Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Sunday, August 19
Monday, August 20
Tuesday, August 21
Wednesday, August 22
Thursday, August 23
Friday, August 24
Saturday, August 25
Sunday, August 26

Outlook for Sunday, August 19

Outlook Summary

Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the south central Plains into Ozark Plateau this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190535

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU

### SUMMARY

Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the south central Plains into Ozark Plateau this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

Synopsis

While the stronger mid-latitude westerlies remain north of the Canadian/U.S. border, much of the U.S. will remain under the influence of a weaker branch of westerlies extending from Pacific Northwest through the Mid Atlantic Coast and adjacent western Atlantic. Within this regime, models indicate one low amplitude wave will gradually progress across and east of the northern Mid Atlantic coast today through tonight. A more amplified upstream wave is forecast to dig southeast of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, before turning eastward across the central Plains, while another wave digs inland of the Oregon/northern California coast.

Guidance is suggestive that the impulse over the interior U.S. may be accompanied by at least modest cyclogenesis. A broad/weak low-level baroclinic zone to the north of the Red River Valley into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity may provide the focus for the developing surface wave, which is forecast to migrate northeastward across the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley by late tonight.

South central Plains/Ozark Plateau vicinity

Although discrepancies exist among the various model output concerning the details of the developing cyclone, strengthening of lower/mid tropospheric wind fields to 30-40+ kt within its warm sector appears possible. Including considerable veering with height, associated vertical shear may become potentially supportive of organized severe weather potential later today through tonight. The extent of this potential, however, remains at least somewhat unclear.

The lack of stronger instability may be one considerable limiting factor. The continuation of ongoing convective development, now spreading east/southeast of the central and southern High Plains, into the day may hinder insolation and associated warm sector boundary layer destabilization. And mid-level lapse rates probably will not be especially steep.

However, in the wake, or on the southern periphery, of lingering early day convection, guidance is suggestive that moderate mixed-layer CAPE may develop across central and eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas by late this afternoon or evening. Coupled with forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection and perhaps differential cyclonic vorticity advection, discrete storms (possibly including a couple of supercells), and a few small upscale growing convective clusters and/or bands, may evolve. Some of this will probably be accompanied by a risk for severe wind and hail. An isolated tornado or two might not be out of the question.

..Kerr/Leitman.. 08/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Monday, August 20

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the Lower/Middle Mississippi River Valley to Tennessee Valley as well as the Northern Rockies.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190556

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the Lower/Middle Mississippi River Valley to Tennessee Valley as well as the Northern Rockies.

Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley to Tennessee/Ohio Valleys

On Monday, a shortwave trough will continue to spread east-northeastward over the middle Mississippi River Valley and Midwest. Even as this system begins to lose amplitude, a belt of seasonally strong low/mid tropospheric winds will overspread parts of the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley into the Lower Ohio Valley. The potential for relatively widespread cloud cover and precipitation still casts uncertainty regarding the overall magnitude/extent of Monday's severe risk. This uncertainty precludes a categorical Slight Risk, although one could ultimately be warranted somewhere across the Mid-South and middle Mississippi Valley vicinity, possibly as far north as portions of Illinois.

Regardless, potentially influenced by differential heating and outflows, storms should diurnally redevelop and intensify across the Mid-South region along, or more so, ahead of a cold front amidst moist/confluent low-level flow during the afternoon. The exact degree of destabilization is especially more uncertain with northward extent into the Midwest/Ohio Valley, but bands of storms could develop near the front/surface low during the afternoon pending sufficient destabilization in the wake of early-day convection. Overall, flow fields generally characterized by 30-35 kt effective shear magnitudes would support sustained multicells and a few supercells capable of primarily wind damage Monday afternoon and evening, although some hail and tornado risk may exist as well.

Northern Rockies

Forcing for ascent and moderately strong winds aloft will accompany a deamplifying shortwave trough over the region. Coincident with ample vertical shear (40+ kt effective), it appears that sufficient moisture and buoyancy will exist over the region for the possibility of some stronger storms capable of hail and/or downbursts Monday afternoon and early evening.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal

..Guyer.. 08/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 21

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday especially across portions of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 190729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday especially across portions of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States.

