Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Saturday, November 16
Sunday, November 17
Monday, November 18
Tuesday, November 19
Wednesday, November 20
Thursday, November 21
Friday, November 22
Saturday, November 23

Outlook for Saturday, November 16

Outlook Summary

The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170039

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight.

01Z Outlook Update

A cluster of thunderstorms approaching North Carolina coastal areas appears supported by an area of upper forcing for ascent, which has been spreading northeastward, east of coastal areas, to the north of the center of the mid-level cyclone. It appears that this activity could spread into the North Carolina Outer and Inner Banks vicinity, where the surface frontal zone remains closest to coastal areas. Elevated instability to the immediate cool/northwest side of the frontal zone is generally weak due to poor mid-level lapse rates, and it is not clear that thermodynamic profiles evident in the 17/00Z raob from Morehead City NC will support lightning. It appears that the risk for lightning becomes increasingly negligible with inland extent from immediate coastal areas.

..Kerr.. 11/17/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Sunday, November 17

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms are unlikely over the Lower 48 on Sunday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 161658

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms are unlikely over the Lower 48 on Sunday.

Synopsis

Quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the contiguous U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night. A mid-level shortwave trough initially over the Great Plains will amplify and move into the southern Appalachians/Southeast by early Monday. Offshore flow over the Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S. will promote dry/stable conditions hostile to thunderstorm development.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None

..Smith.. 11/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

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Outlook for Monday, November 18

Outlook Summary

A few weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of northern and western Oregon on Monday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 160723

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

A few weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of northern and western Oregon on Monday.

Discussion

A surface low will move rapidly north across New Brunswick, coincident with a negative-tilt shortwave trough. Any elevated instability associated with wrap-around moisture looks to be minimal, and thunderstorms are not expected with this system.

To the west, a northwesterly flow regime will maintain dry conditions over the Plains, with high pressure reinforcing offshore flow over the Gulf of Mexico.

Farther west, a shortwave trough is also forecast to affect the Pacific Northwest aiding lift with cooling aloft. Minimal instability may develop along the Oregon coast, and may spread eastward along the WA/OR border with sporadic thunder possible. Severe weather is unlikely given very weak/elevated instability.

..Jewell.. 11/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, November 19

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160957 SPC AC 160957

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential will not exist from Tue/D4 through Fri/D7 across the CONUS, as multiple shortwave troughs moving from Great Lakes into the Northeast will maintain a dry surface pattern over the central and eastern states, with little if any instability.

While predictability is low, deterministic ECMWF output suggests a low-latitude shortwave trough may move eastward across TX, with a warm front along the TX, LA, and MS coasts late Sat/D8 night. If this scenario verifies, severe potential may materialize as instability returns to the area, beneath strong winds aloft with the upper trough. However, model spread is high for this time frame.

..Jewell.. 11/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Wednesday, November 20

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160957 SPC AC 160957

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential will not exist from Tue/D4 through Fri/D7 across the CONUS, as multiple shortwave troughs moving from Great Lakes into the Northeast will maintain a dry surface pattern over the central and eastern states, with little if any instability.

While predictability is low, deterministic ECMWF output suggests a low-latitude shortwave trough may move eastward across TX, with a warm front along the TX, LA, and MS coasts late Sat/D8 night. If this scenario verifies, severe potential may materialize as instability returns to the area, beneath strong winds aloft with the upper trough. However, model spread is high for this time frame.

..Jewell.. 11/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, November 21

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160957 SPC AC 160957

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential will not exist from Tue/D4 through Fri/D7 across the CONUS, as multiple shortwave troughs moving from Great Lakes into the Northeast will maintain a dry surface pattern over the central and eastern states, with little if any instability.

While predictability is low, deterministic ECMWF output suggests a low-latitude shortwave trough may move eastward across TX, with a warm front along the TX, LA, and MS coasts late Sat/D8 night. If this scenario verifies, severe potential may materialize as instability returns to the area, beneath strong winds aloft with the upper trough. However, model spread is high for this time frame.

..Jewell.. 11/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, November 22

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160957 SPC AC 160957

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential will not exist from Tue/D4 through Fri/D7 across the CONUS, as multiple shortwave troughs moving from Great Lakes into the Northeast will maintain a dry surface pattern over the central and eastern states, with little if any instability.

While predictability is low, deterministic ECMWF output suggests a low-latitude shortwave trough may move eastward across TX, with a warm front along the TX, LA, and MS coasts late Sat/D8 night. If this scenario verifies, severe potential may materialize as instability returns to the area, beneath strong winds aloft with the upper trough. However, model spread is high for this time frame.

..Jewell.. 11/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, November 23

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160957 SPC AC 160957

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential will not exist from Tue/D4 through Fri/D7 across the CONUS, as multiple shortwave troughs moving from Great Lakes into the Northeast will maintain a dry surface pattern over the central and eastern states, with little if any instability.

While predictability is low, deterministic ECMWF output suggests a low-latitude shortwave trough may move eastward across TX, with a warm front along the TX, LA, and MS coasts late Sat/D8 night. If this scenario verifies, severe potential may materialize as instability returns to the area, beneath strong winds aloft with the upper trough. However, model spread is high for this time frame.

..Jewell.. 11/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Saturday, November 16
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, November 17
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, November 18
ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, November 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, November 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, November 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, November 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, November 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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