Severe Weather Outlook
National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week
Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.
Overview of the threat for the next few days
Outlook for Tuesday, April 13
Outlook Summary
Episodes of strong to severe thunderstorms are most probable today and tonight from east Texas across parts of Louisiana.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 15%
hail 15%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131625
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TX INTO WESTERN LA
### SUMMARY
Episodes of strong to severe thunderstorms are most probable today and tonight from east Texas across parts of Louisiana.
LA/TX areas today into tonight
A cluster of slightly elevated thunderstorms is ongoing across south central and southeast LA as of late morning, with a few embedded stronger cells capable of producing isolated large hail. The hail threat is supported by the influx of low-mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints across the northwest Gulf coast, beneath the eastern extent of midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km. The convection this morning has been driven largely by weak low-level warm advection in a moist profile with little convective inhibition, which suggests that storms will likely persist through the afternoon. Gradual upscale growth into a larger cluster/MCS appears possible, with a tendency for cold pool formation to result in slow southeastward propagation into this afternoon/evening. The primary severe threats with these storms will be occasional large hail and isolated damaging gusts.
Farther west and later this afternoon, isolated surface-based storm development will be possible along the stalled synoptic front across east TX. Forcing for ascent will be weak and this area will be along the northeast edge of the stronger cap, so diurnal storm coverage is in question. If storms do form this afternoon, the environment conditionally favors supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Otherwise, another round of strong-severe storms appears probable from east TX into LA in conjunction with some increase in low-level warm advection late tonight. A continued feed of rich low-level moisture from the south and steep midlevel lapse rates will maintain MUCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, with an attendant threat for at least isolated large hail/damaging winds.
..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/13/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
Outlook for Wednesday, April 14
Outlook Summary
Strong thunderstorms may impact western and central portions of the Gulf coastal plain, as well as southern portions of the Mid Atlantic Coast states, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Outlook Images
overview
tornado 2%
wind 5%
hail 5%
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 131745
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS …SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE….SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
CORRECTED GRAPHIC DISCREPANCY IN GULF COASTAL VICINITY
SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorms may impact western and central portions of the Gulf coastal plain, as well as southern portions of the Mid Atlantic Coast states, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Synopsis
Models suggest that a blocking mid-level high will continue to develop and become more prominent during this period, centered across British Columbia. This will contribute to the maintenance of a split flow across much of North America into the western Atlantic, with several broad, embedded cyclonic circulations likely to persist.
At mid-levels, there may be little movement to one of these lows centered across the Great Basin, to the southeast of the building high. In response to a short wave trough digging across the Canadian Prairies, to the east of the high, a downstream low may slowly shift southeast of the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes region, with some southeastward development of another low also possible across the western Atlantic. To the south and southwest of the eastern perturbations, models indicate that there may be some suppression of mid-level subtropical ridging, with flow tending to veer from westerly to west-northwesterly across the north central through eastern Gulf coast vicinity.
Initially progressing into or approaching the Appalachians and Mid South/Ozark Plateau vicinity by 12Z Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to advance into the Southeast and through the lower Mississippi Valley/northwestern Gulf coast region by the end of the period. There has already been a preceding southward surge of colder air through much of central and southwest Texas, which likely will be reinforced. A preceding convectively generated or enhanced surface boundary appears likely to persist across parts of the upper Texas coastal plain and southern Louisiana into the north central Gulf of Mexico.
Gulf coastal plain
The most substantive boundary-layer destabilization Wednesday is expected to be confined to pre-cold frontal areas along and to the southwest of the convective boundary. Although smaller scale developments remain unclear due to model spread, which could impact the magnitude of this destabilization, it appears that low/mid-level warm advection along and north of the convective boundary could contribute to thunderstorm development across the upper Texas coastal plain into southern Louisiana by early Wednesday. It appears that this will occur ahead of a weak perturbation migrating around the periphery of the subtropical ridging, and could coincide with increasing boundary-layer destabilization.
Depending upon the timing, it is possible that increasing inflow of moderately large CAPE (in excess of 1000 J/kg), in the presence of modestly sheared 30-40 kt westerly to northwesterly mean flow, could become conducive to the evolution of an organized cluster of storms which could pose a risk for severe hail and wind. As this activity tends to propagate offshore, an upstream perturbation may contribute similar storm development near the trailing outflow and cold front intersection, near upper Texas coastal areas later Wednesday afternoon or evening.
Southern Mid Atlantic Coast region
Models suggest that the warm sector of a weak developing surface low, along the front to the east of the southern Appalachians, could become conducive to vigorous thunderstorm development late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Although boundary-layer moisture might be fairly modest, deep boundary-layer mixing, in the presence of strengthening vertical shear, might contribute an environment supportive of thunderstorms capable of producing small hail and potentially damaging surface gusts.
..Kerr.. 04/13/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Outlook for Thursday, April 15
Outlook Summary
Severe storms are not forecast on Thursday.
