Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Wednesday, June 7

Thursday, June 8

Friday, June 9

Saturday, June 10

Sunday, June 11

Monday, June 12

Tuesday, June 13

Outlook for Wednesday, June 7

Outlook Summary

Marginally severe thunderstorms, associated with strong winds and hail, will be possible today across parts of the southern High Plains, Northwest, northern Plains, lower to mid Missouri Valley, Carolinas, and Florida.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070544

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS…NORTHWEST…NORTHERN PLAINS…LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY…CAROLINAS…AND FLORIDA.

### SUMMARY

Marginally severe thunderstorms, associated with strong winds and hail, will be possible today across parts of the southern High Plains, Northwest, northern Plains, lower to mid Missouri Valley, Carolinas, and Florida.

Southern Atlantic Seaboard

A cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across much of the eastern U.S., with an upper-level low located in northern New England. At the surface, a trough will deepen along the Atlantic Seaboard as a cold front advances southward through the southern Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F across much of the Southeast into the eastern Carolinas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon along the surface trough. Additional storms may form near sea-breeze boundaries in the coastal Carolinas, and along the east coast of Florida. Steep low-level lapse rates near peak heating may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger multicells.

Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Northern Plains

A quasi-stationary front will be located from the eastern Dakotas south-southeastward into the lower Missouri Valley today. Along and to the east of the boundary, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to a somewhat narrow corridor of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the mid to late afternoon as instability and low-level convergence become maximized near the front. Marginally severe winds and hail will be possible, especially in areas were low-level lapse rates become the steepest.

Southern High Plains

An upper-level ridge will remain in place today across the southern High Plains. Beneath the ridge, warm surface temperatures and steep lapse rates will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas, with the storms moving slowly into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. The instability, along with steep lapse rates, will likely support a threat for strong winds and hail.

Northwest

An upper-level low will move slowly northeastward into the Sierra Nevada of eastern California today. To the north and east of the low, mid-level flow will be from the south and southeast across much of the Intermountain West. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon in the higher terrain, and in the lower elevations where temperatures sufficiently warm. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates will likely support a marginal wind-damage and hail threat.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 06/07/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Thursday, June 8

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of Texas, the Southeast, Dakotas, and northern Rockies/High Plains. Strong to locally damaging winds and hail should be the main threats.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070600

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS…THE SOUTHEAST…DAKOTAS…AND NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of Texas, the Southeast, Dakotas, and northern Rockies/High Plains. Strong to locally damaging winds and hail should be the main threats.

Synopsis

The upper-air pattern across the CONUS will remain generally stagnant on Thursday. Upper ridging will extend from western Canada across much of the Plains. A weak upper low over the Great Basin should drift slowly northward through the period. Large-scale upper troughing will continue across the eastern states, with some amplification of its southern extent across the Southeast.

Texas

Neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights should occur Thursday in association with the southern portion of upper ridging across TX. Still, it appears probable that a remnant MCV from prior convection will be in place somewhere across central TX. Latest high-resolution guidance suggests that isolated to scattered convection will develop Thursday afternoon downstream of the MCV and associated outflow boundaries across parts of central into southeast/coastal TX. Heating of a moist low-level airmass will likely aid the development of moderate instability. Weak low-level winds should gradually increase with height into mid/upper levels. 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear is forecast, with multicell clusters and perhaps a marginal supercell or two possible. Isolated severe hail and wind gusts should be the main threats with any robust convection that can develop and spread east-southeastward to the Gulf Coast through Thursday evening.

Southeast

A weak cold front is forecast to shift southward Thursday across parts of the Southeast as an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moves across the TN Valley and Carolinas. 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by peak afternoon heating along/south of the front from parts of north FL into southern/central GA and vicinity. Although the stronger mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough will likely remain displaced to the north of the surface front, sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized convection should be present in a narrow corridor along and just south of the boundary. Multicell clusters capable of producing isolated damaging winds and some hail appear possible as convection develops along the front and subsequently moves east-southeastward Thursday afternoon and evening.

Dakotas

Modest (around 15-25 kt) northerly mid-level winds will be present over the eastern Dakotas Thursday, on the eastern side of an upper ridge. A narrow corridor of moderate to locally strong instability should also develop across this area Thursday afternoon along/west of a surface front. Weak low-level winds veering with height through mid/upper levels should foster around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear. A mix of multicells and marginal supercell structures may develop along a weak surface trough moving southward, and possibly in association with a convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity maxima. This activity should pose an isolated threat for large hail and severe/damaging wind gusts as it spreads southward from ND into eastern SD through Thursday evening. Weak large-scale ascent aloft limits confidence in greater coverage of strong to severe convection.

