Severe Weather Outlook

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Severe Weather Watches Overview

Watch data currently updates every 15 minutes.

Tornado Watch #0501 for The Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Northeast Wisconsin, Lake Michigan, Lake Superior

A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0504 for East Central Iowa, Northwest Illinois, Northeast Missouri

Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0505 for Northern Lower Michigan, Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, Lake Superior

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

↑ back to the list of watches ↑

Tornado Watch #0501

Locations Affected

The Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Northeast Wisconsin

Lake Michigan

Lake Superior

Tornado Watch Summary

Scattered supercell development is expected late this afternoon into early tonight across north central/northeast Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The storm environment favors the potential for a few tornadoes, including a couple of strong (EF2+) tornadoes, as well as isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter. As storms cluster by late evening, the threat for wind damage will increase, with a few significant (75+ mph) gusts possible.

Severe Weather Threats

A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible

Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible

Tornado Watch Details

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  The Upper Peninsula of Michigan
  Northeast Wisconsin
  Lake Michigan
  Lake Superior

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected late this
afternoon into early tonight across north central/northeast
Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.  The storm
environment favors the potential for a few tornadoes, including a
couple of strong (EF2+) tornadoes, as well as isolated very large
hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter.  As storms cluster by late
evening, the threat for wind damage will increase, with a few
significant (75+ mph) gusts possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Marquette MI
to 45 miles west southwest of Green Bay WI. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 500...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 30035.

...Thompson

↑ back to the list of watches ↑

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0504

Locations Affected

East Central Iowa

Northwest Illinois

Northeast Missouri

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Summary

A fast-moving bowing line of thunderstorms over eastern Iowa will track southeastward across the watch area this evening, with a risk of severe wind gusts and hail.

Severe Weather Threats

Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely

Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Details

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
540 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  East Central Iowa
  Northwest Illinois
  Northeast Missouri

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 540 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
    mph likely
  Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A fast-moving bowing line of thunderstorms over eastern
Iowa will track southeastward across the watch area this evening,
with a risk of severe wind gusts and hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles either side of a line from 45 miles north northwest of
Burlington IA to 15 miles east southeast of Peoria IL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 500...WW 501...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30035.

...Hart

↑ back to the list of watches ↑

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0505

Locations Affected

Northern Lower Michigan

Lake Huron

Lake Michigan

Lake Superior

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Summary

Widely scattered intense storms over Upper Michigan and northern Wisconsin will track southeastward into the watch area this evening, posing a risk of damaging winds and hail. A tornado or two is possible.

Severe Weather Threats

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

A tornado or two possible

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Details

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
750 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern Lower Michigan
  Lake Huron
  Lake Michigan
  Lake Superior

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 750 PM
  until 200 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Widely scattered intense storms over Upper Michigan and
northern Wisconsin will track southeastward into the watch area this
evening, posing a risk of damaging winds and hail.  A tornado or two
is possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles southeast of
Manistee MI to 40 miles north northeast of Pellston MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 500...WW 501...WW 504...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28030.

...Hart

National Risk Overview

Monday, July 20: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, July 21: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 45%
Wednesday, July 22: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, July 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, July 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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