Severe Weather Outlook
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Friday, April 3
Outlook Summary
Scattered large hail, severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible through this evening across south Texas.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 031626
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH TX
### SUMMARY
Scattered large hail, severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible through this evening across south Texas.
South TX
Initial thunderstorm development is underway just west of Del Rio near the Coahuila border as persistent but light easterly low-level winds aid in weak upslope forcing for ascent, and along the surface cold front over the Edwards Plateau. This vigorous cold front will plow south into the Brush Country through the afternoon and eventually into Deep South TX tonight.
Rich surface dew points from about 69-73 F in conjunction with pockets of modest boundary-layer heating will support a broad plume of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE amid steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km. While light winds below 700 mb will limit effective SRH, substantial veering of the wind profile with height along with pronounced speed shear through the mid/upper-levels will foster an elongated hodograph favorable for splitting supercells. This setup should support potential for a couple strongly rotating supercells in the mid-levels that may yield very large hail, resulting in a significant area delineation. The small SRH, weak MLCIN, and progressive/anafrontal nature of the front suggest that a messy mode with a mix of clusters and embedded HP supercells may ultimately evolve southeast this afternoon and evening. The best chance for large hail, severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will exist with any supercell that can be sustained just ahead of the front, mainly into Deep South TX this evening.
..Grams/Karstens.. 04/03/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Saturday, April 4
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the Lower 48 states on Saturday.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado low
wind low
hail low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 030425
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2020
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the Lower 48 states on Saturday.
TX
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of the Rio Grande Valley and South TX, as a cold front pushes south of the border by midday. Atop a relatively cool boundary layer, weak elevated instability (MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) is forecast as a zonal belt of strong mid to high-level westerlies is maintained. A 500mb speed max is progged to move from the Gulf of California on Saturday morning to the Edwards Plateau/Rio Grande Valley during the evening. Coinciding with the approach of this disturbance, isolated to widely scattered convective coverage could continue across southern and central TX. Although a risk for small hail could accompany the stronger cores, it appears the overall risk for a stronger storm will remain limited during the day 2 period.
..Smith.. 04/03/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Outlook for Sunday, April 5
Outlook Summary
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Sunday across the Lower 48 states.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 030700
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Sunday across the Lower 48 states.
Synopsis
A mid-level low over the eastern Pacific initially located west of the OR coast Sunday morning, will move slowly south reaching the northern CA coast by early Monday. Very cold temperatures aloft will result in pockets of weak buoyancy primarily near the coast. During the day, some heating inland over the central valley may yield weak instability and low-topped convection.
Farther east, a mid-level ridge will extend across much of the Great Plains and MS Valley. Widely spaced, general thunderstorms are forecast. Low-level moisture/instability will likely remain limited due to the lack of robust moisture infiltrating the southern U.S., because of an old front of continental origin, still located over the Gulf of Mexico.
..Smith.. 04/03/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Monday, April 6
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030817 SPC AC 030817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
A seemingly slow-to-evolve upper-air pattern is forecast during the extended period. A mid-level low will move very little during the early part of the period and likely remain over CA. To the east, a mid-level ridge over the southern Great Plains and MS Valley is forecast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday-Wednesday across portions of this broader area. Mesoscale details concerning timing/placement of storms, some of which may be strong to severe, are too uncertain at this time. By late in the extended period, it appears the cut-off mid-level low will gradually move east into the Desert Southwest/southern Rockies. A risk for severe will likely materialize ahead of this feature over the southern Great Plains, but confidence is low regarding timing and possible placement of a severe area.
..Smith.. 04/03/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 7
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030817 SPC AC 030817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
A seemingly slow-to-evolve upper-air pattern is forecast during the extended period. A mid-level low will move very little during the early part of the period and likely remain over CA. To the east, a mid-level ridge over the southern Great Plains and MS Valley is forecast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday-Wednesday across portions of this broader area. Mesoscale details concerning timing/placement of storms, some of which may be strong to severe, are too uncertain at this time. By late in the extended period, it appears the cut-off mid-level low will gradually move east into the Desert Southwest/southern Rockies. A risk for severe will likely materialize ahead of this feature over the southern Great Plains, but confidence is low regarding timing and possible placement of a severe area.
..Smith.. 04/03/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Wednesday, April 8
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030817 SPC AC 030817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
A seemingly slow-to-evolve upper-air pattern is forecast during the extended period. A mid-level low will move very little during the early part of the period and likely remain over CA. To the east, a mid-level ridge over the southern Great Plains and MS Valley is forecast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday-Wednesday across portions of this broader area. Mesoscale details concerning timing/placement of storms, some of which may be strong to severe, are too uncertain at this time. By late in the extended period, it appears the cut-off mid-level low will gradually move east into the Desert Southwest/southern Rockies. A risk for severe will likely materialize ahead of this feature over the southern Great Plains, but confidence is low regarding timing and possible placement of a severe area.
..Smith.. 04/03/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Thursday, April 9
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030817 SPC AC 030817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
A seemingly slow-to-evolve upper-air pattern is forecast during the extended period. A mid-level low will move very little during the early part of the period and likely remain over CA. To the east, a mid-level ridge over the southern Great Plains and MS Valley is forecast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday-Wednesday across portions of this broader area. Mesoscale details concerning timing/placement of storms, some of which may be strong to severe, are too uncertain at this time. By late in the extended period, it appears the cut-off mid-level low will gradually move east into the Desert Southwest/southern Rockies. A risk for severe will likely materialize ahead of this feature over the southern Great Plains, but confidence is low regarding timing and possible placement of a severe area.
..Smith.. 04/03/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Friday, April 10
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030817 SPC AC 030817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
DISCUSSION
A seemingly slow-to-evolve upper-air pattern is forecast during the extended period. A mid-level low will move very little during the early part of the period and likely remain over CA. To the east, a mid-level ridge over the southern Great Plains and MS Valley is forecast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday-Wednesday across portions of this broader area. Mesoscale details concerning timing/placement of storms, some of which may be strong to severe, are too uncertain at this time. By late in the extended period, it appears the cut-off mid-level low will gradually move east into the Desert Southwest/southern Rockies. A risk for severe will likely materialize ahead of this feature over the southern Great Plains, but confidence is low regarding timing and possible placement of a severe area.
..Smith.. 04/03/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Friday, April 3
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Saturday, April 4
- TORNADO: low
- HAIL: low
- WIND: low
- Sunday, April 5
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Monday, April 6
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Tuesday, April 7
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Wednesday, April 8
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Thursday, April 9
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Friday, April 10
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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