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Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, December 6
Wednesday, December 7
Thursday, December 8
Friday, December 9
Saturday, December 10
Sunday, December 11
Monday, December 12
Tuesday, December 13

Outlook for Tuesday, December 6

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 061241

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 AM CST Tue Dec 06 2022

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.

Synopsis

Modest height rises are expected over the Gulf of Mexico and South, while an upstream midlevel trough moves inland over CA/NV with the potential for isolated thunderstorms. In between, a belt of southwesterly flow aloft will be maintained from AZ/NM to the Great Lakes/OH Valley. At the surface, a weak wave is expected to move northeastward along slow-moving front from eastern OK to the lower OH Valley, and this weak low and front will help focus thunderstorm development through tonight.

Mid-South through tonight

Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are present south of the front from northeast TX to the Mid-South, and the warm sector should make a little northward progress toward western KY in advance of the weak wave. Clouds will be pervasive through the day and inhibit surface heating along the front, which will tend to limit MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg. There is a small window of opportunity for near-surface-based convection along the front from northeast AR to western TN later this afternoon/evening. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for supercells with relatively long hodographs and some low-level hodograph curvature. However, the weak buoyancy and relatively weak forcing for ascent suggest that any threat for wind damage or a brief tornado is too low to warrant an outlook area.

..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/06/2022

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, December 7

Outlook Summary

Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 060654

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 06 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.

Discussion

While a deep upper vortex remains over north-central Canada and a stout ridge persists over the Gulf of Mexico, a western U.S. trough – embedded in the fast southwesterly flow field between the two aforementioned features – will cross the Four Corners/southern Rockies on Wednesday.

As this occurs, a surface baroclinic zone – initially stretching from northern and western Texas northeastward to the central Appalachians – will shift eastward and southeastward across the eastern and southeastern states, respectively. Farther west, some northward drift of the front into Oklahoma is expected overnight, ahead of the advancing western upper system.

Showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected to occur, within the general vicinity of the front. However, instability is forecast to be quite weak. This factor, combined with a much of the convection over the south-central region being north of the front with a low-level warm-advection regime, suggests that risk for stronger storms should remain minimal at best, through the period.

..Goss.. 12/06/2022

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, December 8

Outlook Summary

Appreciable severe weather still appears unlikely on Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 060832

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CST Tue Dec 06 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Appreciable severe weather still appears unlikely on Thursday.

Discussion

Models continue to depict continued east-northeastward advance of a deamplifying short-wave trough across the central Plains, that should reach the Mid Mississippi Valley region overnight. As this feature advances, modest surface cyclogenesis is likewise anticipated, with a weak low expected to cross Missouri and approach Illinois overnight.

Accompanying this system will be a very favorable flow field from a severe-weather perspective, with low-level flow veering – and substantially intensifying – with height. However, models continue to depict very weak CAPE at best, and very likely elevated above a roughly 100mb-deep surface-based neutral to slightly stable layer.

Given this environment, severe risk appears to be non-zero, but at this time too minimal to issue a 5%/MRGL risk area. With that said, the NAM remains most suggestive that 50 to 100mb mixed-layer/near-surface-based CAPE could evolve into the mid Ohio Valley area, where the most favorably sheared environment is expected. Should this more aggressive solution appear likely to verify, and particularly could potential for slightly greater warm-sector destabilization become apparent, MRGL tornado/wind risk may be considered.

Elsewhere, a few flashes may occur over coastal Washington later in the period.

..Goss.. 12/06/2022

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

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Outlook for Friday, December 9

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060959 SPC AC 060959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Dec 06 2022

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models over the past two runs have converged with respect to depiction of the large-scale features – both surface and aloft – through all but the very end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday Dec. 13).

At this time, severe-weather risk appears low through Day 6, as a relatively low-amplitude pattern early in the period gradually amplifies, as large-scale troughing slowly evolves over the West.

It appears at this time that the result of Gulf of Alaska short-wave troughing digging southward in broadly cyclonic western NOAM flow on Day 5/Saturday, will be deepening of the longer-wave trough, and eventual eastern advance of the trough across the Intermountain West Day 6/Sunday. During this time, downstream convective potential appears likely to remain subdued in weakly anticyclonic flow east of the Rockies.

Day 7, models suggest that the trough begins emerging into the Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis is expected to begin over the central/southern High Plains vicinity, and then move across roughly the Kansas vicinity during the evening. As this low advances, strengthening southerly low-level flow would advect seasonably high theta-e air northward into the evolving warm sector, suggesting ample destabilization to support storm development as a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, with the low-level southerlies topped by strong southwesterly flow accompanying the upper system, shear profiles consistent with supercell storms are indicated.

Given this potential for severe weather indicated by both the GFS and ECMWF, and with at least reasonable support for such evolution evident within both ECMWF and GEFS ensembles, a 15% risk area is being introduced for Day 7 – centered over the Arklatex region.

Some risk could continue into Day 8, across the Tennessee and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valleys, but this remains a bit more uncertain at this time.

..Goss.. 12/06/2022

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, December 10

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060959 SPC AC 060959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Dec 06 2022

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models over the past two runs have converged with respect to depiction of the large-scale features – both surface and aloft – through all but the very end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday Dec. 13).

At this time, severe-weather risk appears low through Day 6, as a relatively low-amplitude pattern early in the period gradually amplifies, as large-scale troughing slowly evolves over the West.

It appears at this time that the result of Gulf of Alaska short-wave troughing digging southward in broadly cyclonic western NOAM flow on Day 5/Saturday, will be deepening of the longer-wave trough, and eventual eastern advance of the trough across the Intermountain West Day 6/Sunday. During this time, downstream convective potential appears likely to remain subdued in weakly anticyclonic flow east of the Rockies.

