Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, February 21

Outlook Summary

The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the lower Mississippi Valley region eastward along the Gulf Coastal Plain, and from northern California to parts of Wyoming and the northern High Plains.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 211944

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
from the lower Mississippi Valley region eastward along the Gulf
Coastal Plain, and from northern California to parts of Wyoming and
the northern High Plains.

...Gulf Coast...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue in two distinct
regimes -- one in the warm conveyor crossing the Florida panhandle
and another associated with the cold core mid-level circulation over
the lower Mississippi Valley. The only change with this outlook is
the removal of thunder for locations to the north/west of the
forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level low.

..Picca/Broyles.. 02/21/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

...Lower Mississippi Valley and Eastern Gulf Coast...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along with and in advance of an
upper low that will move eastward along the Gulf Coast this
afternoon and tonight. Cold temperatures aloft will support some
small hail across portions of southern LA this afternoon as modest
heating/destabilization occurs, though low tropopause heights in the
vicinity of the upper cyclone will limit the depth of convection and
preclude any substantial severe hail risk. 

...Northern CA/Southern OR into the Great Basin/Northern Rockies...
As an upper trough approaches the Pacific Coast, generally weak
convection is expected across a broad area from the northern
CA/southern OR coast eastward into the Great Basin and Northern
Rockies, with isolated thunderstorms possible where convection
becomes sufficiently deep. Somewhat greater instability across
portions of the northern CA coast into the northern Sacramento
Valley may support some thunderstorms capable of small hail and
locally gusty winds, though generally weak effective shear
magnitudes should limit storm organization. 

...Portions of the Northern High Plains...
A shortwave trough over portions of the Northwest will move quickly
into the northern High Plains this afternoon and evening. Ahead of
this feature, weak but sufficient instability will support
fast-moving clusters of convection later this afternoon and tonight
from central/eastern MT into ND. Relatively strong low/midlevel flow
and effective shear may support locally gusty winds and perhaps some
small hail with the strongest of these clusters.

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, February 21
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Wednesday, February 22
ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, February 23
ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, February 24
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, February 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, February 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, February 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, February 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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