Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Sunday, January 25

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, January 21	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, January 22	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, January 23	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, January 24	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, January 25	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180845 SPC AC 180845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and severe potential is low.

Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the end of the forecast period. However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now.

..Leitman.. 01/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, January 18: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, January 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, January 20: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, January 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, January 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, January 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, January 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.