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Outlook for Saturday, April 21

Outlook Summary

Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas into western Louisiana Saturday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 201727

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX
TO SOUTHWESTERN LA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of Texas into western Louisiana Saturday.

...Central TX into western LA...
A mid- to upper-level low and associated trough will move southeast
from the central and southern High Plains to the Ark-La-Tex region
by daybreak Sunday.  An arctic front over the southern High Plains
will overtake a Pacific cold front during the day across
north-central TX and the consolidated boundary will progress
southeast to western LA and the shelf waters of the Upper TX Coast. 
Widespread clouds and rain are forecast through the early part of
the day to the north of I-20 in north-central and northeast TX. 
There is considerable uncertainty to the degree of destabilization
that may occur in wake of early-day rain.  Some model guidance shows
very little destabilization whereas the 12Z run of the GFS is by far
the most aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer across
north-central TX.  With those instability concerns mentioned, it
appears the north extent of 60-65 dewpoints will advect into
east-central TX by afternoon and only weak instability will develop.
A couple of stronger storms are possible with an isolated hail/wind
risk.  This activity will grow upscale along the front and push into
east and southeast TX after dark.  A lingering threat for a damaging
gust may remain into parts of southeast TX and southwest LA
overnight Saturday night.

..Smith.. 04/20/2018

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, April 20
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, April 21
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, April 22
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, April 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, April 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, April 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, April 26
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, April 27
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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