Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, November 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, November 12	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, November 13	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, November 14	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, November 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, November 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090847 SPC AC 090847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Modified return flow will slowly build across the western Gulf mid to late week, with a maritime tropical airmass probably reaching parts of the TX Gulf Coast next weekend. As mentioned by WPC's EPD, run-to-run model variability remains high with a large amount of spread in the potential evolution of a broad upper trough approaching the West Coast on D5/Thursday. This is well illustrated by the change in SPC-CSU GEFS-ML probabilistic guidance over the past 24 hours for D7/Saturday – from a mesoscale 5% area in the Mid-MS Valley in yesterday's D8 to a full-latitude 5% from the Rio Grande to the Great Lakes, along with broad 15% and 30% highlights from parts of TX/LA to the Mid-MS Valley. While its parent 00Z GFS appears conducive to severe, over what would likely be a subset of these large highlights, this latest run lacks any semblance of continuity. In addition, other models, such as the EC-AIFS suggest a closed, cutoff low may just be in the process of moving onshore on D7/Saturday, compared to the progressive, full-latitude trough over the Great Plains in this GFS run. For this forecast, will upgrade to Predictability Too Low for D7/Saturday and extend into D8/Sunday for indications of possible severe, probably focused in the South-Central States, within a low predictability pattern.

..Grams.. 11/09/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, November 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, November 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, November 11: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, November 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, November 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, November 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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