You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210928 SPC AC 210928 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... The concern for severe weather during the Friday-Tuesday period will likely concentrate on Friday (Day 4) across the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions. A strong mid-level speed maximum is forecast to strengthen and move over the aforementioned regions on Friday. There remains considerable model spread in the timing and placement of the surface low track. To the south of a warm front and east of an eastward-sweeping cold front, a marginally buoyant warm sector is forecast to develop and result in a low CAPE/high shear environment. The primary threat with the more intense thunderstorms that develop will be damaging winds. By Saturday (Day 5), the cold front will move east across the lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states with surface high pressure building over the MS Valley and Gulf Coast states. Models indicate modifying Gulf moisture may return northward on Monday and Tuesday (Days 7-8) in response to lee troughing as another in a series of mid-level troughs develop over the western states. ..Smith.. 02/21/2017 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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