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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Thursday, September 24
Friday, September 25
Saturday, September 26
Sunday, September 27
Monday, September 28
Tuesday, September 29
Wednesday, September 30
Thursday, October 1

Outlook for Thursday, September 24

Outlook Summary

Thunderstorm activity may still pose some risk for producing a tornado this evening across parts of east central and southeast Alabama.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 250038

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorm activity may still pose some risk for producing a tornado this evening across parts of east central and southeast Alabama.

01Z Outlook Update

### Alabama/Georgia

Weak to moderate boundary-layer instability lingers within a narrow plume of higher moisture content (characterized by lower/mid 70s F surface dew points) wrapping into Beta's remnant surface low center migrating northeastward into northern Alabama. This is contributing to the maintenance of a band of convection between Montgomery and Anniston, which could still build southward some while advancing slowly eastward this evening. Stronger southerly flow in the 850 mb layer is in the process of shifting northeastward into drier/potentially cooler/stable air across the southern Appalachians. However, low-level hodographs along the band of convection may still be marginally conducive to continuing low risk for a tornado, at least until lingering boundary-layer instability wanes further later this evening.

Dakotas/northwestern Minnesota

Increasing large-scale ascent and moistening above a southeastward advancing cold front may contribute to weak mid-level destabilization supportive of scattered weak thunderstorm development late this evening into the overnight hours.

..Kerr.. 09/25/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Friday, September 25

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast, and later over a portion of the western Upper Great Lakes area.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241713

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST…AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast, and later over a portion of the western Upper Great Lakes area.

Synopsis

While weak flow aloft will continue to prevail across the southern half of the country, fast/weakly cyclonic westerly flow over the northern Rockies/northern Plains will expand gradually eastward across the upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes area. Within this fast belt of flow, several embedded vorticity maxima will traverse the northern tier of the CONUS. Farther south, a short-wave trough over the Ohio Valley and Mid South region will cross the Appalachians and move into the Southeast states through the period.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift gradually eastward/southeastward across the north-central U.S. with time, and should extend from the Upper Great Lakes to the Colorado Front Range by Saturday morning. Elsewhere, a very weak/remnant low is forecast to drift from Tennessee to the Carolinas through the period.

The Southeast

Modest heating over the Southeast during the day, combined with a moist low-level airmass ahead of a very weak Mid South/southern Appalachians remnant of tropical system Beta, will permit bands of showers and thunderstorms to increase through the day, spreading across Georgia and the Carolinas with time. With ample low-level veering of the flow with height to persist, and some enhancement to the mid-level westerlies in conjunction with short-wave trough aloft, a few stronger/organized updrafts will likely evolve with time. Along with potential for locally gusty winds capable of mainly tree damage, a brief tornadic spin-up or two will also be possible across this region.

Northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan

The eastward advance of a surface cold front, and associated upper short-wave troughing, across the upper Mississippi Valley during the afternoon/evening may support isolated convective development in the northwestern Wisconsin/western Lake Superior vicinity by early evening, while capping is expected to largely suppress convective development with southwestward extent along the cold front.

Where any storm can develop, modest CAPE and sufficient shear suggest potential for updraft intensification – warranting mention of local risk for gusty winds and/or hail – mainly during the evening hours.

..Goss.. 09/24/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook for Saturday, September 26

Outlook Summary

The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Saturday across parts of the Upper Midwest appears too uncertain to include any severe probabilities at this time.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 240726

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Saturday across parts of the Upper Midwest appears too uncertain to include any severe probabilities at this time.

