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Outlook for Sunday, July 13

Outlook Summary

Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111926

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS…AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK

### SUMMARY

Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal.

VA northward into NY

Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA.

..Jewell.. 07/11/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, July 11: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, July 12: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 13: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, July 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, July 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, July 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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