Northern Rockies/High Plains

High-based thunderstorms should develop once again Thursday afternoon across parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, on the northern periphery of a weak upper low expected to remain over the Great Basin. Winds through the troposphere are forecast to remain fairly weak. Still, up to 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear should be enough to foster occasional convective organization and some clustering. A fairly moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s, is also forecast across parts of eastern WA into northern ID and MT. As low-level lapse rates steepen with diurnal heating and weak to moderate instability develops, convective downdrafts may produce isolated severe wind gusts. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores, particularly where greater instability is forecast over the northern High Plains of central/eastern MT.

..Gleason.. 06/07/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Friday, June 9

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern/central Plains on Friday, and over portions of Florida and southern Georgia.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 070730

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern/central Plains on Friday, and over portions of Florida and southern Georgia.

Southern/Central Plains

A southern-stream shortwave trough should move eastward from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern High Plains through Friday night. This trough should help erode the persistent upper ridge across the southern Plains, and mid/upper-level flow should also gradually strengthen through the period. A weak surface low is forecast to develop over southeastern CO by early Friday evening, with a dryline extending south-southeastward from this low across the southern High Plains.

There is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding convective initiation along the dryline through late Friday afternoon, as modest ascent associated with the shortwave trough will probably not overspread the surface warm sector until Friday evening/night. Still, moderate instability and marginally sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across parts of the southern/central High Plains to support some organized convection and related hail/wind threat. For now, have confined the Marginal Risk to locations where confidence is greatest in robust convection developing late Friday afternoon through Friday night. A more conditional threat for severe thunderstorms will exist farther south into west/central TX, but too much uncertainty regarding convective initiation and cap strength currently exists to include low severe probabilities any farther south.

Florida/Southern Georgia

A weak southern-stream upper trough should advance eastward from the Gulf of Mexico across FL on Friday. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level flow should accompany this feature, supporting around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear. Any thunderstorms that can develop Friday afternoon along/south of a weak front in southern GA/north FL, or along the Atlantic sea breeze, may be capable of producing isolated damaging winds and hail.

..Gleason.. 06/07/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Saturday, June 10

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing over the eastern states should move into the western Atlantic on Day 4/Friday, with upper ridging remaining prominent from western Canada into the Rockies and much of the Plains. Some guidance indicates that a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet may advance eastward from the Southwest and northern Mexico across the southern High Plains by Friday evening. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop along a sharpening dryline across the southern High Plains in response. Instability and shear appear adequate for some severe threat with any convection that can form. However, confidence in thunderstorm coverage is not high enough to include a 15% severe area at this time. Isolated severe thunderstorms also appear possible Friday across parts of north FL along/south of a weak front, and across parts of the northern/central Plains as a separate cold front advances southward.

An upper trough/low should approach the West Coast on Day 5/Saturday, and move slowly eastward across the western CONUS through Day 6/Sunday. While upper ridging will likely be maintained over the Rockies and High Plains, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen this upcoming weekend across the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture should also return northward over the southern/central Plains in this time frame. In general, upper ridging will prevail over the warm sector; but, weaknesses in the ridging associated with weak mid-level perturbations are evident in model guidance across the southern Plains through the weekend. Any thunderstorms that can develop along the length of the dryline, or perhaps near a front/dryline intersection, should be capable of producing severe hail/winds. Due to nebulous large-scale forcing, too much uncertainty currently exists in the placement and coverage of robust convection to include any severe areas this weekend across the southern Plains, but model trends will be closely monitored.

Differences in the synoptic-scale pattern across the CONUS become more substantial in medium-range guidance from Day 7/Monday onward. Regardless, upper troughing should advance slowly eastward from the western to central CONUS early next week. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper-level flow should overlap the warm sector and pose a risk for severe thunderstorms. Exactly where the greatest threat will develop remains highly uncertain given current model spread. But, an increasing threat for severe thunderstorms is evident across parts of the southern/central Plains to the MS Valley early next week.

..Gleason.. 06/06/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Sunday, June 11

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing over the eastern states should move into the western Atlantic on Day 4/Friday, with upper ridging remaining prominent from western Canada into the Rockies and much of the Plains. Some guidance indicates that a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet may advance eastward from the Southwest and northern Mexico across the southern High Plains by Friday evening. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop along a sharpening dryline across the southern High Plains in response. Instability and shear appear adequate for some severe threat with any convection that can form. However, confidence in thunderstorm coverage is not high enough to include a 15% severe area at this time. Isolated severe thunderstorms also appear possible Friday across parts of north FL along/south of a weak front, and across parts of the northern/central Plains as a separate cold front advances southward.