Day 7, models suggest that the trough begins emerging into the Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis is expected to begin over the central/southern High Plains vicinity, and then move across roughly the Kansas vicinity during the evening. As this low advances, strengthening southerly low-level flow would advect seasonably high theta-e air northward into the evolving warm sector, suggesting ample destabilization to support storm development as a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, with the low-level southerlies topped by strong southwesterly flow accompanying the upper system, shear profiles consistent with supercell storms are indicated.

Given this potential for severe weather indicated by both the GFS and ECMWF, and with at least reasonable support for such evolution evident within both ECMWF and GEFS ensembles, a 15% risk area is being introduced for Day 7 – centered over the Arklatex region.

Some risk could continue into Day 8, across the Tennessee and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valleys, but this remains a bit more uncertain at this time.

..Goss.. 12/06/2022

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, December 11

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060959 SPC AC 060959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Dec 06 2022

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models over the past two runs have converged with respect to depiction of the large-scale features – both surface and aloft – through all but the very end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday Dec. 13).

At this time, severe-weather risk appears low through Day 6, as a relatively low-amplitude pattern early in the period gradually amplifies, as large-scale troughing slowly evolves over the West.

It appears at this time that the result of Gulf of Alaska short-wave troughing digging southward in broadly cyclonic western NOAM flow on Day 5/Saturday, will be deepening of the longer-wave trough, and eventual eastern advance of the trough across the Intermountain West Day 6/Sunday. During this time, downstream convective potential appears likely to remain subdued in weakly anticyclonic flow east of the Rockies.

Day 7, models suggest that the trough begins emerging into the Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis is expected to begin over the central/southern High Plains vicinity, and then move across roughly the Kansas vicinity during the evening. As this low advances, strengthening southerly low-level flow would advect seasonably high theta-e air northward into the evolving warm sector, suggesting ample destabilization to support storm development as a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, with the low-level southerlies topped by strong southwesterly flow accompanying the upper system, shear profiles consistent with supercell storms are indicated.

Given this potential for severe weather indicated by both the GFS and ECMWF, and with at least reasonable support for such evolution evident within both ECMWF and GEFS ensembles, a 15% risk area is being introduced for Day 7 – centered over the Arklatex region.

Some risk could continue into Day 8, across the Tennessee and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valleys, but this remains a bit more uncertain at this time.

..Goss.. 12/06/2022

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, December 12

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060959 SPC AC 060959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Dec 06 2022

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models over the past two runs have converged with respect to depiction of the large-scale features – both surface and aloft – through all but the very end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday Dec. 13).

At this time, severe-weather risk appears low through Day 6, as a relatively low-amplitude pattern early in the period gradually amplifies, as large-scale troughing slowly evolves over the West.

It appears at this time that the result of Gulf of Alaska short-wave troughing digging southward in broadly cyclonic western NOAM flow on Day 5/Saturday, will be deepening of the longer-wave trough, and eventual eastern advance of the trough across the Intermountain West Day 6/Sunday. During this time, downstream convective potential appears likely to remain subdued in weakly anticyclonic flow east of the Rockies.

Day 7, models suggest that the trough begins emerging into the Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis is expected to begin over the central/southern High Plains vicinity, and then move across roughly the Kansas vicinity during the evening. As this low advances, strengthening southerly low-level flow would advect seasonably high theta-e air northward into the evolving warm sector, suggesting ample destabilization to support storm development as a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, with the low-level southerlies topped by strong southwesterly flow accompanying the upper system, shear profiles consistent with supercell storms are indicated.

Given this potential for severe weather indicated by both the GFS and ECMWF, and with at least reasonable support for such evolution evident within both ECMWF and GEFS ensembles, a 15% risk area is being introduced for Day 7 – centered over the Arklatex region.

Some risk could continue into Day 8, across the Tennessee and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valleys, but this remains a bit more uncertain at this time.

..Goss.. 12/06/2022

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, December 13

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060959 SPC AC 060959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Dec 06 2022

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models over the past two runs have converged with respect to depiction of the large-scale features – both surface and aloft – through all but the very end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday Dec. 13).

At this time, severe-weather risk appears low through Day 6, as a relatively low-amplitude pattern early in the period gradually amplifies, as large-scale troughing slowly evolves over the West.

It appears at this time that the result of Gulf of Alaska short-wave troughing digging southward in broadly cyclonic western NOAM flow on Day 5/Saturday, will be deepening of the longer-wave trough, and eventual eastern advance of the trough across the Intermountain West Day 6/Sunday. During this time, downstream convective potential appears likely to remain subdued in weakly anticyclonic flow east of the Rockies.

Day 7, models suggest that the trough begins emerging into the Plains. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis is expected to begin over the central/southern High Plains vicinity, and then move across roughly the Kansas vicinity during the evening. As this low advances, strengthening southerly low-level flow would advect seasonably high theta-e air northward into the evolving warm sector, suggesting ample destabilization to support storm development as a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, with the low-level southerlies topped by strong southwesterly flow accompanying the upper system, shear profiles consistent with supercell storms are indicated.

Given this potential for severe weather indicated by both the GFS and ECMWF, and with at least reasonable support for such evolution evident within both ECMWF and GEFS ensembles, a 15% risk area is being introduced for Day 7 – centered over the Arklatex region.

Some risk could continue into Day 8, across the Tennessee and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valleys, but this remains a bit more uncertain at this time.

..Goss.. 12/06/2022

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, December 6
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Wednesday, December 7
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Thursday, December 8
ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, December 9
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, December 10
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, December 11
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, December 12
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, December 13
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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