Severe Weather Outlook

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Tuesday, October 15
Wednesday, October 16
Thursday, October 17
Friday, October 18
Saturday, October 19
Sunday, October 20
Monday, October 21

Outlook for Tuesday, October 15

Outlook Summary

A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening across parts of southeast Oklahoma, western Arkansas and northeast Texas. Isolated strong to locally severe storms are also possible across the Deep South.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150528

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…WESTERN ARKANSAS…NORTHERN TEXAS…EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHERN ALABAMA…SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA…AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

### SUMMARY

A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening across parts of southeast Oklahoma, western Arkansas and northeast Texas. Isolated strong to locally severe storms are also possible across the Deep South.

Synopsis

An upper-level trough will progress eastward out of the northern Plains and amplify across the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley regions. At the surface, a cold front will surge southward into the southern Plains, reaching the Red River by late afternoon.

Southeast Oklahoma and north Texas

Dewpoints ahead of the surging cold front are expected to reach the upper 60s F to low 70s F, supporting 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Strengthening mid/upper-level flow in response to the amplifying trough to the north will foster deep-layer shear supporting organized storms and perhaps a supercell or two. Large hail will be possible given sufficient mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs. While low-level flow/shear is not expected to be overly strong, a brief window will exist for a tornado with any initial supercell development. Strong linear forcing from the advancing front will likely cause some upscale growth with isolated strong/severe wind gusts becoming the main threat.

Gulf Coast Vicinity

A weak warm advection regime along a quasi-stationary boundary will lead to scattered thunderstorm development from southern MS/AL into portions of the FL Panhandle and adjacent southwestern GA. Ample cloud cover is likely which will limit daytime heating across much of the region. Adequate low/mid-level flow is forecast such that isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with any of the stronger storms, despite very poor lapse rates within the column.

..Wendt/Smith.. 10/15/2019

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 16

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 150443

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

Synopsis

The mid/upper level low over the Great Lakes and attendant trough extending southward to the northern Gulf Coast will lift east/northeast Wednesday, with the upper low centered over southern New England/NY the trough offshore the Mid-Atlantic by 12z Thursday. As this occurs, an upper ridge will amplify as it tracks across the Rockies and into the Plains ahead of another upper trough deepening along the Pacific coast by the end of the period. A surface low near coastal SC and a rain-cooled airmass across the Gulf coast states will result in the effective cold front extending from the SC coastal low westward to southern LA to near the upper/middle TX coast and westward across south TX. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the front Wednesday morning, but generally poor thermodynamics coupled weak forcing will preclude severe concerns before the front moves offshore the Gulf coast by midday. The front will sag southward across the northern/central FL peninsula, but flow parallel to the boundary at all levels will not support sustained updrafts in the absence of stronger low level convergence and little upper support.

The coastal SC low will rapidly intensify into an Nor'easter and approach the New England coast by Thursday morning. As this occurs, the northern extent of the cold front located over the upper OH River valley will push eastward across much of the Northeast and offshore the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorm activity will be confined from the central Appalachians vicinity northeastward along the I-95 corridor. Weak instability/poor lapse rates and marginal effective shear will limit severe potential. Some strong gusts are possible near the coast given the strong background flow as the coastal low rapidly intensifies. However, these strong winds are not expected to be related to convection, precluding the need for severe probs.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None

..Leitman.. 10/15/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

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Outlook for Thursday, October 17

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140840 SPC AC 140840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather concerns are not expected on Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. An upper-level ridge will move across the Plains on Thursday and then the eastern U.S. on Friday. In the wake of the ridge, a weak trough will traverse the Plains on Friday within broader cyclonic upper-level flow across the western two-thirds of the country. Modest boundary layer moisture spreading northward across the Plains ahead of a weak cold front on Friday could be sufficient for overnight thunderstorms, but weak shear and limited instability will preclude severe concerns.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon – Southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley Vicinity

By Day 6/Sat, an upper trough will begin to deepen across the western U.S., resulting in a broad area of intensifying southwesterly flow across the Plains into the Midwest through early next week as the trough shifts eastward. Thunderstorm chances will increase across the southern/central Plains by Saturday night as a lee cyclone develops over eastern CO. At this time, severe potential Saturday night appears low as northward moisture return is still occurring with potential for elevated convection and capping concerns. By Day 7/Sun the surface low is expected to strengthen and lift northeast across the central Plains toward the Upper Midwest. Strong warm advection is forecast to result in a broad warm sector from eastern portions of the central/southern Plains eastward across much of the Midwest and southern U.S. into Day 8/Mon. At the same time, a very strong low/midlevel jet will overspread the region ahead of a surface cold front. While severe storms appear likely on Sunday and/or Monday, forecast guidance differs enough on the timing of these features. Thus, uncertainty is too great to pinpoint where severe storms may occur and on which day to include probabilities at this time. Trends will be monitored closely for possible inclusion of severe probabilities in the coming days.

..Leitman.. 10/14/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Friday, October 18

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140840 SPC AC 140840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather concerns are not expected on Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. An upper-level ridge will move across the Plains on Thursday and then the eastern U.S. on Friday. In the wake of the ridge, a weak trough will traverse the Plains on Friday within broader cyclonic upper-level flow across the western two-thirds of the country. Modest boundary layer moisture spreading northward across the Plains ahead of a weak cold front on Friday could be sufficient for overnight thunderstorms, but weak shear and limited instability will preclude severe concerns.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon – Southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley Vicinity

By Day 6/Sat, an upper trough will begin to deepen across the western U.S., resulting in a broad area of intensifying southwesterly flow across the Plains into the Midwest through early next week as the trough shifts eastward. Thunderstorm chances will increase across the southern/central Plains by Saturday night as a lee cyclone develops over eastern CO. At this time, severe potential Saturday night appears low as northward moisture return is still occurring with potential for elevated convection and capping concerns. By Day 7/Sun the surface low is expected to strengthen and lift northeast across the central Plains toward the Upper Midwest. Strong warm advection is forecast to result in a broad warm sector from eastern portions of the central/southern Plains eastward across much of the Midwest and southern U.S. into Day 8/Mon. At the same time, a very strong low/midlevel jet will overspread the region ahead of a surface cold front. While severe storms appear likely on Sunday and/or Monday, forecast guidance differs enough on the timing of these features. Thus, uncertainty is too great to pinpoint where severe storms may occur and on which day to include probabilities at this time. Trends will be monitored closely for possible inclusion of severe probabilities in the coming days.

