Widely scattered severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging gusts are expected over the central High Plains. Severe storms capable of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two are also forecast for parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.
SPC AC 262000 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SLIGHT RISK... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE OHIO VALLEY SLIGHT RISK... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging gusts are expected over the central High Plains. Severe storms capable of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two are also forecast for parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. ...Discussion... The only changes this forecast update are the following: 1) Have added a small 5% tornado risk and significant hail area over parts of northeastern CO with developing storms near the Palmer Divide. Hodographs are forecast to enlarge this afternoon which may lead to an area with a slightly higher tornado risk than the remaining portion of the central High Plains. 2) Added a small significant hail area for portions of central IL to the east of ongoing storms. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. ..Smith.. 05/26/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/ ...IL/IN/OH... Morning satellite loops show a well-defined MCV over eastern IA. Strong heating/destabilization is occurring along the southeast flank of this system, with dewpoints climbing into the 60s. By mid afternoon, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg are expected as far northeast as from north-central IL into central IN and western OH. Thunderstorms are likely to develop ahead of the MCV, with 12z CAM solutions strongly favoring a bowing MCS moving across central IN into western OH. While damaging winds are likely the main threat, increasing low-level vertical shear by late afternoon may also contribute to some risk of a few tornadoes. The activity should weaken as it moves into more stable air over central OH this evening. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY/Western NE/Western KS... Models remain consistent in the development of widely scattered supercell storms from southeast WY into much of eastern CO this afternoon and evening. Low-level winds will be southeasterly, providing some upslope component. However, these low-level wind fields will be rather weak suggesting that large hail is the main threat. It appears unlikely that organized storms will build as far east into central KS as earlier forecast. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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