Outlook Images
overview
any severe low
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewSPC AC 130706
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
### SUMMARY
Severe storms are not forecast on Thursday.
Synopsis
An upper low over the lower Great Lakes region will pivot eastward to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast by Friday morning. Further west, the upper low over the Great Basin will become an open wave as it emerges into the Plains. At the surface, a cold front will extend south/southwest from a low offshore from DE/MD into southern GA and then likely just offshore the central Gulf Coast and into southern TX. The front will drop southward across the northern FL Peninsula while stalling over the northern Gulf. In response to the ejecting western upper trough, weak lee low development across eastern NM will result in modest low-level warm advection across TX. While Gulf moisture will mostly be cut off thanks to the cold front draped over the region, upper 50s to near 60 F surface dewpoints should work their way northward toward the Permian Basin after 00z. Showers and perhaps some elevated thunderstorms will be possible, but severe potential appears limited by weak instability and a strong cap.
..Leitman.. 04/13/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Outlook for Friday, April 16
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130834 SPC AC 130834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall severe potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. A series of shortwave upper troughs will migrate across the CONUS through early next week. A cold front will dive south/southeast across the central/southern Plains on Day 4/Friday and some elevated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of TX. The front will continue to push southward across the southeastern U.S. and into the Gulf of Mexico into Saturday. Previous frontal intrusions into the Gulf prior to the Day 4/5 period will result in limited moisture and instability, limiting severe potential across the central Gulf Coast region on Saturday ahead of the cold front. Surface high pressure will then persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the end of the period, with Gulf moisture remaining offshore, providing little opportunity for severe convection.
..Leitman.. 04/13/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Saturday, April 17
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130834 SPC AC 130834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall severe potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. A series of shortwave upper troughs will migrate across the CONUS through early next week. A cold front will dive south/southeast across the central/southern Plains on Day 4/Friday and some elevated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of TX. The front will continue to push southward across the southeastern U.S. and into the Gulf of Mexico into Saturday. Previous frontal intrusions into the Gulf prior to the Day 4/5 period will result in limited moisture and instability, limiting severe potential across the central Gulf Coast region on Saturday ahead of the cold front. Surface high pressure will then persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the end of the period, with Gulf moisture remaining offshore, providing little opportunity for severe convection.
..Leitman.. 04/13/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Sunday, April 18
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130834 SPC AC 130834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall severe potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. A series of shortwave upper troughs will migrate across the CONUS through early next week. A cold front will dive south/southeast across the central/southern Plains on Day 4/Friday and some elevated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of TX. The front will continue to push southward across the southeastern U.S. and into the Gulf of Mexico into Saturday. Previous frontal intrusions into the Gulf prior to the Day 4/5 period will result in limited moisture and instability, limiting severe potential across the central Gulf Coast region on Saturday ahead of the cold front. Surface high pressure will then persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the end of the period, with Gulf moisture remaining offshore, providing little opportunity for severe convection.
..Leitman.. 04/13/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Monday, April 19
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130834 SPC AC 130834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall severe potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. A series of shortwave upper troughs will migrate across the CONUS through early next week. A cold front will dive south/southeast across the central/southern Plains on Day 4/Friday and some elevated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of TX. The front will continue to push southward across the southeastern U.S. and into the Gulf of Mexico into Saturday. Previous frontal intrusions into the Gulf prior to the Day 4/5 period will result in limited moisture and instability, limiting severe potential across the central Gulf Coast region on Saturday ahead of the cold front. Surface high pressure will then persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the end of the period, with Gulf moisture remaining offshore, providing little opportunity for severe convection.
..Leitman.. 04/13/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Outlook for Tuesday, April 20
Outlook Images
any severe low / uncertain
Note on Medium Range Outlooks
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
Detailed Outlook
← back to overviewZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130834 SPC AC 130834
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
DISCUSSION
Overall severe potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. A series of shortwave upper troughs will migrate across the CONUS through early next week. A cold front will dive south/southeast across the central/southern Plains on Day 4/Friday and some elevated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of TX. The front will continue to push southward across the southeastern U.S. and into the Gulf of Mexico into Saturday. Previous frontal intrusions into the Gulf prior to the Day 4/5 period will result in limited moisture and instability, limiting severe potential across the central Gulf Coast region on Saturday ahead of the cold front. Surface high pressure will then persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the end of the period, with Gulf moisture remaining offshore, providing little opportunity for severe convection.
..Leitman.. 04/13/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
National Risk Overview
- Tuesday, April 13
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 15%
- WIND: 15%
- Wednesday, April 14
- TORNADO: 2%
- HAIL: 5%
- WIND: 5%
- Thursday, April 15
- ANY SEVERE: low
- Friday, April 16
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Saturday, April 17
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Sunday, April 18
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Monday, April 19
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
- Tuesday, April 20
- ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
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