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Outlook for Saturday, March 7

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are possible in the upper Ohio Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 5%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 072037

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY

CORRECTED FOR LINE PLACEMENT ERROR

SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are possible in the upper Ohio Valley.

20z Update

No major changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Main edits with this update were to remove probabilities behind the main lines of storms across the Northeast and from the Mid-South into the Southern Plains.

Across the Northeast, a broken line of storms continues northeastward, with a few leading line supercell structures ongoing. The environment ahead of this line continues to destabilize with daytime heating in combination with continued strong flow aloft promoting an uptick in storm organization. See MCD#167 for more information.

From the Ohio Valley to Mid-South the Gulf States and into the far eastern Southern Plains, a line of storms continues southeastward this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of this line within the warm sector. The environment ahead of this line is very moist and unstable. Further south, there is some displacement from the strongest winds aloft, though deep layer shear remains favorable. See MCD#168 for more information.

See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/

Ohio Valley to Western Pennsylvania/New York

A loosely organized linear band of currently non-strong thunderstorms, which is effectively augmenting the cold front, continues generally eastward at midday toward Lake Erie/central Ohio and across northern Kentucky. Ample insolation is occurring per visible satellite ahead of this convection across eastern portions of Kentucky/Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, with surface dewpoints generally climbing through the upper 50s F. This scenario will quickly erode remaining convective inhibition, with thunderstorms expected to increase and intensify through mid-afternoon.

As storms develop/mature, strong cyclonically influenced flow aloft (45+ kt effective shear) will support both supercells and well-organized/fast-moving clusters in the presence of a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet, with notable 50-65 kt winds around 3km AGL/700 mb. These storms will be capable of scattered severe/damaging winds as they move quickly east-northeastward across the region. The potential also exists for line-embedded and/or supercell tornadoes given the degree of 0-2km AGL shear/SRH. This convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it moves into the higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a much less unstable airmass.

Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South

At late morning, extensive linear bands of convection are principally located near the southeastward-advancing cold front from the Mid-South/Memphis vicinity southwestward to the ArkLaTex and central Texas, with some stronger/occasional hail-capable post-frontal elevated convection noted across parts of the Edwards Plateau and Low Rolling Plains. Damaging winds will remain the most common hazard across the Mid-South/parts of Kentucky and ArkLaMiss vicinity as convection moves/develops into a gradually destabilizing air mass regionally.

Potential for supercells is more apparent across parts of Texas, where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly enhanced mid/upper-level flow, and related deep-layer shear, will support the potential for primarily large hail. This supercell hail potential should be maximized across south-central Texas potentially including parts of the Hill County/Brush Country toward the Rio Grande.

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, March 7: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, March 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, March 9: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, March 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, March 11: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, March 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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