Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, July 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, July 16	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, July 17	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, July 18	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, July 19	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, July 20	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130732 SPC AC 130732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the northern tier of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. A couple of shortwave impulses will migrate through westerly flow from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes vicinity on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu and again during the weekend. These features could support some severe thunderstorm potential for parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, particularly on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu as a sagging cold front stalls over the Great Lakes. However, prior convection and large spread among various medium range guidance regarding timing and location of these somewhat subtle features precludes severe probabilities at this time.

Strong upper ridging will develop across the south-central and southeast U.S. beginning around Day 6/Fri. Weak deep-layer flow beneath the upper ridge and lack of large-scale forcing will limit severe potential from the southern Plains into the Southeast.

..Leitman.. 07/13/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, July 13: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Monday, July 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, July 15: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, July 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, July 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, July 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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