. It appears that enough instability may be present Thursday over this region to support some threat for severe thunderstorms. However, typical model uncertainties exist at this extended time frame regarding the progression of the upper trough, placement of the related surface low, and degree of instability forecast. This suggests predictability remains too low to include any 15% severe areas for Thursday and Friday.

..Gleason.. 01/27/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, February 1

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270948 SPC AC 270948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Organized severe thunderstorm potential should be muted through the early to middle portion of next week, as appreciable low-level moisture and related boundary-layer instability remain generally confined to the coastal Gulf waters. An upper trough/low should pivot from the West Coast across northern Mexico and the Southwest, eventually reaching the southern Plains vicinity around Day 6/Wednesday. Regardless, a strong surface high intrusion across much of the Plains and eastern states is forecast to greatly limit the inland return of low-level moisture across the TX Coast.

There are some indications that sufficient moisture return to support surface-based thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast by Day 7/Thursday into Day 8/Friday. It appears that enough instability may be present Thursday over this region to support some threat for severe thunderstorms. However, typical model uncertainties exist at this extended time frame regarding the progression of the upper trough, placement of the related surface low, and degree of instability forecast. This suggests predictability remains too low to include any 15% severe areas for Thursday and Friday.

..Gleason.. 01/27/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, February 2

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270948 SPC AC 270948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Organized severe thunderstorm potential should be muted through the early to middle portion of next week, as appreciable low-level moisture and related boundary-layer instability remain generally confined to the coastal Gulf waters. An upper trough/low should pivot from the West Coast across northern Mexico and the Southwest, eventually reaching the southern Plains vicinity around Day 6/Wednesday. Regardless, a strong surface high intrusion across much of the Plains and eastern states is forecast to greatly limit the inland return of low-level moisture across the TX Coast.

There are some indications that sufficient moisture return to support surface-based thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast by Day 7/Thursday into Day 8/Friday. It appears that enough instability may be present Thursday over this region to support some threat for severe thunderstorms. However, typical model uncertainties exist at this extended time frame regarding the progression of the upper trough, placement of the related surface low, and degree of instability forecast. This suggests predictability remains too low to include any 15% severe areas for Thursday and Friday.

..Gleason.. 01/27/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, February 3

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270948 SPC AC 270948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

Organized severe thunderstorm potential should be muted through the early to middle portion of next week, as appreciable low-level moisture and related boundary-layer instability remain generally confined to the coastal Gulf waters. An upper trough/low should pivot from the West Coast across northern Mexico and the Southwest, eventually reaching the southern Plains vicinity around Day 6/Wednesday. Regardless, a strong surface high intrusion across much of the Plains and eastern states is forecast to greatly limit the inland return of low-level moisture across the TX Coast.

There are some indications that sufficient moisture return to support surface-based thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast by Day 7/Thursday into Day 8/Friday. It appears that enough instability may be present Thursday over this region to support some threat for severe thunderstorms. However, typical model uncertainties exist at this extended time frame regarding the progression of the upper trough, placement of the related surface low, and degree of instability forecast. This suggests predictability remains too low to include any 15% severe areas for Thursday and Friday.

..Gleason.. 01/27/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Friday, January 27
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, January 28
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, January 29
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, January 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, January 31
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, February 1
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, February 2
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, February 3
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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