Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, March 21

Wednesday, March 22

Thursday, March 23

Friday, March 24

Saturday, March 25

Sunday, March 26

Monday, March 27

Outlook for Tuesday, March 21

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210600

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

Discussion

While quasi-zonal flow aloft prevails across the central and eastern U.S. today, an eastern-Pacific upper low is forecast to progress eastward, and eventually inland trough the second half of the period. The low will reach a position over the Nevada vicinity by 22/12, while broader cyclonic flow expands to encompass much of the Intermountain West.

As this upper cyclone – and associated surface low/frontal system – move inland, cooling aloft will assist with weak destabilization, and development of showers and embedded thunderstorms across much of California and the Great Basin.

Downstream, weak perturbations will continue moving through the westerly flow field aloft. The westerlies will maintain general lee troughing over the High Plains, supporting a diurnal, southerly low-level jet cycle over the southern/central Plains. As a result, potential for elevated showers and thunderstorms – diminishing somewhat through the day and then increasing again during the evening/overnight – is expected, centered over the eastern Kansas/Missouri vicinity.

Severe weather is not anticipated across either of the two thunder areas.

..Goss/Lyons.. 03/21/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, March 22

Outlook Summary

Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail are possible from far northeast Kansas across northern Missouri and into far southeast Iowa and west-central Illinois late Wednesday evening.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210522

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS

### SUMMARY

Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail are possible from far northeast Kansas across northern Missouri and into far southeast Iowa and west-central Illinois late Wednesday evening.

Synopsis and Discussion

Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the western CONUS early Wednesday morning, with more zonal flow across central and eastern CONUS. A belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from the base of the upper trough over southern CA northeastward through the central Plains. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move quickly northeastward within this belt of southwesterly flow from southern CA through the Four Corners, central Rockies and central Plains. A strong jet streak, characterized by 100 kt flow at 500 mb, will accompany this shortwave.

At the surface, robust low-level moisture advection will already be underway early Wednesday morning. This moisture advection is expected to continue throughout the day amid lowering pressure across the central Plains and persistent southerly low-level flow. By Wednesday evening, the surface pattern will likely feature a low near the central CO/KS border, with a stationary front extending eastward from this low to another weaker low over northern MO. Low 60s dewpoints may reach as far north as the Kansas City vicinity, with mid 60s dewpoints remaining farther south across in the Arklatex vicinity.

Southerly low-level flow will strengthen across OK, KS, and MO Wednesday evening, in response to the shortwave moving through NE. This will increase warm-air advection across the frontal zone, which is expected to result in elevated thunderstorm development from northern MO into central IL late Wednesday evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong mid-level flow will support robust updrafts capable of hail. The severe threat is greatest with the initial development during the late evening, but thunderstorms will likely persist into Thursday morning eastward/northeastward into more of IN, OH, and southern Lower MI.

..Mosier.. 03/21/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, March 23

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms capable of hail, some very large, and damaging gusts are possible Thursday afternoon through Friday morning across the southern Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 210724

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS HILL COUNTRY ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms capable of hail, some very large, and damaging gusts are possible Thursday afternoon through Friday morning across the southern Plains.

Synopsis

The upper pattern early Thursday is forecast to consist of a western CONUS trough and subtropical ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Enhanced mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will persist between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into the Great Lakes region. A pair of shortwave troughs will be embedded within the belt of stronger flow, one initially near the Mid MO Valley and the other across southern AZ/northern Mexico. Both shortwaves are expected to progress northeastward, with the second shortwave moving through the southern High Plains during the afternoon/evening, reaching KS/OK by early Friday morning.

The surface pattern Thursday morning will likely feature a low over southern MI, with a cold front extending southwestward to another low over northwest TX. The northern portion of the cold front will remain progressive, moving eastward across the OH Valley. The southern portion of the front (from northwest TX across OK) will only make modest eastward/southeastward progress throughout the day, as another low develops over west TX. This second low is then expected to push northeastward along the front from Thursday evening into Friday, moving from the Permian Basin into southeast OK. At it does, an associated dryline will move eastward across southwest and central TX.

Southern Plains

Low to mid 60s dewpoints are expected be in place along the front early Thursday morning, likely increasing into the mid/upper 60s by the late afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture coupled with modest daytime heating should destabilize the airmass south of the front by the late afternoon. Consequently, convergence along the front is expected to result in thunderstorm development, likely beginning over OK. Vertical shear will be strong, and the initial more cellular development may produce hail. However, the slow-moving front combined with the front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer vertical shear suggests numerous storms and messy storm mode. This could limit the overall severe potential across much of OK.

Farther south, thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of the deepening surface low expected to move into northwest TX during the late afternoon/early evening. A more cross-boundary vertical shear vector is anticipated here, supporting a greater potential for supercells for at least a few hours. Very large hail is possible with these storms as well as damaging gusts. As the low and associated front continue eastward, storm coverage should increase southward across the TX Hill Country/Edwards Plateau. Hail and damaging gusts are possible with this line of storms as it moves eastward toward the I-35 corridor early Friday morning.

