Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, March 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, March 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, March 13	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, March 14	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, March 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, March 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090831 SPC AC 090831

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thu

Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent.

Days 5-8/Fri-Mon

Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, March 9: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, March 10: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, March 11: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, March 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, March 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, March 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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