Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, March 3	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, March 4	15%
Day 6	Thursday, March 5	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, March 6	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, March 7	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280952 SPC AC 280952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5

On Tuesday, a mid-level trough will move eastward across the Desert Southwest, as southwesterly flow remains in place over the southern Plains. As the trough approaches Tuesday night, scattered elevated thunderstorms will be possible from the Red River northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. From Tuesday night into Wednesday, a moist airmass will spread northward from east-central Texas into the Arklatex and Ozarks. Thunderstorm development will be possible near the boundary from central Oklahoma into southern Missouri during the day on Wednesday, and further southeast across the warm sector in the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts continue to show moderate instability ahead of the front. In addition, a mid-level jet streak is forecast to pass through the southern Plains during the afternoon, creating deep-layer shear sufficient for severe storms. Supercells with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible. Model solutions are in better agreement this run, suggesting the severe threat will be a bit further east than was previously forecast. For this reason, the severe threat area has been adjusted eastward towards the Ark-La-Tex.

Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8

On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move through the mid Mississippi Valley, as the cold front advances southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible near the front during the day into the evening. Deep-layer shear and instability are forecast to be somewhat limited, which should keep any severe threat marginal.

From Thursday night into Friday, southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen over the south-central states. In response, moisture advection will likely continue over the southern Plains as moderate instability re-develops across much of the southern Plains. Scattered thunderstorms should form over parts of this airmass Thursday night from west-central Texas north-northeastward into parts of the central Plains. The potential for storm development should continue into Friday along the northern edge of the moist airmass from north-central Texas northeastward into the Ozarks. Although a severe threat could develop over parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks Friday afternoon and evening, there is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to variance among model solutions.

On Saturday, am amplified upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western U.S., as mid-level flow becomes south-southwesterly from the Gulf Coast States into the mid Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass is forecast over much of the Gulf Coast states, where scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the day. Although a severe threat could develop during the day, uncertainty is high concerning the placement of a more concentrated severe threat area.

..Broyles.. 02/28/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, February 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, March 1: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, March 2: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, March 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, March 4: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, March 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, March 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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