..Leitman.. 10/14/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook for Saturday, October 19

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140840 SPC AC 140840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather concerns are not expected on Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. An upper-level ridge will move across the Plains on Thursday and then the eastern U.S. on Friday. In the wake of the ridge, a weak trough will traverse the Plains on Friday within broader cyclonic upper-level flow across the western two-thirds of the country. Modest boundary layer moisture spreading northward across the Plains ahead of a weak cold front on Friday could be sufficient for overnight thunderstorms, but weak shear and limited instability will preclude severe concerns.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon – Southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley Vicinity

By Day 6/Sat, an upper trough will begin to deepen across the western U.S., resulting in a broad area of intensifying southwesterly flow across the Plains into the Midwest through early next week as the trough shifts eastward. Thunderstorm chances will increase across the southern/central Plains by Saturday night as a lee cyclone develops over eastern CO. At this time, severe potential Saturday night appears low as northward moisture return is still occurring with potential for elevated convection and capping concerns. By Day 7/Sun the surface low is expected to strengthen and lift northeast across the central Plains toward the Upper Midwest. Strong warm advection is forecast to result in a broad warm sector from eastern portions of the central/southern Plains eastward across much of the Midwest and southern U.S. into Day 8/Mon. At the same time, a very strong low/midlevel jet will overspread the region ahead of a surface cold front. While severe storms appear likely on Sunday and/or Monday, forecast guidance differs enough on the timing of these features. Thus, uncertainty is too great to pinpoint where severe storms may occur and on which day to include probabilities at this time. Trends will be monitored closely for possible inclusion of severe probabilities in the coming days.

..Leitman.. 10/14/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Sunday, October 20

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140840 SPC AC 140840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather concerns are not expected on Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. An upper-level ridge will move across the Plains on Thursday and then the eastern U.S. on Friday. In the wake of the ridge, a weak trough will traverse the Plains on Friday within broader cyclonic upper-level flow across the western two-thirds of the country. Modest boundary layer moisture spreading northward across the Plains ahead of a weak cold front on Friday could be sufficient for overnight thunderstorms, but weak shear and limited instability will preclude severe concerns.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon – Southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley Vicinity

By Day 6/Sat, an upper trough will begin to deepen across the western U.S., resulting in a broad area of intensifying southwesterly flow across the Plains into the Midwest through early next week as the trough shifts eastward. Thunderstorm chances will increase across the southern/central Plains by Saturday night as a lee cyclone develops over eastern CO. At this time, severe potential Saturday night appears low as northward moisture return is still occurring with potential for elevated convection and capping concerns. By Day 7/Sun the surface low is expected to strengthen and lift northeast across the central Plains toward the Upper Midwest. Strong warm advection is forecast to result in a broad warm sector from eastern portions of the central/southern Plains eastward across much of the Midwest and southern U.S. into Day 8/Mon. At the same time, a very strong low/midlevel jet will overspread the region ahead of a surface cold front. While severe storms appear likely on Sunday and/or Monday, forecast guidance differs enough on the timing of these features. Thus, uncertainty is too great to pinpoint where severe storms may occur and on which day to include probabilities at this time. Trends will be monitored closely for possible inclusion of severe probabilities in the coming days.

..Leitman.. 10/14/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

Outlook for Monday, October 21

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140840 SPC AC 140840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather concerns are not expected on Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. An upper-level ridge will move across the Plains on Thursday and then the eastern U.S. on Friday. In the wake of the ridge, a weak trough will traverse the Plains on Friday within broader cyclonic upper-level flow across the western two-thirds of the country. Modest boundary layer moisture spreading northward across the Plains ahead of a weak cold front on Friday could be sufficient for overnight thunderstorms, but weak shear and limited instability will preclude severe concerns.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon – Southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley Vicinity

By Day 6/Sat, an upper trough will begin to deepen across the western U.S., resulting in a broad area of intensifying southwesterly flow across the Plains into the Midwest through early next week as the trough shifts eastward. Thunderstorm chances will increase across the southern/central Plains by Saturday night as a lee cyclone develops over eastern CO. At this time, severe potential Saturday night appears low as northward moisture return is still occurring with potential for elevated convection and capping concerns. By Day 7/Sun the surface low is expected to strengthen and lift northeast across the central Plains toward the Upper Midwest. Strong warm advection is forecast to result in a broad warm sector from eastern portions of the central/southern Plains eastward across much of the Midwest and southern U.S. into Day 8/Mon. At the same time, a very strong low/midlevel jet will overspread the region ahead of a surface cold front. While severe storms appear likely on Sunday and/or Monday, forecast guidance differs enough on the timing of these features. Thus, uncertainty is too great to pinpoint where severe storms may occur and on which day to include probabilities at this time. Trends will be monitored closely for possible inclusion of severe probabilities in the coming days.

..Leitman.. 10/14/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

 

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 15
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Wednesday, October 16
ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, October 17
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, October 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, October 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, October 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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