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Outlook for Wednesday, September 19

Outlook Summary

A couple of severe storms may occur from the central High Plains northeast to southwest Minnesota, and a severe storm or two may also develop over parts of Wyoming.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 180559

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA VICINITY

### SUMMARY

A couple of severe storms may occur from the central High Plains northeast to southwest Minnesota, and a severe storm or two may also develop over parts of Wyoming.

Synopsis

A progressive upper pattern is progged over the U.S. Wednesday, as a trough – initially centered over the West Coast states – will advance across the Intermountain West and eventually nose toward the High Plains. Meanwhile, a downstream ridge will spread from the central U.S. across much of the eastern half of the country through the period.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the East, with a wavy/west-to-east frontal zone stretching from the central Plains/mid-Missouri Valley into the Midwest. Meanwhile in the West, a cold front will cross the Rockies/Intermountain region.

Parts of Wyoming and northeast Colorado east to southwest Minnesota

As the western upper trough advances across the Rockies, a central High Plains lee-side surface low is expected to deepen through the day. During the evening and into the overnight hours, this low is progged to begin shifting northeastward across Kansas and eventually across Nebraska, along the pre-existing baroclinic zone lying across this region. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will begin to sharpen across Nebraska and Kansas, and westward/northwestward into Wyoming.

Ahead of this low/front within the free warm sector, the boundary layer should remain largely capped. However, ascent focused near and just to the cool side of the front – especially later in the period as the western upper trough continues its advance – may support isolated storm development, from eastern Colorado northeast to southwest Minnesota. Separately, storms may also form across portions of Wyoming, mainly along the upslope-favored higher terrain areas in a post-frontal easterly to northeasterly flow regime.

With southwest flow aloft strengthening as the upper system advances, shear will be sufficient for organized storms. The greatest risk over the Wyoming vicinity will be from locally gusty winds with a few stronger cells, though weak instability will be a limiting factor. Farther east into the Plains, large hail just to the cool side of the front appears to be a possibility with a couple of the strongest storms – particularly after dark. Meanwhile, an isolated storm or two nearer the immediate frontal zone may also be capable of producing damaging wind gusts from late afternoon into the evening hours.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal

..Goss.. 09/18/2018

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, September 18
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: low
Wednesday, September 19
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, September 20
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, September 21
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, September 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, September 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, September 24
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, September 25
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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