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Outlook for Monday, March 9

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 071931

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.

Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley

To the south of the primary belt of midlevel westerlies extending across the northern CONUS, a low-amplitude impulse and accompanying speed max will overspread the lower MS Valley during the afternoon. Here, steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread deep/rich boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 60s dewpoints). This should yield weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by the afternoon. Given the low-amplitude nature of the midlevel wave and lack of any substantial low-level fronts, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. However, around 50 kt of deep-layer shear and sufficient surface-based buoyancy will favor organized storms to include the potential for supercells. The primary concern with any stronger storms that can develop will be large hail and damaging gusts, though some tornado risk is also possible. A corridor of greater severe potential is possible (depending on the degree of diurnal heating and mesoscale ascent), though confidence for an upgrade is too low at this time.

..Weinman.. 03/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, March 7: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, March 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, March 9: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, March 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, March 11: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Thursday, March 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, March 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, March 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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