Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, February 16

Outlook Summary

Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening from central California through the Oregon coast. Showers and a few thunderstorms are also expected later tonight over a portion of the Tennessee Valley.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 170057

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening from central California through the Oregon coast. Showers and a few thunderstorms are also expected later tonight over a portion of the Tennessee Valley.

Tennessee Valley area

A southwesterly low-level jet will strengthen from the lower MS through TN Valley tonight within the exit region of an intensifying upper jet accompanying a progressive shortwave trough. The resulting theta-e advection will contribute to weak (200-400 J/kg) MUCAPE with the base of the unstable layer near 850 mb. Interaction of the low-level jet with the pre-existing baroclinic zone and deeper ascent accompanying the shortwave trough will promote an increase in elevated convection including a few thunderstorms later tonight.

Central California through western Oregon

The 00Z RAOB data show 7-7.5 C/km lapse rates in the near surface to 500 mb layer along with very weak (100-300 J/kg) MUCAPE. A series of vorticity maxima moving southeastward through the broad upper trough will continue to promote areas of scattered showers. Though overall thermodynamic environment remains very marginal, isolated lightning strikes cannot be ruled out.

..Dial.. 02/17/2019

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Saturday, February 16
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, February 17
ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, February 18
ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, February 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, February 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, February 21
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, February 22
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, February 23
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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