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Outlook for Friday, February 24

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210928
SPC AC 210928

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Valid 241200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The concern for severe weather during the Friday-Tuesday period will
likely concentrate on Friday (Day 4) across the OH Valley and
southern Great Lakes regions.  A strong mid-level speed maximum is
forecast to strengthen and move over the aforementioned regions on
Friday.  There remains considerable model spread in the timing and
placement of the surface low track.  To the south of a warm front
and east of an eastward-sweeping cold front, a marginally buoyant
warm sector is forecast to develop and result in a low CAPE/high
shear environment.  The primary threat with the more intense
thunderstorms that develop will be damaging winds.  By Saturday (Day
5), the cold front will move east across the lower Great Lakes and
Mid-Atlantic states with surface high pressure building over the MS
Valley and Gulf Coast states.  Models indicate modifying Gulf
moisture may return northward on Monday and Tuesday (Days 7-8) in
response to lee troughing as another in a series of mid-level
troughs develop over the western states.

..Smith.. 02/21/2017

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, February 21
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Wednesday, February 22
ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, February 23
ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, February 24
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, February 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, February 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, February 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, February 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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