Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Wednesday, November 12

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, November 8	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, November 9	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, November 10	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, November 11	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, November 12	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050855 SPC AC 050855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Wed Nov 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Major amplification of the eastern CONUS upper trough appears likely this weekend, inducing more southerly cyclogenesis across the North-Central States into the Northeast. A pronounced surface anticyclone will drive an extensive ridge across the central states, aiding in progressive cold front movement across the Southeast late Saturday into Sunday. Ahead of this front, some potential for severe could yet evolve on D5/Sunday as flow fields strengthen atop a plume of seasonably rich surface dew points along the eastern Gulf and South Atlantic Coasts. However, most guidance indicates a fairly dry frontal passage in this region, amid low RH/weak lapse rates in the mid-levels.

With a very amplified trough east/ridge west by D6/Monday and a continental airmass overspreading much of the Gulf, severe potential should be minimal early next week.

..Grams.. 11/05/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, November 5: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, November 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, November 7: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, November 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, November 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, November 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, November 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, November 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.