Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, November 15

Outlook Summary

Severe potential will exist across eastern North Carolina Thursday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140507

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC

### SUMMARY

Severe potential will exist across eastern North Carolina Thursday.

Eastern NC

Latest short-range model guidance is in better agreement regarding the evolution of an upper low as it migrates across the lower MS Valley and ejects into the middle Atlantic by the end of the day2 period. Intense 12hr mid-level height falls will develop ahead of this feature across the southern Appalachians during the day and this should encourage a surface low to form off the SC coast, then deepen as it lifts north-northeast off the NJ coast by 16/12z. This scenario should allow modified maritime tropical air mass to approach coastal NC ahead of the low, perhaps advancing inland such that near-surface based buoyancy will develop within a strongly sheared environment. Will maintain 5% severe probs for the possibility of a few supercells developing across eastern NC. If a true warm sector is able to move inland then the probability of tornadoes will increase accordingly; otherwise, locally damaging winds may be noted with this activity.

MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD

Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None

..Darrow.. 11/14/2018

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, November 14
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Thursday, November 15
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, November 16
ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, November 17
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, November 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, November 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, November 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, November 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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