..Mosier.. 03/21/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Friday, March 24

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200854 SPC AC 200854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper pattern early D4/Thursday is forecast to consist of a western CONUS trough and subtropical ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Enhanced mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will persist between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into the Great Lakes region. The surface pattern is expected to feature a low over northern IN, with a cold front extending southwestward across the Mid MS Valley, Ozark Plateau, and OK into southwest TX. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front D4/Thursday afternoon, supported by ample pre-frontal moisture and a combination of large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave moving into the southern High Plains and convergence along the front. Given the expected vertical shear, supercells are possible in areas where a discrete mode can be maintained. This appears most probable from south-central OK into the TX Hill Country.

A shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern and central Plains on D5/Friday. An associated surface low is expected to develop along the front over AR before then continuing northeastward ahead of the shortwave. Thunderstorms will likely already be ongoing along the front, and the severity of these storms will be linked to the amount of downstream destabilization. Reintensification appears most probable across central and southern MS, where some potential for discrete storms ahead of the front also exists.

Variability within the guidance limits forecast confidence from D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. The late-week shortwave trough will likely continue eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Southeast on D6/Saturday, but severe potential is uncertain given questions about frontal timing and low-level moisture. Moisture return appears possible across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on D7/Sunday into D8/Monday, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. But aforementioned variability limits predictability.

..Mosier.. 03/20/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, March 25

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200854 SPC AC 200854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper pattern early D4/Thursday is forecast to consist of a western CONUS trough and subtropical ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Enhanced mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will persist between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into the Great Lakes region. The surface pattern is expected to feature a low over northern IN, with a cold front extending southwestward across the Mid MS Valley, Ozark Plateau, and OK into southwest TX. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front D4/Thursday afternoon, supported by ample pre-frontal moisture and a combination of large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave moving into the southern High Plains and convergence along the front. Given the expected vertical shear, supercells are possible in areas where a discrete mode can be maintained. This appears most probable from south-central OK into the TX Hill Country.

A shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern and central Plains on D5/Friday. An associated surface low is expected to develop along the front over AR before then continuing northeastward ahead of the shortwave. Thunderstorms will likely already be ongoing along the front, and the severity of these storms will be linked to the amount of downstream destabilization. Reintensification appears most probable across central and southern MS, where some potential for discrete storms ahead of the front also exists.

Variability within the guidance limits forecast confidence from D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. The late-week shortwave trough will likely continue eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Southeast on D6/Saturday, but severe potential is uncertain given questions about frontal timing and low-level moisture. Moisture return appears possible across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on D7/Sunday into D8/Monday, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. But aforementioned variability limits predictability.

..Mosier.. 03/20/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Sunday, March 26

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200854 SPC AC 200854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper pattern early D4/Thursday is forecast to consist of a western CONUS trough and subtropical ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Enhanced mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will persist between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into the Great Lakes region. The surface pattern is expected to feature a low over northern IN, with a cold front extending southwestward across the Mid MS Valley, Ozark Plateau, and OK into southwest TX. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front D4/Thursday afternoon, supported by ample pre-frontal moisture and a combination of large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave moving into the southern High Plains and convergence along the front. Given the expected vertical shear, supercells are possible in areas where a discrete mode can be maintained. This appears most probable from south-central OK into the TX Hill Country.

A shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern and central Plains on D5/Friday. An associated surface low is expected to develop along the front over AR before then continuing northeastward ahead of the shortwave. Thunderstorms will likely already be ongoing along the front, and the severity of these storms will be linked to the amount of downstream destabilization. Reintensification appears most probable across central and southern MS, where some potential for discrete storms ahead of the front also exists.

Variability within the guidance limits forecast confidence from D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. The late-week shortwave trough will likely continue eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Southeast on D6/Saturday, but severe potential is uncertain given questions about frontal timing and low-level moisture. Moisture return appears possible across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on D7/Sunday into D8/Monday, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. But aforementioned variability limits predictability.

..Mosier.. 03/20/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, March 27

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200854 SPC AC 200854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper pattern early D4/Thursday is forecast to consist of a western CONUS trough and subtropical ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Enhanced mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will persist between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into the Great Lakes region. The surface pattern is expected to feature a low over northern IN, with a cold front extending southwestward across the Mid MS Valley, Ozark Plateau, and OK into southwest TX. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front D4/Thursday afternoon, supported by ample pre-frontal moisture and a combination of large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave moving into the southern High Plains and convergence along the front. Given the expected vertical shear, supercells are possible in areas where a discrete mode can be maintained. This appears most probable from south-central OK into the TX Hill Country.

A shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern and central Plains on D5/Friday. An associated surface low is expected to develop along the front over AR before then continuing northeastward ahead of the shortwave. Thunderstorms will likely already be ongoing along the front, and the severity of these storms will be linked to the amount of downstream destabilization. Reintensification appears most probable across central and southern MS, where some potential for discrete storms ahead of the front also exists.

Variability within the guidance limits forecast confidence from D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. The late-week shortwave trough will likely continue eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Southeast on D6/Saturday, but severe potential is uncertain given questions about frontal timing and low-level moisture. Moisture return appears possible across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on D7/Sunday into D8/Monday, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough. But aforementioned variability limits predictability.

..Mosier.. 03/20/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, March 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, March 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Thursday, March 23: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, March 24: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, March 25: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, March 26: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, March 27: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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