Synopsis and Discussion

Large-scale upper troughing should amplify over the north-central CONUS on Saturday. A strong west-southwesterly mid/upper-level jet will overspread much of the Upper Midwest by Saturday evening. Forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough should also encourage the northeastward development of a surface low across this region through the period. Low-level moisture will likely remain rather limited, which should temper the amount of instability available across the warm sector in WI. Still, strong effective bulk shear will be present owing to the mid/upper-level jet. Current expectations are for storm initiation to be delayed until Saturday evening as lift increases with a strengthening low-level jet. Any storms that form will probably remain elevated, but they could pose some threat for hail. Primary uncertainty remains the best corridor for this elevated storm development. Some guidance suggests storms over northern WI into the U.P. of MI, while other models indicate a better chance over central/eastern WI. Given this uncertainty and the fairly limited instability forecast, will defer possible inclusion of low severe probabilities to a later outlook update.

Elsewhere, any storms that may be ongoing Saturday morning along parts of the East Coast should move offshore through the day, as a weak mid-level trough continues eastward. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across this region.

..Gleason.. 09/24/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Sunday, September 27

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240850 SPC AC 240850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper troughing over the central CONUS is forecast to amplify further on Day 4/Sunday. Large differences in medium-range guidance emerge by early next week regarding the eastward progression of this upper trough. If a slower solution verifies, then organized severe thunderstorms would be possible along/ahead of a cold front across parts of the southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, continuing into portions of the lower MS Valley, Southeast, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic through at least Day 6/Tuesday. However, if a faster eastward movement to the upper trough occurs, then severe potential across these regions should be much less. Given this uncertainty, no severe probabilities appear warranted through the extended forecast period.

..Gleason.. 09/24/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Monday, September 28

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240850 SPC AC 240850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper troughing over the central CONUS is forecast to amplify further on Day 4/Sunday. Large differences in medium-range guidance emerge by early next week regarding the eastward progression of this upper trough. If a slower solution verifies, then organized severe thunderstorms would be possible along/ahead of a cold front across parts of the southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, continuing into portions of the lower MS Valley, Southeast, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic through at least Day 6/Tuesday. However, if a faster eastward movement to the upper trough occurs, then severe potential across these regions should be much less. Given this uncertainty, no severe probabilities appear warranted through the extended forecast period.

..Gleason.. 09/24/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Tuesday, September 29

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240850 SPC AC 240850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper troughing over the central CONUS is forecast to amplify further on Day 4/Sunday. Large differences in medium-range guidance emerge by early next week regarding the eastward progression of this upper trough. If a slower solution verifies, then organized severe thunderstorms would be possible along/ahead of a cold front across parts of the southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, continuing into portions of the lower MS Valley, Southeast, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic through at least Day 6/Tuesday. However, if a faster eastward movement to the upper trough occurs, then severe potential across these regions should be much less. Given this uncertainty, no severe probabilities appear warranted through the extended forecast period.

..Gleason.. 09/24/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Wednesday, September 30

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240850 SPC AC 240850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper troughing over the central CONUS is forecast to amplify further on Day 4/Sunday. Large differences in medium-range guidance emerge by early next week regarding the eastward progression of this upper trough. If a slower solution verifies, then organized severe thunderstorms would be possible along/ahead of a cold front across parts of the southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, continuing into portions of the lower MS Valley, Southeast, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic through at least Day 6/Tuesday. However, if a faster eastward movement to the upper trough occurs, then severe potential across these regions should be much less. Given this uncertainty, no severe probabilities appear warranted through the extended forecast period.

..Gleason.. 09/24/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Thursday, October 1

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240850 SPC AC 240850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Large-scale upper troughing over the central CONUS is forecast to amplify further on Day 4/Sunday. Large differences in medium-range guidance emerge by early next week regarding the eastward progression of this upper trough. If a slower solution verifies, then organized severe thunderstorms would be possible along/ahead of a cold front across parts of the southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, continuing into portions of the lower MS Valley, Southeast, and possibly the Mid-Atlantic through at least Day 6/Tuesday. However, if a faster eastward movement to the upper trough occurs, then severe potential across these regions should be much less. Given this uncertainty, no severe probabilities appear warranted through the extended forecast period.

..Gleason.. 09/24/2020

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Thursday, September 24
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Friday, September 25
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Saturday, September 26
ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, September 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, September 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, September 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, September 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, October 1
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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