An upper trough/low should approach the West Coast on Day 5/Saturday, and move slowly eastward across the western CONUS through Day 6/Sunday. While upper ridging will likely be maintained over the Rockies and High Plains, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen this upcoming weekend across the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture should also return northward over the southern/central Plains in this time frame. In general, upper ridging will prevail over the warm sector; but, weaknesses in the ridging associated with weak mid-level perturbations are evident in model guidance across the southern Plains through the weekend. Any thunderstorms that can develop along the length of the dryline, or perhaps near a front/dryline intersection, should be capable of producing severe hail/winds. Due to nebulous large-scale forcing, too much uncertainty currently exists in the placement and coverage of robust convection to include any severe areas this weekend across the southern Plains, but model trends will be closely monitored.

Differences in the synoptic-scale pattern across the CONUS become more substantial in medium-range guidance from Day 7/Monday onward. Regardless, upper troughing should advance slowly eastward from the western to central CONUS early next week. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper-level flow should overlap the warm sector and pose a risk for severe thunderstorms. Exactly where the greatest threat will develop remains highly uncertain given current model spread. But, an increasing threat for severe thunderstorms is evident across parts of the southern/central Plains to the MS Valley early next week.

..Gleason.. 06/06/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Monday, June 12

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing over the eastern states should move into the western Atlantic on Day 4/Friday, with upper ridging remaining prominent from western Canada into the Rockies and much of the Plains. Some guidance indicates that a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet may advance eastward from the Southwest and northern Mexico across the southern High Plains by Friday evening. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop along a sharpening dryline across the southern High Plains in response. Instability and shear appear adequate for some severe threat with any convection that can form. However, confidence in thunderstorm coverage is not high enough to include a 15% severe area at this time. Isolated severe thunderstorms also appear possible Friday across parts of north FL along/south of a weak front, and across parts of the northern/central Plains as a separate cold front advances southward.

An upper trough/low should approach the West Coast on Day 5/Saturday, and move slowly eastward across the western CONUS through Day 6/Sunday. While upper ridging will likely be maintained over the Rockies and High Plains, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen this upcoming weekend across the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture should also return northward over the southern/central Plains in this time frame. In general, upper ridging will prevail over the warm sector; but, weaknesses in the ridging associated with weak mid-level perturbations are evident in model guidance across the southern Plains through the weekend. Any thunderstorms that can develop along the length of the dryline, or perhaps near a front/dryline intersection, should be capable of producing severe hail/winds. Due to nebulous large-scale forcing, too much uncertainty currently exists in the placement and coverage of robust convection to include any severe areas this weekend across the southern Plains, but model trends will be closely monitored.

Differences in the synoptic-scale pattern across the CONUS become more substantial in medium-range guidance from Day 7/Monday onward. Regardless, upper troughing should advance slowly eastward from the western to central CONUS early next week. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper-level flow should overlap the warm sector and pose a risk for severe thunderstorms. Exactly where the greatest threat will develop remains highly uncertain given current model spread. But, an increasing threat for severe thunderstorms is evident across parts of the southern/central Plains to the MS Valley early next week.

..Gleason.. 06/06/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook for Tuesday, June 13

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060900 SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper troughing over the eastern states should move into the western Atlantic on Day 4/Friday, with upper ridging remaining prominent from western Canada into the Rockies and much of the Plains. Some guidance indicates that a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet may advance eastward from the Southwest and northern Mexico across the southern High Plains by Friday evening. Isolated thunderstorms will probably develop along a sharpening dryline across the southern High Plains in response. Instability and shear appear adequate for some severe threat with any convection that can form. However, confidence in thunderstorm coverage is not high enough to include a 15% severe area at this time. Isolated severe thunderstorms also appear possible Friday across parts of north FL along/south of a weak front, and across parts of the northern/central Plains as a separate cold front advances southward.

An upper trough/low should approach the West Coast on Day 5/Saturday, and move slowly eastward across the western CONUS through Day 6/Sunday. While upper ridging will likely be maintained over the Rockies and High Plains, mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen this upcoming weekend across the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture should also return northward over the southern/central Plains in this time frame. In general, upper ridging will prevail over the warm sector; but, weaknesses in the ridging associated with weak mid-level perturbations are evident in model guidance across the southern Plains through the weekend. Any thunderstorms that can develop along the length of the dryline, or perhaps near a front/dryline intersection, should be capable of producing severe hail/winds. Due to nebulous large-scale forcing, too much uncertainty currently exists in the placement and coverage of robust convection to include any severe areas this weekend across the southern Plains, but model trends will be closely monitored.

Differences in the synoptic-scale pattern across the CONUS become more substantial in medium-range guidance from Day 7/Monday onward. Regardless, upper troughing should advance slowly eastward from the western to central CONUS early next week. As this occurs, strengthening mid/upper-level flow should overlap the warm sector and pose a risk for severe thunderstorms. Exactly where the greatest threat will develop remains highly uncertain given current model spread. But, an increasing threat for severe thunderstorms is evident across parts of the southern/central Plains to the MS Valley early next week.

..Gleason.. 06/06/2023

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, June 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, June 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, June 9: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, June 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, June 11: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, June 12: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, June 13: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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