Appalachians/Upper Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States

Although the primary surface cyclogenesis will be focused north of the International border, a semi-amplified belt of seasonally strong westerlies will overspread much of the region on Tuesday coincident with an eastward-moving cold front. While the possibility of relatively widespread early-day convection and cloud cover limits confidence in appreciable destabilization, relatively strong low-level shear and upwards of 35-40 kt effective shear suggests the potential for sustained multicells and some supercells where adequate diurnally enhanced destabilization occurs. This currently appears most probable across the north-central Appalachians and upper Ohio River Valley vicinity. That said, at least isolated severe storms may occur as far south as the Carolinas under a more modestly strong flow regime.

Central High Plains

At least a few severe thunderstorms may occur across the region Tuesday afternoon into evening. This will be in association with enhanced moist low-level upslope flow to the north of a southern High Plains surface low and in conjunction with a moderately strong belt of westerlies to the north of the southern High Plains-centered upper-level ridge.

..Guyer.. 08/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 22

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190851 SPC AC 190851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Any severe potential over the CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday should remain marginal/localized, especially since a cold front should generally exit the coastal Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas relatively early on Wednesday.

It still appears that at least some potential for severe storms may increase across parts of the north-central Plains and Upper Midwest by Day 5/Thursday into Day 6/Friday. This will be as low-level moisture returns into these regions in advance of an eastward-moving shortwave trough and associated belt of modest strength westerlies. Guidance variability and perceived modest overall severe potential precludes any 15% severe risk areas at this time.

..Guyer.. 08/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Thursday, August 23

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190851 SPC AC 190851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Any severe potential over the CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday should remain marginal/localized, especially since a cold front should generally exit the coastal Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas relatively early on Wednesday.

It still appears that at least some potential for severe storms may increase across parts of the north-central Plains and Upper Midwest by Day 5/Thursday into Day 6/Friday. This will be as low-level moisture returns into these regions in advance of an eastward-moving shortwave trough and associated belt of modest strength westerlies. Guidance variability and perceived modest overall severe potential precludes any 15% severe risk areas at this time.

..Guyer.. 08/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Friday, August 24

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190851 SPC AC 190851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Any severe potential over the CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday should remain marginal/localized, especially since a cold front should generally exit the coastal Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas relatively early on Wednesday.

It still appears that at least some potential for severe storms may increase across parts of the north-central Plains and Upper Midwest by Day 5/Thursday into Day 6/Friday. This will be as low-level moisture returns into these regions in advance of an eastward-moving shortwave trough and associated belt of modest strength westerlies. Guidance variability and perceived modest overall severe potential precludes any 15% severe risk areas at this time.

..Guyer.. 08/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Saturday, August 25

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190851 SPC AC 190851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Any severe potential over the CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday should remain marginal/localized, especially since a cold front should generally exit the coastal Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas relatively early on Wednesday.

It still appears that at least some potential for severe storms may increase across parts of the north-central Plains and Upper Midwest by Day 5/Thursday into Day 6/Friday. This will be as low-level moisture returns into these regions in advance of an eastward-moving shortwave trough and associated belt of modest strength westerlies. Guidance variability and perceived modest overall severe potential precludes any 15% severe risk areas at this time.

..Guyer.. 08/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, August 26

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190851 SPC AC 190851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Any severe potential over the CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday should remain marginal/localized, especially since a cold front should generally exit the coastal Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas relatively early on Wednesday.

It still appears that at least some potential for severe storms may increase across parts of the north-central Plains and Upper Midwest by Day 5/Thursday into Day 6/Friday. This will be as low-level moisture returns into these regions in advance of an eastward-moving shortwave trough and associated belt of modest strength westerlies. Guidance variability and perceived modest overall severe potential precludes any 15% severe risk areas at this time.

..Guyer.. 08/19/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Sunday, August 19
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Monday, August 20
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, August 21
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, August 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, August 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, August 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, August 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, August 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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