Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook for Saturday, May 17

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 171248

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

### THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast.

Southern Plains Region

Water vapor imagery depicts a pronounced southern stream upper-level trough over the Baja Peninsula this morning, with evidence of a lead impulse approaching southwest TX. This leading impulse will contribute to ascent in the vicinity of a sharpening dryline across Western North Texas/Oklahoma by early afternoon. To the east of the dryline, extreme instability (MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg) is expected to develop given the moist low-level air mass and relatively cool mid-level thermal profiles. With negligible CINH by early/mid afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline and move east/northeast into North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Supercells will be the dominant mode initially, with a risk for very large hail (in excess of 3.5 inches), and damaging gusts. Although low-level shear is not especially strong, some tornado risk will exist given the magnitude of instability and potential for storm-scale interactions. Eventual upscale growth into a severe MCS is expected as storms continue to move across North TX/southern OK this evening. Severe wind probabilities have been increased across the Enhanced Risk area for the expectation of a more concentrated corridor of damaging wind potential.

Across central/northwest OK, a narrowing plume of instability will be present east of the dryline and south of an east-west oriented frontal boundary. Within this moist sector, strong to extreme instability and around 50 kts of deep-layer shear will support at least isolated supercell storm development this afternoon over central OK. Very large hail (3 inches or greater) will be possible, in addition to damaging gusts. Tornado risk will be dependent on storm interactions. Thunderstorm development over northwest OK is more uncertain, however should a storm develop a supercell mode will be favored with all hazards possible.

Northeast

Strong mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. Large-scale ascent will increase with as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely, with severe hail and winds as the primary risks. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out with any stronger and semi-discrete supercell. Please refer to Mesoscale Discussion 836 for additional details on short-term expectations.

Northern Utah Vicinity

A Marginal Risk has been introduced across northern UT and vicinity given expected higher concentration of storms within a deeply-mixed boundary layer. Strong/severe gusts will be the primary severe risk.

Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast

Thunderstorms continue from central MS into the western Carolinas at 13z, with occasional pulses of strong/severe cells. Isolated stronger storms will remain possible as diurnal heating/destabilization takes place in the presence of ample shear for organized storms. However, with the line of convection oriented generally parallel to the shear vector, any severe risk should be isolated. Strong gusts will be the primary hazard.

..Bunting/Marsh.. 05/17/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Sunday, May 18

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170602

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains.

Synopsis

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains.

Kansas and northern Oklahoma

A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma.

Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri.

Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front.

Oklahoma/Texas

A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes.

Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity

By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region.

Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast

Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA.

..Bentley.. 05/17/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Monday, May 19

Outlook Summary

Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170739

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS…MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA…EASTERN KANSAS…FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS…AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI

### SUMMARY

Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday.

Synopsis

A mid-level trough will move over the central/southern Plains on Monday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move slowly east across Kansas and eventually into Missouri. A sharp dryline will extend from this surface low southward along the I-35 corridor into north-central Texas. A warm front will extend from this surface low southeastward into portions of the lower Ohio Valley and into the Carolinas Monday morning. This front will move slowly north through the day.

Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest

Strong to very strong instability will develop across the Plains and into the Ozarks on Monday as temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s while mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. As strengthening mid-level flow overspreads the warm sector, a favorable environment for intense supercells will develop with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 50+ knots of shear across a broad region. Large to very large hail will be likely within supercells across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into northern Texas. The tornado threat remains potent but more uncertain. The weakening nature of the surface low and a strengthening low-level jet during the evening when mode remains less clear are the primary uncertainties at this time. Eventually expect storms to congeal into one or more MCSs with an increasing severe wind threat.

Additional storms are likely late Monday evening as a cold front overtakes the dryline across Kansas and eventually into Oklahoma. Storm intensity during this period remains unclear as it will depend greatly on remaining instability in the wake of earlier convection. Regardless, if earlier convection does not materialize as expected, more robust storms are likely along the cold front. Therefore, between the likely dryline storms during the afternoon and potential for storms along the cold front Monday evening, numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across Kansas and Oklahoma with that threat continuing eastward into parts of Missouri and Arkansas Monday evening.

..Bentley.. 05/17/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 20

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170840 SPC AC 170840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tuesday

As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat.

Day 5/Wednesday

A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time.

Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues.

..Bentley.. 05/17/2025

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Outlook for Wednesday, May 21

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170840 SPC AC 170840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tuesday

As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat.

Day 5/Wednesday

A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time.

Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues.

..Bentley.. 05/17/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, May 22

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Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170840 SPC AC 170840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tuesday

As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat.

Day 5/Wednesday

A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time.

Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues.

..Bentley.. 05/17/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, May 23

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170840 SPC AC 170840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tuesday

As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat.

Day 5/Wednesday

A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time.

Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues.

..Bentley.. 05/17/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, May 24

Outlook Images

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170840 SPC AC 170840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tuesday

As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat.

Day 5/Wednesday

A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time.

Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues.

..Bentley.. 05/17/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, May 17

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 30%

Sunday, May 18

TORNADO: 10%

HAIL: 30%

WIND: 15%

Monday, May 19

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Tuesday, May 20

ANY SEVERE: 30%

Wednesday, May 21

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Thursday, May 22

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, May 23

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Saturday, May 24

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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